AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
921 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY FRIDAY AND STALL THERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES FOR 930 UPDATE.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN DROP TO
SEASONALLY COOL LEVELS WITH LOWS IN A 47 TO 53 DEGREE RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
NEAR 90 SAT AND SUN.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE AREA WILL ACT TO KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAPPED...SO ONLY
SEE ISOLATED TSRA AT BEST BY SAT AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY JUST
ISOLATED TSRA FOR SUN ALSO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EASY PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL A
TOUGH CALL ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT WITH 20 TO 30
POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE
UNSTABLE AND SOMEWHAT MOIST...SO THE THREAT WILL BE THERE.
CONFIDENCE IS BETTER ON WEDNESDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROF MOVES IN AND
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREES WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CLOUDS WILL BE A FEW
CUMULUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND OVER THE INTERIOR HILLS OF
NE OHIO INTO NW PA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
INTO THURSDAY. LAKE BREEZE WILL PROVIDE AN ONSHORE FLOW STARTING
LATE MORNING THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
LAKE BREEZE MAY REACH A LINE FROM NEAR KJHW TO KGKJ TO FITCHVILLE
TO KTDZ BY 22Z THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FOR THIS EVENING NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS...SO 1 TO 3 FOOT
WAVES SHOULD HANDLE IT AND THEN THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE.
A RIDGE OVER THE LAKE WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THAT TIME
THE WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE LIGHT. THE WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE WILL
BE MAINLY ONSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS AS THE GRADIENT
WILL BE LIGHT. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY THREAT ON THE LAKE WILL BE A SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS BECAUSE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THAT WOULD BE MAINLY FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA
