Powerful Norbert takes aim at Mexico's Baja

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:45 PM GMT am 09. Oktober 2008

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The tropical Atlantic is quiet, and no reliable computer models forecast tropical cyclone development over the next four days. The UKMET model continues to predict a tropical depression could spin up in the middle Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands about five days from now. Climatology does not favor development in this region in October. A better chance for development will be over the Caribbean a week from now, and most of the models indicate the possibility of a Caribbean storm developing 5-7 days from now. The preferred genesis locations in the models are near the coast of Nicaragua, and near Puerto Rico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Norbert.

Hurricane Norbert takes aim at Baja
Hurricane Norbert has weakened since yesterday's impressive Category 4 showing, but still remains a dangerous major hurricane over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Infrared satellite loops show a well-formed eye with a large area of heavy thunderstorms, but the cloud tops have warmed today, indicating that they are not as vigorous and do not extend as high into the atmosphere. There is excellent upper-level outflow in all quadrants, and wind shear remains low, near 5 knots. The satellite appearance has not changed significantly in the past eight hours. Norbert may go through an eyewall replacement cycle today, where the main inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms. This process could cause a temporary weakening of the storm. The first Hurricane Hunter mission into Norbert is scheduled for this afternoon.

With the exception of the GFS, the computer models continue to be tightly clustered around a landfall in southwestern Baja near San Carlos, 150 miles north of the southern tip of Baja, on Saturday afternoon. The GFS solution of Norbert stalling off the coast and dissipating is unrealistic. Wind shear is about 5 knots over Norbert, and the waters are a warm 28.5°C. The waters along Norbert's path are unusually warm for this time of year, about 1-3° C above average (Figure 2). However, these warm waters do not extend very deep, and the total oceanic heat content is low. Once Norbert crosses Baja and enters the Gulf of California, total heat content increases, but Norbert will not be over these warm waters long enough to take advantage of the extra heat. As Norbert approaches Baja on Friday, wind shear is expected to increase to 15 knots and sea surface temperatures will cool to 27°C. These conditions will still support a major hurricane, and it is possible that Norbert will make landfall as a major hurricane. The latest 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model predicts landfall Saturday afternoon as a strong Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. The latest HWRF model predicts a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. The SHIPS models is weaker, putting Norbert at Category 1 strength with 95 mph winds. The official NHC forecast of a Category 2 hurricane at landfall looks like a reasonable compromise. Tropical storm force winds should extend outwards about 130 miles at landfall, so the southern tip of Baja (San Lucas) will probably see sustained winds of 30-35 mph, should Norbert hit near San Carlos. One can look at the forecast radius of tropical storm force winds by clicking on the wundermap for Norbert, then selecting "wind radius" in the check boxes at the bottom of the page.

Crossing rugged Baja will probably knock Norbert down a full Category, by about 20-25 mph. The storm will still pack a solid punch when it makes it second landfall on mainland Mexico north of Los Mochis. Rainfall amounts in mainland Mexico will be 4-8 inches, and 6-10 inches over Baja. Norbert's remains should bring 1-2 inches of rain to portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for October 6, 2008. Note the region being traversed by Norbert is 1-3 °C above average. Image credit: NOAA.

Baja hurricane history
Major hurricanes are rare on the Pacific Coast of Mexico, particularly as far north as Baja. Since record keeping began in 1949, only two Category 3 or stronger hurricanes have hit Baja (Figure 3). Hurricane Kiko of 1989 hit the east coast of Baja near Buenavista, as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Kiko produced destructive winds of up to 110 mph (180 km/h) in Cabo San Lucas, and caused severe damage throughout the southern tip of Baja California. Hurricane Oliva of 1967 made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds farther north on the east coast of Baja, in a sparsely populated area. No major hurricanes have hit the west coast of Baja since 1949, so Norbert would be the first on record if it maintains Category 3 strength at landfall.


Figure 3. Tracks of major hurricanes affecting Mexico's Baja Peninsula between 1949-2007. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.


Thursday update on Hurricane Ike relief efforts
Today's update from Paul Timmons (Presslord) on the Hurricane Ike relief effort started by wunderground members Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie:

While the devastating aftermath of hurricane Ike seems no longer to capture the interest of mainstream media, we all know that the needs continue. Chief Dickie Uzzle of the Bridge City, TX, fire department has informed us that only 14 homes in that community (population: 8700) did not sustain ruinous water damage. Many families continue to live in tents in front of their homes, with ALL of their personal belongings piled in the yard awaiting removal.

