AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
220 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL STRENGTHEN ONSHORE FLOW...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
FEW CLOUDS TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS AN OFFSHORE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE REGION/S WEATHER. AT 20Z /1300 PDT/ THIS AFTERNOON...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S...AND WERE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 9 DEGREES AHEAD
OF 20Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY WERE ON TRACK TO PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 47N/130W...WEST OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH TO 33 N. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE WEST OF THE WASHINGTON
COAST BY 18Z /1100 PDT/ TUESDAY WITH THE TROUGH PIVOTING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER BETWEEN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY /2300 PDT
TUESDAY-0500 PDT WEDNESDAY/ WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH...IT WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER AND MARINE AIR COULD SPILL THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF
THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO RANGE...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE.
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH STRONG COOLING AT 850 MB WEDNESDAY.
850-MB TEMPERATURES OVER FRESNO ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM 18 C THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8-9 C BY 18Z /1100 PDT/ WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AND THURSDAY LIKELY WILL BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALIGN
WITH SOME OF THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
THE WINDS ALOFT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THESE PASSES AND CANYONS...WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH IN THE KERN DESERTS BELOW THESE FAVORED SITES.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
HIGHWAY 58 FROM THE TEHACHAPI PASS THROUGH MOJAVE AND ON HIGHWAY 14
FROM MOJAVE TO RED ROCK CANYON.
ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE ECMWF FORECASTS A SHORT-WAVE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW
IS FORECAST AND SWING ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST A STRONGER TROUGH TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE GFS BRINGS SOME QPF TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR MEMORIAL
DAY WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TUESDAY. HAVE PENCILED IN GHOST POPS FOR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /TUESDAY WOULD BE DAY 8...BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD./
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 05-20 102:1947 61:1921 71:1897 44:1962
KFAT 05-21 104:1892 56:1933 69:2001 42:1975
KFAT 05-22 104:1967 67:2010 71:1892 43:1909
KBFL 05-20 103:1942 65:1923 70:2001 42:1902
KBFL 05-21 103:1988 65:1903 71:2001 42:1902
KBFL 05-22 102:2001 68:2010 73:1967 36:1903
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...PJ
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
