A late look at Invest93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 06:52 AM GMT am 27. Juni 2009

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Hi everybody, this is Rob Carver, R&D Scientist for Wunderground, filling in for Jeff Masters.

Summary of the situation

In the Tropical Weather Outlook NHC has tagged a tropical wave in the NW Caribbean Sea as Invest93L and believes that it has a 30-50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. As of now (11 PM PDT, June 26), the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this area on June 28. The track models have Invest93L moving through the Yucatan Straits into the Gulf of Mexico. After that, most of the models take the cyclone north and east making landfall along a wide swath of Florida's Gulf Coast on Wednesday of next week. The intensity models predict that at landfall, the system will be a weak Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm.


Figure 1. Plot of upper-level wind shear from CIMSS

Wind Shear Aloft

The wind shear patterns are favorable for intensification of Invest93L if it can make it through the Yucatan Straits. Figure 1 shows that currently, Invest93L is an unfavorable environment, with shear > 20 knots. However, north of the Yucatan Straits and SW of Florida, the shear drops to a favorable 5 knots. Both the GFS and NAM predict that that this shear pattern will be fairly constant over the next several days. Also, the water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are either normal or slightly above normal, so that will be favorable for storm development.

What happens next?
If Invest93L can survive long enough to get in the Gulf of Mexico, then I believe it can develop into TS Ana, the first named storm of the year. However, survival is not guaranteed, the convection around Invest93L is not that persistent. That said, people with interests along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on this storm this weekend and into the early part of the next week.

Rob Carver

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2162. Drakoen
Update CIMSS showed that the system has drastically lost a lot convergence. It's not that great to have a ton of divergence and little convergence since most of the energy gets focus on the upper levels rather than the surface. There is still a good 850mb vort maxima.
Member Since: Oktober 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29934
Quoting Drakoen:
What JFV did yesterday you HAD to be there. I almost died laughing.


I always miss the good stuff!
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2160. GatorWX
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'd agree with you Gatorwx, except that he is somehow compelling, the sublimeness of his silliness is hard to cut off.


He seems sort of intelligent, but if he spends all his time trying to get under everyone's skin on a weather blog....I mean. Don't you have a girlfriend or something??? You know, but I think if we just ignore him, it'll slowly end.
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Quoting Drakoen:
What JFV did yesterday you HAD to be there. I almost died laughing.


That was really unbelievable. When you think someone has flagged someone to Admin and it turns out to be you how hilarious is that ??
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Have a good sleep, 456.

K'man! Our eagle-eye swirl spotter! :) How's it going, friend? The golf game? Family?


All is well thanks and hopefully the same for you. 93L is a teaser,so far about 3 false starts at developing.

Anyway, we got some much needed rain so I am happy.
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Imagine if everyone put certain bloggers on ignore. And no one would see the comments to then comment on the comments just to have the rest of us see the comments. what a wonderful blog it would be.
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2154. Drakoen
What JFV did yesterday you HAD to be there. I almost died laughing.
Member Since: Oktober 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29934
2153. Skyepony (Mod)
Conchy~ I did catch the launch. It was earlier than I expected so no photo. Beautiful, nice to see a Backup GOES on the way up. I may look around. I bet they test it out before they park it. Each one has been better than the one before.
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2152. Mikla
Historical plot (with 93) on some of the storms that passed through that area since 2000...
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2151. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:


Like rubbernecking at a wreck. You want to stop looking but just can't


I have to agree. JFV keeps me entertained. Maybe he should look into comedy where he can just be himself lol!
Member Since: Oktober 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29934
2149. GatorWX
Quoting Patrap:
2128,,best Post-Of-Da-Day


God Bless ya soldier!
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Quoting kmanislander:


Like rubbernecking at a wreck. You want to stop looking but just can't


He provides great comic relief.
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2147. Drakoen
The convection now is weak mid level spin induced. It's not really helping the system get going. What happens is the piece that has the MLC separates from the wave axis and they compete for energy. It's not very align, though the predominant 700-850mb circulation is very near the area of highest vorticity along the poleward end of the wave axis.
Member Since: Oktober 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29934
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'd agree with you Gatorwx, except that he is somehow compelling, the sublimeness of his silliness is hard to cut off.


Like rubbernecking at a wreck. You want to stop looking but just can't
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Have a good sleep, 456.

K'man! Our eagle-eye swirl spotter! :) How's it going, friend? The golf game? Family?
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2143. Patrap
Thats because JFV is a Character that someone has been yanking ya'lls chain with.