Laura Cremans, Manager of the Churches of Christ distribution center in Bridge City tells us " Only one truck of supplies has come here since Ike made landfall. We are desperate here."

This is the list of specific needs that we are currently attaining and working to attain for the rural populations and the disabilities community along the Texas Gulf Coast. We have worked closely with several local relief efforts as well as municipalities to identify these needs.


Undergarments
Socks
Men's & Women's Clothing (we already have a commitment for a substantial number of men's and women's pants)

Air Mattresses
Blankets/Sleeping bags
Tents
Insect repellent
All baby items
Formula (We have a commitment from Meade-Johnson to provide some of this)
Diapers
Rash cream
Wipes
Bottles


Our strategy is to focus on attaining as many of these items as possible through donations from manufacturers and distributors. In the last three and a half days, we have made several dozen contacts to this end and are beginning to get positive results; but we need your help.

If you have any contacts or influence which might facilitate us procuring the items listed above please contact us at presslord@aol.com or admin@stormjunkie.com. All your thoughts and ideas are good. The more input we have, the more impact we can have.This will help us successfully implement our strategy of expending donated funds primarily on transportation and logistics of moving donated goods. In this way, we can most effectively steward the donated funds in the most cost effective manner.

Moving forward...

Moving through October we are committed to adjusting our fund raising effort to leverage the grassroots enthusiasm and generosity generated by our Hurricane Ike relief work.  A more proactive approach will enhance our future effectiveness. We are asking you to consider committing to a monthly pledge amount.  The amount you pledge is less important then the consistency.  A dependable monthly donor base will allow us to strategically plan and prepare for the future and help us successfully execute those plans over the long term. 

Please give thoughtful, prayerful consideration to committing to a monthly pledge amount beginning November 1 and email your intentions to presslord@aol.com.

There is much work yet to be done in helping the victims of Ike. And there will certainly be other victims of other storms we can all serve. By continuing to work together as we have the last 3 1/2 weeks, we can have a profound positive impact on thousands of unserved, underserved, and forgotten people...

Also, please remember: we should all forward this information far and
wide...and frequently..

Thanks!!!!!


Figure 3. Bridge City, Texas, after Hurricane Ike. Image credit: Stormjunkie.

Contributions to this highly worthy portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

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653. IKE
03:04 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting TheTracker08:
I love hurricanes... not the death or the destrustion... my house was taken away by wilma, and yet, i still love them... i would do anything to gwt hit by a cat 1 this year!


Maybe you should have lived right on the coast of SE Texas and you would have gotten you're wish.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
652. cchsweatherman
02:29 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting futuremet:


All the computer models unanimously agree that 97L will go out to sea.

Now, the tropical wave near the windward islands is a different story. If it develops, there is a chance it might not go out to sea. However, whether it does or not strongly depends on the trough's potency......Link


Quoting antonio28:
97L is a fish storm forescast, models in aggrement with that even thought I think have chancee to develop, western caribbean is the area to watch over the next couple of days.


Need I remind you both about model consensus. Just remember that the model consensus with Hurricane Ike had Ike hitting South Florida one day and just 24 hours later, the Gulf Coast. It ended up making landfall in Northern Texas, over one thousand miles from where it was originally forecasted by models to strike. That is why I have made such a staunch statement not to let your guard down just yet. Wait for the elements to unfold and the scenario to occur before letting your guards down.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
651. RTLSNK
02:21 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
BBL, have to drive "She who must be obeyed" to the foot Doctor!!
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22130
650. sporteguy03
02:20 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting TheTracker08:
I love hurricanes... not the death or the destrustion... my house was taken away by wilma, and yet, i still love them... i would do anything to gwt hit by a cat 1 this year!


Stormstruck at Epcot check it out.
Member Since: Juli 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
649. TheTracker08
02:18 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
orca, make fun of me, i dont care, ive crossed hundreds of people like that before, i will never change my opinion!
648. surfmom
02:16 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
I've gone pirate -- definitely prefer those bars of yellow. Cause the paper went out the window, but those little chunks are still buried treasure
Member Since: Juli 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
647. TheTracker08
02:16 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
P t. what is that?
646. Orcasystems
02:16 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting TheTracker08:
I love hurricanes... not the death or the destrustion... my house was taken away by wilma, and yet, i still love them... i would do anything to gwt hit by a cat 1 this year!

Cat1.. I feel a slight breeze coming.. yup..there it is.. poof
Member Since: Oktober 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
645. Seastep
02:15 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
While watching 97L, I'm not taking my eyes off the carib... area around 12.5N/75W most interesting right now...
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
644. surfmom
02:15 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
"Troughs Potency" hummm I like that line
Member Since: Juli 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
643. antonio28
02:14 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting futuremet:


lol I am an idiot when it comes to economy and politics.

what is NASDAQ, DAW, JONES?



LOL people money, company stock markets do you have 401K???
Member Since: Juli 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 799
642. sporteguy03
02:14 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting futuremet:


lol I am an idiot when it comes to economy and politics.

what is NASDAQ, DAW, JONES?


Dow Jones???
Member Since: Juli 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
641. surfmom
02:14 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
640thetracker -- hey what ever turns you on....don't think I wanna know what else your into P&T?
Member Since: Juli 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
640. TheTracker08
02:12 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
I love hurricanes... not the death or the destrustion... my house was taken away by wilma, and yet, i still love them... i would do anything to gwt hit by a cat 1 this year!
639. futuremet
02:12 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


the Dow Jones is still down over 900 points


lol I am an idiot when it comes to economy and politics.

what is NASDAQ, DAW, JONES?
Member Since: Juli 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
638. sporteguy03
02:12 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting IKE:


Actually it formed at 17.6N and that was on September 1st. It's now October 10th...different ball game.


Who you got in the Championship series Ike?
Member Since: Juli 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
637. antonio28
02:11 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
97L is a fish storm forescast, models in aggrement with that even thought I think have chancee to develop, western caribbean is the area to watch over the next couple of days.
Member Since: Juli 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 799
636. futuremet
02:11 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I have seen that with the computer models this morning, but I have learned from storms like Ike not to take computer models as rule since things can quickly change. I never let my guard down until I see such a situation unfolding and occuring.


All the computer models unanimously agree that 97L will go out to sea.

Now, the tropical wave near the windward islands is a different story. If it develops, there is a chance it might not go out to sea. However, whether it does or not strongly depends on the trough's potency......Link
Member Since: Juli 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
635. champagnedrmz
02:08 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting BeanTech:


Hey.. no fair...head start on the weekend.
Where is my margarita girl, damn it...


Bean who you calling a girl? Your silly.
634. surfmom
02:07 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting RTLSNK:
577 - Google Satellite

"GeoEye-1's main client is the U.S. Government's mapping arm, The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency."

Ringggggggggg
Hello?
Is this CDS?
Yes, who is this?
This is NGIA, we noticed your license plate out in front of the Platinum Plus Club at 1:00 AM Sat night!!
No,no,no, that wasn't me Sir, really, my son in law was invited to a bachleor party that night and borrowed my SUV to take all the guys with him, I Swear!!!!
Uh huh, we're watching you RTLSNK.
We have arrived to THE BRAVE NEW WORLD and I don't think it's good news
Member Since: Juli 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
632. Orcasystems
02:06 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting TheTracker08:
ike, just saying my opinion, people are entitled to their own opinions. im not losing sleep tonight over it either, ya wanna know why?

No
Member Since: Oktober 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
631. futuremet
02:06 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
97L will likely go out to sea.
Member Since: Juli 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
630. cchsweatherman
02:06 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting futuremet:


cchs, a mesocale trough is expected to form near 60w and 40n. This trough will cause a weakness on the ridge, or even bisect it. Subsequently, 97L will move north along the ridge axis, and eventually northeast as it interacts with the trough.


I have seen that with the computer models this morning, but I have learned from storms like Ike not to take computer models as rule since things can quickly change. I never let my guard down until I see such a situation unfolding and occuring.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
629. TheTracker08
02:04 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
ike, just saying my opinion, people are entitled to their own opinions. im not losing sleep tonight over it either, ya wanna know why?
628. futuremet
02:03 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Ike,

If this hurricane season has taught everyone nothing else, it is to expect the unexpected and that Mother Nature knows no rules and always ignores climatology. Don't sound so confident until it happens. Never let your guard down.


cchs, a mesocale trough is expected to form near 60w and 40n. This trough will cause a weakness on the ridge, or even bisect it. Subsequently, 97L will move north along the ridge axis, and eventually northeast as it interacts with the trough.
Member Since: Juli 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
627. Orcasystems
02:02 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Ok, I am off for a bit.. I have enough cheap over the counter pharmaceuticals that I washed down with three cups of coffee..I am spinning and dizzy like a top.

Hmm and I have to go to work yet... sheesh, its going to be one of those days.

Member Since: Oktober 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
626. TheTracker08
02:01 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
look at the caribbean, the bay of campeche, what do you see? i see alot of concentreated batches of disturbed weather, 97 L is not alone
625. capefearspt
02:01 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
I guess it's "Bash Ike" day today...
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
624. IKE
02:00 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting MichaelSTL:


What about your namesake? How often does a storm that forms at 20N in the far eastern Atlantic hit Texas (much less the U.S.)?


Actually it formed at 17.6N and that was on September 1st. It's now October 10th...different ball game.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
623. RTLSNK
02:00 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
577 - Google Satellite

"GeoEye-1's main client is the U.S. Government's mapping arm, The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency."

Ringggggggggg
Hello?
Is this CDS?
Yes, who is this?
This is NGIA, we noticed your license plate out in front of the Platinum Plus Club at 1:00 AM Sat night!!
No,no,no, that wasn't me Sir, really, my son in law was invited to a bachleor party that night and borrowed my SUV to take all the guys with him, I Swear!!!!
Uh huh, we're watching you RTLSNK.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22130
621. IKE
01:57 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting TheTracker08:
IKE fine you win, im getting my degree in meteorology! the only thing that bothers me is that you say " its going out to sea" you honestly think you can just brush a strom off?!?! i dont think so


I won't lose a minutes worth of sleep over it tonight.

Yeah...I'm brushing it off.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
620. cchsweatherman
01:57 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting IKE:
New model runs on 97L...out-to-sea....



Apparently Hurricane Ike didn't teach you anything regarding computer model consensus.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
619. Seastep
01:57 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
LOL... they heard me... it's fixed. :)
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
618. Seastep
01:55 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
8325 is approx 250 drop from yesterday
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
617. TheTracker08
01:54 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
oh, and just so ya know!!! models are sometimes very wrong!!
616. Seastep
01:53 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
um look here

finance.yahoo.com

at one point it was down over 14%

at 1300 point drop


Well, somethings wrong with it...

It says right now 8324 and down 935... that would mean it closed at almost 9300 yesterday... it did not.

I would suggest a new source...
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
615. TheTracker08
01:51 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
IKE fine you win, im getting my degree in meteorology! the only thing that bothers me is that you say " its going out to sea" you honestly think you can just brush a strom off?!?! i dont think so
613. Orcasystems
01:50 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Invest ... 97L
Member Since: Oktober 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
612. IKE
01:49 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
New model runs on 97L...out-to-sea....

Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
611. fireflymom
01:48 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting surfmom:
ColdPlay
Drop Kick Murphy
Member Since: Juni 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
610. TheTracker08
01:48 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Thank you CCHSweatherman!! exactly whats on my mind!!
609. IKE
01:48 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Ike,

If this hurricane season has taught everyone nothing else, it is to expect the unexpected and that Mother Nature knows no rules and always ignores climatology. Don't sound so confident until it happens. Never let your guard down.


97L will never make it to the USA.

"Always ignores climatology"?
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
608. Seastep
01:48 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
thundercloud, that is impossible. trading is automatically suspended if 10% drop.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
607. cchsweatherman
01:48 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


the Dow Jones is still down over 900 points


Watching the numbers come in from CNN. Could you provide me with the link where you're getting your information from? Thanks.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
606. fireflymom
01:47 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Does that wall street Low show up on google earth? I will find and read that Surfmom, would also vote for Captain Jack or Kinky Friedman over the current choices.. Weathering this financial storm will be more difficult for those who have lost their homes and cars due to IKE.
Member Since: Juni 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
605. surfmom
01:47 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting BeanTech:
We need some music to cheer up the mood of the blog this morning...any requests?
ColdPlay
Member Since: Juli 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
604. cchsweatherman
01:47 PM GMT am 10. Oktober 2008
Quoting IKE:


Mid-October.
Models.
Troughs moving off of the east coast.

97L will never make it to the United States.
The islands? Doubtful.


Ike,

If this hurricane season has taught everyone nothing else, it is to expect the unexpected and that Mother Nature knows no rules and always ignores climatology. Don't sound so confident until it happens. Never let your guard down.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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