Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
547 PM MDT Friday may 24 2013
Aviation...
00z taf cycle
latest radar and satellite imagery shows isolated stronger storms
across the eastern plains where moisture is more available. More
of the drier variety isolated cells central areas. Will continue to
keep vcsh at abq where the higher based cells are currently near.
Once the sun GOES down...this drier activity with associated gusts
will die off. Eastern plains cells will last through the evening.
Carrying some affects at lvs/row and tcc. Thunderstorms seem to be
very isolated so decided to ramp down to tempo showers and variable
stronger wind gusts. A resurgence of low level moisture will occur
tonight and continue with low ceiling affect...mainly MVFR at this
time...at lvs/tcc and row. Lvs is a bit trickier but suspect that
terminal will be impacted. Look for the low ceilings to burn off middle
to late morning...perhaps as late as 19z but doubt it. Expecting
some East Canyon gap winds affecting saf and abq but would like to
see more convection across the east for the stronger winds. Will
monitor that.
50
&&
Previous discussion...313 PM MDT Friday may 24 2013...
lobes of energy will continue to wobble around an upper level low
pressure system in the vicinity of Washington state through
the weekend. As a result the weather pattern in New Mexico will
remain fairly similar on Saturday as it has been today. Thus...the
generally southerly 700 mb flow that brought smoke and haze into
central nm from wild fires in northern Mexico today should funnel
another round of obscuration into approximately the same area
early Saturday. Its tough to say if the visibility obscuration
Saturday will be as significant as it was this morning...but lower
humidities due to a weaker East Canyon wind tonight should decrease the
size of the haze particles some and thereby decrease their ability
to impact visibility to some extent. Otherwise...another round of
isolated to scatted thunderstorms is expected Saturday afternoon
and evening along and east of the Central Mountain chain. A few
strong to sever thunderstorms will again be possible during the
late afternoon and evening both today and Saturday across mainly
the northeast plains.
An upper level trough will round the base of the upper low and
move into the Great Basin from the west on Sunday. This will cause
southwest winds aloft to strengthen over New Mexico and should allow
clearer air to flow into the area. Breezy conditions will develop
from Socorro to Union counties...with windy conditions in the Lee
of the sangre Delaware cristo mountains due to a moderately strong Lee
surface trough. A stronger downslope component to the surface
wind is expected to shift the dry line farther east on
Sunday...favoring the far eastern plains for mainly isolated
afternoon and evening convection.
The upper level trough over the Great Basin will cross the
northern and central rockies Monday and Monday night. This should keep
winds breezy over New Mexico and shift them more out of the west
southwest. It should also cool temperatures up to 5 degrees in
northern and western areas from sundays readings. The stronger
westerly component to surface winds in the east should relegate
any dryline thunderstorms to the southeast plains near the Texas border on
Monday afternoon and evening.
Precipitation chances may increase over the northwest quarter of the
forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday as another upper level low
pressure system dives through the Great Basin from the northwest. This
system would draw the dryline deeper into new mexicos eastern
plains again with greater coverage of thunderstorms across the
east. Temperatures should continue to cool as the upper level
system approaches with western readings dropping a few to several
degrees below normal Tuesday and eastern readings following suite
on Wednesday. Southwest and perhaps south winds are also likely to
strengthen as the system approaches with breezy conditions
becoming more widespread by Wednesday. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are at
odds on how far south the upper low will dive into the Desert
Southwest Wednesday...with the GFS passing it mainly north of nm
and the European model (ecmwf) bringing it through northern nm
44
Fire weather...
elevated precipitation chances across eastern nm will continue through
Saturday while the west remains very dry. Storms currently firing
up just east of the central Montana chain will continue expanding in
coverage...and the bulk of model guidance indicates the greatest
shot for moderate wetting quantitative precipitation forecast values will be over the NE plains
from Raton and Las Vegas east to the Texas State Line. Gap winds and
moisture intrusion into the Rio Grande Valley this evening will
ultimately depend on how strong the convection is to the east.
Recoveries tonight will be excellent east of the central Montana chain
and poor for all of the west. Saturday will be similar to today
with an overall slight uptick in surface winds and even more
widespread single digit relative humidity values within the Rio Grande Valley.
More storms with decent wetting rainfall are expected for mainly
the southeast and perhaps east Central Plains. A couple isolated locales
of marginal critical fire weather conditions will occur for the NE
Highlands and parts of the west.
Sunday will trend even drier and warmer areawide with increasing
winds and potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions
along and east of the central Montana chain. Will hoist a watch for
this period a little farther out than usual with Holiday weekend
and increased number of folks with outdoor plans. High Haines...
steep lapse rates...and deep mixing all expected. Monday and
Tuesday will be similar for the eastern plains with coverage of
critical conditions potentially widespread as surface low deepens
over southeast Colorado. Recoveries will be trending down each
night all areas through this period...with much of central and
western nm experiencing poor recoveries.
An approaching trough to our west will bring a slight cool down to
the west each afternoon Monday and Tuesday with temperatures below normal.
High Haines and low teens min relative humidity values still exist despite the cool
down in the west. The upper trough is then advertised by some models
to pass north of nm with cooler temperatures but breezy to windy conditions
while some others show another shot of perhaps wetting precipitation for
mainly the high terrain as the upper low travels directly over nm.
Either way...min values will trend out of the single digits and
teens while recoveries improve as well.
Guyer
&&
Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
the following zones...nmz103-104-107-108.
&&
$$
