Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A late look at Invest93L

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 06:52 AM GMT am 27. Juni 2009

Hi everybody, this is Rob Carver, R&D Scientist for Wunderground, filling in for Jeff Masters.

Summary of the situation

In the Tropical Weather Outlook NHC has tagged a tropical wave in the NW Caribbean Sea as Invest93L and believes that it has a 30-50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. As of now (11 PM PDT, June 26), the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this area on June 28. The track models have Invest93L moving through the Yucatan Straits into the Gulf of Mexico. After that, most of the models take the cyclone north and east making landfall along a wide swath of Florida's Gulf Coast on Wednesday of next week. The intensity models predict that at landfall, the system will be a weak Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm.

Figure 1. Plot of upper-level wind shear from CIMSS

Wind Shear Aloft

The wind shear patterns are favorable for intensification of Invest93L if it can make it through the Yucatan Straits. Figure 1 shows that currently, Invest93L is an unfavorable environment, with shear > 20 knots. However, north of the Yucatan Straits and SW of Florida, the shear drops to a favorable 5 knots. Both the GFS and NAM predict that that this shear pattern will be fairly constant over the next several days. Also, the water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are either normal or slightly above normal, so that will be favorable for storm development.

What happens next?
If Invest93L can survive long enough to get in the Gulf of Mexico, then I believe it can develop into TS Ana, the first named storm of the year. However, survival is not guaranteed, the convection around Invest93L is not that persistent. That said, people with interests along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on this storm this weekend and into the early part of the next week.

Rob Carver

Categories: Hurricane

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1551. Vortex1094 10:25 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy: Off-topic but for people living in Florida we have a launch here in a little over 20 minutes. Thanks

1555. CosmicEvents 10:27 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Quoting Tazmanian: dont you this love the bickering that gos on in here Admins If it happens while we have a TD or more then it's unacceptable. For now, on a Saturday night, while all we have is a blobo on the Yucatan, why not have a little levity. The calm before the storm, so to speak. Maybe tomorrow we'll have a storm(likely in my opinion as an untrained observer). Until then, no need for bickering but levity is healthy. Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5129

1556. cycloone 10:27 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy: Off-topic but for people living in Florida we have a launch here in a little over 20 minutes. cool, even though i don't live in florida i'll check it out thanks! Member Since: März 2, 2003 Posts: 65 Comments: 1009

1557. stormpetrol 10:28 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
I was wondering if anyone noticed that this system might be drifting more ENE/NE over the last few frames, I have the potential COC at 20N/86W, looks like it might me trying to consolidate abit more also. Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6491

1558. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:28 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
AOI/INV/93L MARK 20.3N/86.5W Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 146 Comments: 41277

1560. plywoodstatenative 10:28 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Countdown Hold at T-5 Minutes Sat, 27 Jun 2009 06:01:05 PM EDT At Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida, the countdown clock is holding at the T-5 minute mark. Although no technical issues are being reported, weather has gone "red" through the beginning of the launch window as reported by NASA's Weather Officer Joel Tumbiolo. The storms are skirting the southern-most portion of the 10-mile limit but are expected to clear out within the GOES-O launch window in time for liftoff. Launch time has been reset to 6:36 p.m. EDT to wait for the storm to move out of the area. Tonight's launch window extends to 7:14 p.m. Mission Overview GOES-O is the latest weather satellite developed by NASA to aid the nation's meteorologists and climate scientists. The acronym stands for Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. The spacecraft in the series provide the familiar weather pictures seen on United States television newscasts every day. The satellites are equipped with a formidable array of sensors and instruments. GOES provides nearly continuous imaging and sounding, which allows forecasters to better measure changes in atmospheric temperature and moisture distributions, hence increasing the accuracy of their forecasts. GOES environmental information is used for a host of applications, including weather monitoring and prediction models. Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

1561. plywoodstatenative 10:29 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
So is this satellite going to replace Quikscat or not? Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

1562. Seastep 10:29 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Quoting reedzone: At least someones with me on that! There probably won't be a code yellow until it gets in the GOM and nothing happens. That's exactly the kind of statement folks are taling about. Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3407

1563. canesrule1 10:30 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Quoting stormpetrol: I was wondering if anyone noticed that this system might be drifting more ENE/NE over the last few frames, I have the potential COC at 20N/86W, looks like it might me trying to consolidate abit more also. i agree i am seeing a turn towards the naples area in sw florida, imo.

1564. canesrule1 10:30 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
i think red at eight on the NHC page, imo.

