Powerful Norbert takes aim at Mexico's Baja
The tropical Atlantic is quiet, and no reliable computer models forecast tropical cyclone development over the next four days. The UKMET model continues to predict a tropical depression could spin up in the middle Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands about five days from now. Climatology does not favor development in this region in October. A better chance for development will be over the Caribbean a week from now, and most of the models indicate the possibility of a Caribbean storm developing 5-7 days from now. The preferred genesis locations in the models are near the coast of Nicaragua, and near Puerto Rico.
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Norbert.
Hurricane Norbert takes aim at Baja
Hurricane Norbert has weakened since yesterday's impressive Category 4 showing, but still remains a dangerous major hurricane over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Infrared satellite loops show a well-formed eye with a large area of heavy thunderstorms, but the cloud tops have warmed today, indicating that they are not as vigorous and do not extend as high into the atmosphere. There is excellent upper-level outflow in all quadrants, and wind shear remains low, near 5 knots. The satellite appearance has not changed significantly in the past eight hours. Norbert may go through an eyewall replacement cycle today, where the main inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms. This process could cause a temporary weakening of the storm. The first Hurricane Hunter mission into Norbert is scheduled for this afternoon.
With the exception of the GFS, the computer models continue to be tightly clustered around a landfall in southwestern Baja near San Carlos, 150 miles north of the southern tip of Baja, on Saturday afternoon. The GFS solution of Norbert stalling off the coast and dissipating is unrealistic. Wind shear is about 5 knots over Norbert, and the waters are a warm 28.5°C. The waters along Norbert's path are unusually warm for this time of year, about 1-3° C above average (Figure 2). However, these warm waters do not extend very deep, and the total oceanic heat content is low. Once Norbert crosses Baja and enters the Gulf of California, total heat content increases, but Norbert will not be over these warm waters long enough to take advantage of the extra heat. As Norbert approaches Baja on Friday, wind shear is expected to increase to 15 knots and sea surface temperatures will cool to 27°C. These conditions will still support a major hurricane, and it is possible that Norbert will make landfall as a major hurricane. The latest 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model predicts landfall Saturday afternoon as a strong Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. The latest HWRF model predicts a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. The SHIPS models is weaker, putting Norbert at Category 1 strength with 95 mph winds. The official NHC forecast of a Category 2 hurricane at landfall looks like a reasonable compromise. Tropical storm force winds should extend outwards about 130 miles at landfall, so the southern tip of Baja (San Lucas) will probably see sustained winds of 30-35 mph, should Norbert hit near San Carlos. One can look at the forecast radius of tropical storm force winds by clicking on the wundermap for Norbert, then selecting "wind radius" in the check boxes at the bottom of the page.
Crossing rugged Baja will probably knock Norbert down a full Category, by about 20-25 mph. The storm will still pack a solid punch when it makes it second landfall on mainland Mexico north of Los Mochis. Rainfall amounts in mainland Mexico will be 4-8 inches, and 6-10 inches over Baja. Norbert's remains should bring 1-2 inches of rain to portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico.
Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for October 6, 2008. Note the region being traversed by Norbert is 1-3 °C above average. Image credit: NOAA.
Baja hurricane history
Major hurricanes are rare on the Pacific Coast of Mexico, particularly as far north as Baja. Since record keeping began in 1949, only two Category 3 or stronger hurricanes have hit Baja (Figure 3). Hurricane Kiko of 1989 hit the east coast of Baja near Buenavista, as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Kiko produced destructive winds of up to 110 mph (180 km/h) in Cabo San Lucas, and caused severe damage throughout the southern tip of Baja California. Hurricane Oliva of 1967 made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds farther north on the east coast of Baja, in a sparsely populated area. No major hurricanes have hit the west coast of Baja since 1949, so Norbert would be the first on record if it maintains Category 3 strength at landfall.
Figure 3. Tracks of major hurricanes affecting Mexico's Baja Peninsula between 1949-2007. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Thursday update on Hurricane Ike relief efforts
Today's update from Paul Timmons (Presslord) on the Hurricane Ike relief effort started by wunderground members Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie:
While the devastating aftermath of hurricane Ike seems no longer to capture the interest of mainstream media, we all know that the needs continue. Chief Dickie Uzzle of the Bridge City, TX, fire department has informed us that only 14 homes in that community (population: 8700) did not sustain ruinous water damage. Many families continue to live in tents in front of their homes, with ALL of their personal belongings piled in the yard awaiting removal.
Laura Cremans, Manager of the Churches of Christ distribution center in Bridge City tells us " Only one truck of supplies has come here since Ike made landfall. We are desperate here."
