Tropical Storm Chris formed; other disturbances to watch
Earlier today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated Invest 95L as Tropical Storm Chris, the third named storm of the season. Additionally, Chris is the third earliest third named storm in the Atlantic basin on record; only Atlantic seasons in 1887 and 1959 had their third named storm earlier than this date. Latest NHC advisory states that Chris has winds of 45 mph and pressure of 1005 mbar. The cyclone is located roughly 565 miles south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Recent satellite image shows that Chris is maintaining relatively deep convection as it moves east-southeastward.
Forecast for Chris
Chris is predicted to accelerate generally eastward in the westerly flow over the next 24 hours or so. Afterwards, the cyclone is expected to turn northward and then northwestward. Chris is not anticipated to threaten any land masses. Slight change is forecasted for Chris during the next 36 hours or so as the storm is over marginally cool sea surface temperatures and in moderate shear. After that time, however, Chris is expected to become an extratropical cyclone, and eventually be absorbed by another extratropical low in the next 96 hours.
Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Chris. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's (CSU) RAMMB imagery.
Northwestern Caribbean disturbance needs to be watched
Meanwhile, in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, there is a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This disturbance needs to be watched for the next several days as development of tropical cyclone is possible. The tropical disturbance is bringing heavy rains to Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Bahamas, and southern Florida, and will likely to continue during the next couple of days.
The disturbance is expected to move northwestward to west-northwestward during the next several days under the influence of the southern periphery of the large high pressure ridge over eastern United States. The disturbance is forecasted to enter in the Gulf of Mexico after that time. CIMSS analysis shows that the disturbance is in a moderate to high wind shear with 20 to 30 knots. The shear will likely retard development of the disturbance during the next few days. Global models, including GFS and ECMWF, develop the disturbance into a possibly large tropical cyclone on the Gulf of Mexico by the next 72 to 96 hours. The NHC is giving the tropical disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 2 days.
Pacific disturbance unlikely to become tropical cyclone
An eastern Pacific tropical disturbance (Invest 95E) appears that it would not develop into a tropical cyclone. 95E is situated about 225 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Latest satellite loop depicts the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with 95E continues to diminish as the disturbance is slowly moving west-southwestward. Both dry air and moderate shear shifted the shower and thunderstorm activity away from the low-level center of 95E; it indicates that the disturbance is weakening. The environmental conditions are forecasted to be not favorable for 95E to organize and strengthen. The NHC gives 95E a 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours; however I believe the odds should be near 0%. I expect no further development of 95E. Nevertheless, the disturbance is continuing to bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Pacific coast of Mexico until the next day or so.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite imagery of Invest 95E. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's (CSU) RAMMB imagery.