Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Figured out what I was doing wrong.
West Cuba radar.

Quoting rainraingoaway:


Anybody?

Try the settings button at the top of the page.

Quoting rainraingoaway:


Anybody?

If I remembered how to do it myself... I would be happy to help. :)

Ya know...there is such a thing as Wunderground e-mail???

Drak what's your opinion on the upper pattern in the gulf? I'm leaning towards more poleward movement but the delicate pattern seems to favor a wide spread of possible tracks, all depending on the position of 93L and the depth of the east US trough.

Quoting louisianaboy444:
I want Opinions from Drak and Levi on this one....What would it take for this storm to come up to Louisiana and give me some much needed rain....and is that possible at this stage based on current observations and models?

That is possible but not probable. The flow around the trough is still favorable for a tropical storm to get eject eastward. If it remains weak in the GOM it will likely follow the BAMM guidance. Keep in mind the BAMM guidance is not very dynamic are are heavily based on current conditions. They may not be able to pick up on a longwave trough coming down from the north favoring a ridge that is closer.

Quoting PcolaDan:
Figured out what I was doing wrong.
West Cuba radar.

A link might be better for that one...they seem not to have the bandwidth for sharing the plot on the blog...sloooooooowww.

Regardless of how many questions he asks, he is human and has feelings.

Quoting hurricaneseason2006:

Umm...who cares???

Thanks Baja & Jeffs....."settings" is probably where its fixed but I cant find it or figure out how. Hmmpf.

Quoting Drakoen:


That is possible but not probable. The flow around the trough is still favorable for a tropical storm to get eject eastward. If it remains weak in the GOM it will likely follow the BAMM guidance. Keep in mind the BAMM guidance is not very dynamic are are heavily based on current conditions. They may not be able to pick up on a longwave trough coming down from the north favoring a ridge that is closer.

That basically answers my question lol. I agree a non-classified system may get pulled west, but poleward movement seems the most likely to me.

Quoting atmoaggie:


A link might be better for that one...they seem not to have the bandwidth for sharing the plot on the blog...sloooooooowww.

spoil sport :)

think you're right, faster on mine from cache i think
will del

LA boy, I have trouble with the mid-level steering putting this into Louisiana...just not likely.

Once this system picks a direction in the next day or so, it will be one way or the other. Down the middle doesn't really seem possible, but stay tuned, of course.

thanks guys and i'm sorry if i shorted anyone on the blog i know there is alot of smart people here i just respect their observations sorry if i offended anyone

Quoting atmoaggie:


You have to upload it again and check the primary portrait box at the bottom (if I remember correctly).

Ok. I will try that now. Thanks.

Quoting Levi32:
Drak what's your opinion on the upper pattern in the gulf? I'm leaning towards more poleward movement but the delicate pattern seems to favor a wide spread of possible tracks.

On Sunday the system will no doubt be moving in a more poleward fashion as the low level steering indicates by the dynamic computer forecast models. Steering will be weak as the system gets wedge between the ridge in the west and the trough in the east probably have a system moving anywhere from drifting to 10knots at maximum. The longwave flow cuts in very aggressively on Monday with the GFS and CMC being the strongest with the trough. If it becomes a large enough tropical storm on Monday it's heading eastward. If not it could head westward.

Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
I often wonder, Drak is not a met but he spends this much time devoted to it that it bears the question, what does he really do with his life. If he is a hobbyist, it is really consuming his entire life. You could imagine his productivity at work, he's friends, etc. Gosh. His posts are so detail that it indicates someone who sits by a computer 24/7 analysing every angle?

I think he and others can find a balance.

Quoting louisianaboy444:
thanks guys and i'm sorry if i shorted anyone on the blog i know there is alot of smart people here i just respect their observations sorry if i offended anyone

You provide some great insight much appreciated.

Quoting hurricane23:
18z view @ Statistical/Simple Models

18z view @ Dynamic Models

Assuming the center is that far west.

Quoting Drakoen:


On Sunday the system will no doubt be moving in a more poleward fashion as the low level steering indicates by the dynamic computer forecast models. Steering will be weak as the system gets wedge between the ridge in the west and the trough in the east probably have a system moving anywhere from drifting to 10knots at maximum. The longwave flow cuts in very aggressively on Monday with the GFS and CMC being the strongest with the trough. If it becomes a large enough tropical storm on Monday it's heading eastward. If not it could head westward.

I agree.

It is none of my business how people handle their personal life, there is no law or rule how long one can blog.

Quoting WeatherStudent:


is it a toss-up then, levi? at least for the present time being that is.

Pretty much still wait and see. Again the models don't do so well with ill-defined systems. What we really need is for this to get a closed circulation and declared a tropical depression so we can better gauge where it might go.

