Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

plywood---

its the MLC

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
AOI/INV/93L
MARK
19.8N/84.7W

Looks like its on life support.

What time does recon update schedule? 10:30 CDST?

Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Looks like its on life support.

I said that earlier. Looks better now.

if that mess passes over the part of cuba without mountains and hits the gulfstream waters.....

Nice new model/Satellite image site I just found. It is filled with data.

I recommend that you guys bookmark it.

Quoting Weather456:
The next round of convective burst maybe is what will take the feature off.

convective burst should commence around 2 pm right after NHC update and the start of the daytime heat maximum from 2 till 4

Is that some banding taking place over Cuba?

Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Looks like its on life support.

not even close, there is nothing hindering it from developing, shear is low, temps are high, TCHP is good, maybe some land interaction but other then that, once it gets a closed low, it will most likely take off with the favorable conditions it is in.

Tampa, whats your base on track of both sets?

Quoting atmoaggie:


Could that steep, and temporary, drop in pressure just have been a result of a good, hard, cold rain cooling the air?

Yes, because it dropped the three millibars in an hour's time and then rebounded up two millibars in just another hour. And if it was something like a low pressure center passing over it, I think you would expect a bigger shift in wind direction, which didn't really happen.

Quoting atmoaggie:



G'Morning. BTW, I work in Bldg. 1103 at SSC. You guys get a new hire for Steve Collins position yet? I used to have that dude on speed dial. Good guy.

Haha well I'm actually the wrong guy to ask. I'm just a student-intern at the time. This is my second stint as an intern at the NDBC and I can't say I remember him from my previous time. I'm a student at LSU also. I could ask around though on Monday!

Link


The mid level center has finally organized itself enough I can make it out around 20.2n 83.9w moving nnw.

Also on the loop is a weird I'd guess land breeze induced surface swirl around 17n 88w. It's slowly drifting east.

futuremet, do me one favor. Next time you tell us to bookmark something. Have a look at the last time it was updated.

The feature near cuba is the MLC which is soaking up a lot of the energy... its not a surface low...

Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
The feature near cuba is the MLC which is soaking up a lot of the energy... its not a surface low...

Yeah I see it moving on.

That site that Futuremet gave is updated lol.

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
futuremet, do me one favor. Next time you tell us to bookmark something. Have a look at the last time it was updated.

Some are old and some are new. You should be able to differentiate. This is not only for tropical weather, but all types: severe, winter, tropical, etc.

high burst of convection off the coast of the Yucatan, my issue is that everyone is watching what is left of the system south of Cuba. While the rest of it is getting nicely set up, this could be a "sleeper storm"

prolly wont amount to a strong hurricane squalls and gusty winds. us here in louisiana could use the rain anyways;but never the less it reminds us who live along the gulf of mexico like i do to be alert and keep an eye out if sumtin gets in gulf huh?

Quoting WeatherStudent:
I'm telling y'all, look east, that's the place to look at. Clearly 93L is beyond RIP already.

only thing beyond is you beyond help

Cozumel pressure went from 29.90 to 29.93.....it was at 29.86 earlier.

Cozumel, MX (Airport)
Updated: 29 min 12 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
75 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 5 mph from the ESE
Pressure: 29.93 in (Rising)
Visibility: 7.0 miles
UV: 5 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 1500 ft
Mostly Cloudy 8000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 20000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 ft

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
only thing beyond is you beyond help

LMAO!

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
futuremet, do me one favor. Next time you tell us to bookmark something. Have a look at the last time it was updated.

The site is current, I just checked some the links on it.

It is banding. Quote -- from this earlier discussion.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with this disturbance have decreased somewhat over the past few hours, however, satellite imagery does show a feeder band with a curved appearance on the east side of the tropical wave axis. Curved bands like what we are seeing is a sign of organization because that means we are experiencing some low to mid level turning in the atmosphere which would force the convection to arc this way. So, even though convection has waned some overnight, this disturbance is organized and I suspect we will see another blowup of thunderstorm activity as the morning progresses.

Drak, have a look at the base of the page. Says last updated in dec. 08

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Drak, have a look at the base of the page. Says last updated in dec. 08

These are the parameters and the composition of the site, not the models. However, it seems they are only updated at 00z and the 12z. There are also some archives there. This is nonetheless a great site for forecasting.

I think this is 00z GFS

If we could get rid of the MLC thats taking energy away from the area off of Cozumel we could see the area really blow up.... imo.