This is the list of specific needs that we are currently attaining and working to attain for the rural populations and the disabilities community along the Texas Gulf Coast. We have worked closely with several local relief efforts as well as municipalities to identify these needs.
Undergarments
Socks
Men's & Women's Clothing (we already have a commitment for a substantial number of men's and women's pants)
Air Mattresses
Blankets/Sleeping bags
Tents
Insect repellent
All baby items
Formula (We have a commitment from Meade-Johnson to provide some of this)
Diapers
Rash cream
Wipes
Bottles
Our strategy is to focus on attaining as many of these items as possible through donations from manufacturers and distributors. In the last three and a half days, we have made several dozen contacts to this end and are beginning to get positive results; but we need your help.
If you have any contacts or influence which might facilitate us procuring the items listed above please contact us at presslord@aol.com or admin@stormjunkie.com. All your thoughts and ideas are good. The more input we have, the more impact we can have.This will help us successfully implement our strategy of expending donated funds primarily on transportation and logistics of moving donated goods. In this way, we can most effectively steward the donated funds in the most cost effective manner.
Moving forward...
Moving through October we are committed to adjusting our fund raising effort to leverage the grassroots enthusiasm and generosity generated by our Hurricane Ike relief work. A more proactive approach will enhance our future effectiveness. We are asking you to consider committing to a monthly pledge amount. The amount you pledge is less important then the consistency. A dependable monthly donor base will allow us to strategically plan and prepare for the future and help us successfully execute those plans over the long term.
Please give thoughtful, prayerful consideration to committing to a monthly pledge amount beginning November 1 and email your intentions to presslord@aol.com.
There is much work yet to be done in helping the victims of Ike. And there will certainly be other victims of other storms we can all serve. By continuing to work together as we have the last 3 1/2 weeks, we can have a profound positive impact on thousands of unserved, underserved, and forgotten people...
Also, please remember: we should all forward this information far and
wide...and frequently..
Thanks!!!!!
Figure 3. Bridge City, Texas, after Hurricane Ike. Image credit: Stormjunkie.
Contributions to this highly worthy portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Well he is right. There is no activity as of now. Maybe in the next 48-72 hours there may be something, but now its calm.
LOL. Oh yeah, Marco. Come on. For one I am talking about the tropics here. LOL, yeah Marco was a Tropical Storm but I have seen afternoon thunderstorms here in S. Fla that looked more impressive than Marco.
He says 'The season ended early this year'.
Oh well thats a stupid statement to say when theres another month plus the post season storms.
Shouldn't you be doing homework?
it's way too late in the year
Name a storm this year that was normal.
LOL. I know I need to do mine.
Arthur as TD 1 before it makes land fall in the Yucatan, then upgraded to Arthur as it made landfall.
Bertha as a Category 4 hurricane, Satellite data indicated Bertha reached Category 4 strength and even the NHC said in their discussion that Bertha might have been stronger before they issued that advisory.
Fay upgraded as a Minimal Hurricane over land or as it made landfall.
Gustav as a Category 5 as it hit, this seems almost likely, due to the fact they recorded not just one 200 MPH gust, but several, in fact one station recorded a 213 MPH wind gust.
Ike maybe as a Category 3 as it hit Galveston, I kinda doubt it, but stations recorded gusts equal of that of what a Category 3 Hurricane would have.
An Unnamed storm (94L) formed and makes landfall in the Carolina's.
Whats everyone elses opinion?
Not normal for a "C" storm to form in July.
Also, can someone tell me how to move a picture from my wunderground account to my blog icon? Thanks
impressive =O
this year has been weird and the fact that its way to late for storm there doesn't matter. What matters is the conditions that systems has to develop.
how is the shear with this one Drak?
Melwerle - I am the same kind of Mom -- can't just witness poor judgement when it comes to the lives of little ones. maybe they'll get the hint maybe not --but at least you cared!!n I always speak respectfully and don't put them down... but I can't just not care. When people let their kids play in the pool during a T-storm -- I'm incredulous....put an article about lightening in their mailbox LOL
Took a peak at the weather and we got our first POLO game of the season. Looks like we won't have to deal with any major rain this evening. After a long hard, hot summer of work -- the play starts today...my young buck is happy
later tonight folks
Shear is around 15 knots but could become more favorable for development as the system moves to the West or WNW.
Bad news for the Yucatan peninsula.
Terrible news with the DJIA falling another 500+ points.
don't talk about the economy on here I had Jeff email me about someone emailing him about me posting on it
Only storm this year that might have been close to normal is Edouard.
So with wind shear at 15knots and becoming more favorable, warm ssts and a favorable MJO everything is set for this one
but I guess we can have all the ingredients and nothing forming =\
What are the chances of it becoming a depression?
Hes a Kid. Not that surprising.