1566. CycloneOz 10:30 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Here's a theoretical what-if: What if you lived west of Texas...and What if you liked to hunt hurricanes...and What if you had a feeling 93L would become a Cat 1 hurricane...and What if you had a weeks vacation...and What if you had friends in Pensacola & Tampa... Question... Would you leave right now or wait? Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3154

1567. TampaSpin 10:31 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
A surface LOw is very close and coming very soon looking at satellite.....TD1 by 11pm in my opinion! Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

1568. CybrTeddy 10:31 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Launch now 6:51 PM EDT! Weather is expected to be GREEN during that time. Member Since: Juli 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20629

1569. wunderkidcayman 10:31 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Quoting stormpetrol: I was wondering if anyone noticed that this system might be drifting more ENE/NE over the last few frames, I have the potential COC at 20N/86W, looks like it might me trying to consolidate abit more also. THANK YOU SOMEONE KNOWS WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT THANK YOU STORMPETROL!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Member Since: Juni 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5997

1570. muddertracker 10:31 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
All the pretty colors are back on the blog..Patrap where's the funktop, baby? Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2167

1571. stormpetrol 10:31 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
1558. KEEPEROFTHEGATE Notice your coordinates are pretty close to mine, a difference of 18 miles to the N and 30 miles to the W, well within the margin of error for either of us. Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6491

1573. CybrTeddy 10:32 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
TD2 you mean Tampa right? Don't forget lonley ole TD1 back in May. Member Since: Juli 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20629

1574. TampaSpin 10:32 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Quoting CycloneOz: Here's a theoretical what-if: What if you lived west of Texas...and What if you liked to hunt hurricanes...and What if you had a feeling 93L would become a Cat 1 hurricane...and What if you had a weeks vacation...and What if you had friends in Pensacola... Question... Would you leave right now or wait? Oz i'm not sure which way you should go left, right or stay put.......LMAO Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

1575. WPBHurricane05 10:32 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: A surface LOw is very close and coming very soon looking at satellite.....TD1 by 11pm in my opinion! ????????? Member Since: Juli 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8004

1576. StormFreakyisher 10:33 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Quoting hurricane2009: It is holding its own, THATS IT!!! This isnt a damn contest Okay you dont have to say it with explanation marks!!! Member Since: Mai 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684

1578. canesrule1 10:34 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
i know this is old, but check out how the pressure is dipping Invest 93L Last advisory update: 2:00 PM EDT, Sat Jun 27 2009 Lat: 19.9 N Long: 87.3 W Winds: 29 mph (25 knots) Pressure: 29.77 inches (1008 mb) if you want to check more about invest 93L, check out this website:Link

1580. TampaSpin 10:34 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Quoting hurricane2009: Based on what?? Based on ignor you......WOW! Sorry i forgot about the TD1 ! TD 2 at 11pm Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

1582. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:35 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Quoting stormpetrol: 1558. KEEPEROFTHEGATE Notice your coordinates are pretty close to mine, a difference of 18 miles to the N and 30 miles to the W, well within the margin of error for either of us. i did'nt catch that but really wow a general concenus Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 146 Comments: 41277

1583. plywoodstatenative 10:35 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
What maps? Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

1584. StormJunkie 10:35 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
over the last few frames, First off, a few frames is not enough to discern movement. Especially if you have frames that are updating every 10 - 15 min. It is really tough to determine movement when there is no low level center. Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15240

1587. canesrule1 10:36 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Quoting btwntx08: if it becomes a td it will be td 2 if it does i think td at 8, imo because there is surface circulation from what i see on visible satellite imagery, i agree with Tampaspin 110%.

1588. CycloneOz 10:37 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: Oz i'm not sure which way you should go left, right or stay put.......LMAO Left or right? :) I was hoping for a "now or wait!" :) I guess "stay put" gave me the answer. :) Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3154

1589. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:37 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Quoting btwntx08: if it becomes a td it will be td 2 if it does yes it will be 02L/TD/A Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 146 Comments: 41277

1590. WPBHurricane05 10:38 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Would be nice to see Levi, 456, StormW, Drak, and a few others soon.... Member Since: Juli 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8004

1594. WPBHurricane05 10:40 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
No west winds yet but I imagine its close... Member Since: Juli 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8004

1595. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:40 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
wait oz there will be at least a 36 hr window to decide which way to go if you want Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 146 Comments: 41277

1597. plywoodstatenative 10:40 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Someone pull up the track from Hurricane Abby, is the conditions present now for that track? Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

1598. TampaSpin 10:40 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
Quoting hurricane2009: LOL nice way to respond, you said TD2 by 11pm, I would say most would say that is a bit aggressive, I am asking what you base it on and then you react to me like that? LOL So tell me why you think TD2 by 11pm Based upon satellite. Very strong Convection and a Surface Low that will be in place by 11pm in my opinion. Its just above the surface now....look at the 850mb vorticity and divergence returns. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

1600. stormpetrol 10:41 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009
First off, a few frames is not enough to discern movement speaking of a about 3 hour loop if you look at the time under the "frames", surprising the difference a slight wobble can make in track to those to who might be in the path, that said, agreed it really does not have a "defined" center to really make any definitive observation. Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6491

1601. canesrule1 10:41 PM GMT am 27. Juni 2009

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