Headed toward 5 knots of shear....

oh yeah, 93L is going to fizzle out just as it reaches lower shear and warm gulf waters...not to mention the gulf eddy. Where's Levi?

^ Anyone know if this is a current model run.

Quoting IKE:
What time does recon update schedule? 10:30 CDST?

Normal Operations

5.5.1. DOC Requests for Aircraft Reconnaissance Data.

5.5.1.1. Coordination. The Tropical Prediction/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) will coordinate with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) to determine a list of the total DOC requirements for data on tropical and subtropical cyclones or disturbances for the next 24-hour period (1100 to 1100 UTC) and an outlook for the succeeding 24-hour period. This coordinated request will be provided to CARCAH as soon as possible, but not later than 1630 UTC each day in the format of Figure 5-6. Amendments will be provided as required.

Quoting Chicklit:
Where's Levi?

He probably just woke up. It is early in Alaska.

Probably won't see significant development until it goes through the Yucatan channel.

Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
If we could get rid of the MLC thats taking energy away from the area off of Cozumel we could see the area really blow up.... imo.

You do know that sometimes the mlc's win out and develop their own surface centers. I think that's actually porbably what will happen as the tropical wave moves into central America leaving the mlc to move into the gulf and develop.

Quoting IKE:
KMAN I'm still watching that area.

Looks like you were right again.

I'm still ready to visit that paradise island!

Let me know when you're coming, I'll show you around.

All the discussion about where the " center " is reminded me of the 5 friends who went to Rome to see a famous cathedral.

As they stood in the middle of the big square, the first pointed to the East and said " well, there it is ". The second pointed to the South and said " no, it's over there ". The third friend pointed West and said " I am certain that is it over there " and the fourth pointed to the North and said " the three of you are wrong, I see it clearly there ".

At this point the four of them turned to the fifth and said " well, it's up to you now " to which he replied " I have no idea where it is but at least we have seen it ! ".

Time to run errands now. Have a great day all.
Back later.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Normal Operations

5.5.1. DOC Requests for Aircraft Reconnaissance Data.

5.5.1.1. Coordination. The Tropical Prediction/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) will coordinate with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) to determine a list of the total DOC requirements for data on tropical and subtropical cyclones or disturbances for the next 24-hour period (1100 to 1100 UTC) and an outlook for the succeeding 24-hour period. This coordinated request will be provided to CARCAH as soon as possible, but not later than 1630 UTC each day in the format of Figure 5-6. Amendments will be provided as required.

Thanks.....

Quoting MrstormX:


^ Anyone know if this is a current model run.

No, it's in the future.

Quoting kmanislander:


Let me know when you're coming, I'll show you around.

All the discussion about where the " center " is reminded me of the 5 friends who went to Rome to see a famous cathedral.

As they stood in the middle of the big square, the first pointed to the East and said " well, there it is ". The second pointed to the South and said " no, it's over there ". The third friend pointed West and said " I am certain that is it over there " and the fourth pointed to the North and said " the three of you are wrong, I see it clearly there ".

At this point the four of them turned to the fifth and said " well, it's up to you now " to which he replied " I have no idea where it is but at least we have seen it ! ".

Time to run errands now. Have a great day all.
Back later.

I'd love to see that place.

Quoting Drakoen:
Probably won't see significant development until it goes through the Yucatan channel.

Hey Drak,

I concur with your statements there on this disturbance, development (if any) will take place in the GOM.One thing look pretty certain florida looks rather wet next.

Still looks rather disorganized.

Quoting Drakoen:
Probably won't see significant development until it goes through the Yucatan channel.

I agree Drakoen. It's kind of up against two land masses but they are small enough and there's enough water in between for the Invest to make it to the Gulf where it will strengthen. Back to furniture refinishing!
TTFN.

Quoting HurricaneKing:


You do know that sometimes the mlc's win out and develop their own surface centers. I think that's actually porbably what will happen as the tropical wave moves into central America leaving the mlc to move into the gulf and develop.

that is true, we have seen that happen, and i am not saying that it won't happen this time. Im just pointing out what is the closest thing to the surface low.

Morning Adrian,

Yes things are going to get soggy with the frontal boundary and low pressure system approaching. Trough should be able to pull up all that moisture.

1,000mph winds JFV. Better shutter up now and move to Canada.

Quoting Drakoen:
1,000mph winds JFV. Better shutter up now and move to Canada.

LMAO