The GFS and NOGAPS have it coming close to Florida so we will see. Long-range is highly suspect.
Yeah...lets only talk about a cloud out in the middle of the Atlantic while our economy is bombing.
***Not directed toward you.***
AUSTIN, Texas – The destruction caused by hurricane Ike leaves many residents, small business owners and people who are out of work vulnerable to fraudulent offers of help. As a result, Texans continue to be the target of three familiar scams. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Texas Governor’s Division of Emergency Management (TXGDEM) say fraud remains a problem in the affected areas.
It’s important to be aware of three scams that always seem to pop up after a disaster. But Texans should know the following examples by no means exhaust the possibilities.
1.) Phony contract workers: After life sustaining items like food, water and shelter are met, repair contracting is at the top of the list of most needed services. Anyone whose home or apartment was damaged needs the services of a contractor and is eager to find one. If the home’s damage is plainly visible, a phony contractor may see it as an opportunity to make fast money. The “contractor” knocks on the door offering to make repairs. This is an offer homeowners should refuse. Legitimate contractors will have more work then they could handle after a disaster. What are some of the ways to avoid this scam?
Use licensed local contractors, ask for references and check them before entering into a contract.
Ask for a written estimate from at least 3 contractors, including labor and materials. Read the fine print.
Make sure the contractor carries general liability insurance and workers' compensation. If he or she is not insured, you may be liable for accidents that occur on your property.
2.) Fake offers of help getting state or federal aid: A Texas woman claiming to help residents get federal assistance was caught collecting personal information, including Social Security numbers. Some scam artists walk around carrying a clipboard with official looking forms; this is no proof they are with a state, federal or voluntary agency serving those affected by the disaster. What should you do if you suspect an offer for help is fake?
Don’t reveal personal information when you are unsure of the person or organization. FEMA-contracted inspectors call to schedule an appointment before visiting a home, always wear a photo ID and know the applicant’s name and registration number.
Contact FEMA. Call 1-800-621-FEMA (3362) or TTY 1-800-462-7585 for people with speech or hearing needs. FEMA is the place to get state or federal help and to find out what other organizations offer disaster assistance.
Never pay a fee for help. Remember FEMA never charges for disaster assistance.
3.) Bogus Hurricane Ike solicitations: It can be hard to resist online pleas for a donation to help Hurricane Ike survivors. Many who may not have suffered damage themselves are often eager to help fellow Texans in need. A solicitation may arrive by email, someone may call or you may get a knock at the door; the person asks for a donation to a hurricane relief fund. What can you do to be sure the request for funds is legitimate?
Research fully the charitable organization they claim to represent by getting an exact name and phone number.
Call the charity directly and confirm the person asking for funds is an employee or volunteer.
Ask how the funds will be used.
If you decide to give, write a check in the name of the charity and get a receipt.
Report suspicious or fraudulent activity you know about to the Consumer Complaint Hotline at
(800) 252-8011 or file a complaint online at www.texasattorneygeneral.gov
Climatology doesn't dictate to what may or may not form. It's just a tool used for some guidance. Climatology is going put 50 knots of wind shear over something that has 5-10 knots of wind shear over it.
I totally appreciate the phone calls if my kids are misbehaving...one time daugther was holding hands with some kid at a school fair and they were looking kind of friendly...I got THREE phone calls within about 1/2 hour.
Talking about a small town...
Weather seems to be clearing here - everything moving to the east before it's getting to us...
One I would say is that Marco becoming a cat. 1 hurricane.
Think i knew that lol but either way in my view development in october close to home can have potential to cause problems.Anything out in the eastern/central atlantic would likely get steered north sooner rather then later.
(I'm not lying, I really have to do it)
8 hours...
48 minutes...
and the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is over.
If you knew that then why would you say climatology doesn't favor development out there. That's a definitive statement. Something that would be more insightful and have more impact is to find current reasons why it would not develop. That view is more objective.
Tropical cyclones dont keep track of dates.
Watch. We'll have a December storm now just to spite your counting. :(
It is what it is.
LOL...I edited it...
Just not wasteing my time in looking out in the eastern/central in almost mid october.
I'll look at the whole basin.
Just like we shouldn't be 'wasting our time' looking out in the central/eastern Atlantic for Cape Verdes in mid-late June, early July?
Wonder what Bertha would say about that...
Odile's track may change, but I doubt it. Seems to be a fairly solid ridge across the Gulf that'll keep it from making landfall. However, just incase, it's best to watch.
Blizzard Warning for Alaska.
Winter Storm Watch for South/North Dakota and points west.
---------------------------------------------
Tropics
I expect we will see another hurricane in the East Pacific at anytime from now to 2days.
1-2 more storms in the Atlantic within the hurricane season. 1-2 more after season.
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