The two Clip models have it going into Louisiana but aren't those models based on climatology?

Hi everyone, it seems is getting some action in the African coast too.

2 PM Update

2009062718, , BEST, 0, 199N, 873W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ,

LOL. I don't sit at my computer all day. I leave my browser up on my computer and do other stuff when I need to and check back for updates. Also, it doesn't take me that long to look at things. Right now i'm doing some house cleaning lol!

No 2 p.m. Discussion.
By 8 maybe things will be more discernable.
If not, maybe 2 a.m. or then again 8 a.m. Sunday!
I would say there's a chance the center is shifting east.

Quoting louisianaboy444:
The two Clip models have it going into Louisiana but aren't those models based on climatology?

Yes they are. They shouldn't be counted as track guidance, just a reference. As atmo said a path up the middle is not very likely but it is still possible.

Quoting louisianaboy444:
The two Clip models have it going into Louisiana but aren't those models based on climatology?

exactly, and persistence, which is somewhat like including XTRP in an ensemble.

And based in the mid-level steering, and the current guessed location, I am heavily leaning towards a Northern Mexico path.

I do not think it will become a deep enough system to consider upper level steering until spending a while in the BOC.

Yes they are. As atmo said a path up the middle is not very likely but it is still possible.

Thanks guys, I'm going to school to be a Met but i'm only starting my 2nd year of college still have lots to learn apparently

Quoting louisianaboy444:
The two Clip models have it going into Louisiana but aren't those models based on climatology?

Correct based on past storms who were in the same area as the current system. Not to be ignored but since it is based on past systems it does not take into account present conditions.

Everything matters on how much of the trough digs down and retrogrades into the Deep South. If 93L makes it west of 90W.. it may meander long or even push WSW towards the BOC.. but the best odds are on it staying east of 88W and moving NE or even ENE.. questions will arise on is this a system or just a disturbance heading towards florida.

Also just to note... the models are having a hard time recognizing a center 48hrs-84hrs out cause the pressure in the northeastern GOM will be falling to around 1004-1008mb... so the global model will have to see 93L as a developed 1004mb or stronger system to really pronounce it on the map...also this will be probably a small compact system like charley..but not nowhere as strong if anything at all develops.
So anotherwords..this is most likely why the globals dont show alot...cause the presure in the NE GOM will be low also from the trough!

Quoting Acemmett90:
Sat Update
It has banding

No offense... but I don't see banding.

I have to give kudos to the amateur bloggers here (i.e. those who don't do this for a living) who still manage to follow the tropics with such diligence - and excellent accuracy. IMO we've some of the best of their ilk on this blog, and I'm hoping some of the younger ones among them are able to pursue meteorology as career. There's still so much to learn and understand about tropical cyclones; it's the passionate ones who can help us move to the next level.

I'm willing to put personalities aside in respect for that kind of interest in and devotion towards tropical weather observation and forecasting.

I think the NAVY center is just a guess. Its been going .7 N .7 W every 6 hours for about 18 hours now...which would probably be unlikely if we had an actual surface low. Link

Quoting WeatherStudent:


so it made official landfall already according to that image then, weather456?

The best track center appears to be along the coast. But it seems that track is being extrapolated.

Quoting scottsvb:
Everything matters on how much of the trough digs down and retrogrades into the Deep South. If 93L makes it west of 90W.. it may meander long or even push WSW towards the BOC.. but the best odds are on it staying east of 88W and moving NE or even ENE.. questions will arise on is this a system or just a disturbance heading towards florida.

Also just to note... the models are having a hard time recognizing a center 48hrs-84hrs out cause the pressure in the northeastern GOM will be falling to around 1004-1008mb... so the global model will have to see 93L as a developed 1004mb or stronger system to really pronounce it on the map...also this will be probably a small compact system like charley..but not nowhere as strong if anything at all develops.
So anotherwords..this is most likely why the globals dont show alot...cause the presure in the NE GOM will be low also from the trough!

Interesting info Scott thanks.

Quoting BahaHurican:
I have to give kudos to the amateur bloggers here (i.e. those who don't do this for a living) who still manage to follow the tropics with such diligence - and excellent accuracy. IMO we've some of the best of their ilk on this blog, and I'm hoping some of the younger ones among them are able to pursue meteorology as career. There's still so much to learn and understand about tropical cyclones; it's the passionate ones who can help us move to the next level.

I'm willing to put personalities aside in respect for that kind of interest in and devotion towards tropical weather observation and forecasting.

Well said Baha.

Quoting Weather456:
2 PM Update

2009062718, , BEST, 0, 199N, 873W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ,

Where did you get that picture?