Many knew that awhile back.
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127663
Bravo Gator!
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A meteorologist in the Tampa area station Baynews 9 has said for over 24 hours now that what ever this system becomes it will move though the Tampa area on Monday and Tuesday. He said alot of rain will occur and thats it's just a scientific term if it developes or not same weather is going to occur.
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Quoting Weather456:
Good night


see ya 456 have a good sleep.
Member Since: Juli 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5190
Quoting Drakoen:
I think the comments about JFV are funny, especially what happened yesterday lol. JFV won't make my ignore list if he keeps that up.


What did I miss?
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2134. Drakoen
That looks about right weathersp.
Member Since: Oktober 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29934
2132. Drakoen
I think the comments about JFV are funny, especially what happened yesterday lol. JFV won't make my ignore list if he keeps that up.
Member Since: Oktober 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29934
Good night
Member Since: Juli 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2130. Patrap
2128,,best Post-Of-Da-Day
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127663
2129. beell

Looks hostile for now.
RAMSDIS 16km IR/WV Loop
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2128. GatorWX
Why doesn't everyone just ignore him? He feeds off everyone's comments. It's quite obvious he wont make it through the season, but enough is enough. There's more blabor back and forth about him than necessary. I'd imagine 5-10% of these 2100 posts contains at least some illegitimate about him. I really don't think anyone cares what he has to say or your comments about him. WHO CARES??? Who the heck is JFV? Does it matter if it is him. Maybe it's stormtop. Who knows. It simply is irrelevant and pointless to the discussion the majority of us are here for. Quite frankly, it's just as annoying to hear everyone bickering about him, whether he's here or not, than it is with his own comments. If he tries to push your buttons, ignore him. You win! It's acknowledging him that he wants. Anyone with any real maturity will figure this out. It may be hard, but you just have to do it. I myself am getting really sick of all these comments. Thankyou
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Steering Layers
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Quoting Skyepony:
I don't see match to gas or RIP. The ULL is beginning to lift out NNW~ as I'd figured, once it pulled itself together. A wall has pushed south through FL that looks like should slow 93L's N movement atleast briefly.. better to give it distance from the ULL. If it pulls off a tight LLC, in the mean time, the mid level shear is pretty good in the gulf..
Hey Skye...did you see the launch tonight...pretty awesome (as always).
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2124. Patrap

Short Floater - JSL Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127663
Quoting Skyepony:
I don't see match to gas or RIP. The ULL is beginning to lift out NNW~ as I'd figured, once it pulled itself together. A wall has pushed south through FL that looks like should slow 93L's N movement atleast briefly.. better to give it distance from the ULL. If it pulls off a tight LLC, in the mean time, the mid level shear is pretty good in the gulf..


I agree. I think this system is getting smaller and stalling.
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93L looks very ragged now but there is a burst of convection starting offshore. That, plus a pocket of low shear that it sits in , may produce another convective blow up tonight.

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Where NHC defines the "center"...
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2119. scott39
ok the water in the gulf is hot enough to cook gumbo in and u could eat on the beach and not get sand blown in it. But when this wave gets in the gulf you would watch it die as you wait for one drop of water to fall out of the sky to wash down that gumbo. NO WATER NO STORM...
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2118. dis1322
hope this is just a rainmaker and hits texas we sure need iittttt
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The more I look at it the more I think the low is miss labeled. I really dont think they have it plotted correctly. I know it is tough to find because of the upper level flow but something tells me they have it too far north.
Member Since: Mai 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
2116. Skyepony (Mod)
I don't see match to gas or RIP. The ULL is beginning to lift out NNW~ as I'd figured, once it pulled itself together. A wall has pushed south through FL that looks like should slow 93L's N movement atleast briefly.. better to give it distance from the ULL. If it pulls off a tight LLC, in the mean time, the mid level shear is pretty good in the gulf..
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2114. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting moonlightcowboy:

Keep, it looks like that ull in the GOM is pulling away from 93L to the nWest, but also pulling some convective flow from the ITCZ. If it backs out of the way it could leave decent moisture content out there in front of 93L as it crosses the peninsula into the GOM. Also, there's a heavy upper level flow coming southwards over FL into the straits, Cuba. I think it'll move towards the area with the least resistance, right now I think that's behind the ull. Just some outloud thoughts, could be very wrong.
its a wait watch see mlc
Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
oh sorry lol
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.