97L growing more organized, will bring heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles
The tropical wave near 12N 52W, about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (97 L), has grown more organized this morning as it tracks west at about 20 mph. This wave is surrounded by an area of very dry air from the Sahara Desert, but 97L has been able to steadily moisten a large region of the atmosphere over the past day, insulating itself from the dry air. This moistening process has been aided by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have steadily increased from 26.5°C to 27.5°C, plus the presence of only 10 knots of wind shear. The system now has a small area of intense thunderstorms near its center, with some rotation of the cloud pattern evident at mid-levels of the atmosphere. An upper-level outflow channel has opened to the north, and there is evidence that surface spiral bands are beginning to form. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 97L, so we don't know what is happening at the surface.
Wind shear is a modest 10 knots over the disturbance, and is forecast to remain in the moderate 10 - 15 knot range through Monday morning. This should allow further development to occur today, and 97L could be approaching tropical depression strength on Monday as it moves through the central Lesser Antilles Islands. Monday night, shear is expected to rise to 20 - 30 knots, thanks to the presence of a trough of low pressure at upper levels of the atmosphere over the eastern Caribbean. Since 97L is a relatively small system, it is very vulnerable to wind shear. This shear may be able to drive some of the dry air west of 97L deep into its interior, significantly disrupting the disturbance. Shear will remain high along 97L's path through Thursday, when the storm should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba. If there is anything left of 97L by then, some development is possible. The National Hurricane Center gave 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours in their 8am Tropical Weather Outlook. However, I'd say the odds are now in the medium range (30 - 50%).
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Monday morning. As 97L approaches the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for 97L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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And, I am less concerned with what shear will look like in the nCaribbean 4 to 5 days out - too far out to determine what that will look like at that this imo; but, I still suspect it will be more conduscive at that time as well.
RIP 97L because scott thinks so obviously
So you wouldn't give it the famous yellow circle?
Yes convection over the approximate center, but in the mean time a rather strong band is developing on the NE side.
Then again its the NOGAPS.
Do not pay attention to them! Do you have an opinion on what this storm will do? You are on my favorite bloggers here and I want your opinion.
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PLEASE LET ME KNOW IF WHERE THE LINK IS THE THIS WEBSITE GETS THE FORECAST MODELS FROM
THANK YOU
It isnt gaining latitude at all, moving just south of due west right now
Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)
Whoa..I think my ears are bleeding.
Looking at the sats this morning before I went to work (4:50am) gave me a little smile. My money's on the shear *shrugs*
(((( All y'all ...good to see ya's)))
OK I SOUNDED LIKE A RETARD IN THAT LAST POST. I JUST WANTED TO KNOW WHERE WEATHER UNDERGROUND GETS THE INFO FOR THE FORECAST MODELS.
THANKS GUYS!
Poof.
97L looks like a mid level circulation to me.
Tropical Cyclone Model Guidance
Hahaha! Bubbles!!
LOL, why don't you actually "contribute" something to the discussion and give reasons for your statements? Try that or just shut up.
...another one finds the ignore button. One yesterday, now one, today too. It's much easier reading cognizant, conscientious posts without the loose-lathered lips. ;)
97L Floater 1 Imagery
Enhancement Descriptions:
Abbreviation Full Name Description
AVN
Aviation color enhancement
BD
Dvorak Dvorak enhancement - used for Tropical Classifications with the Dvorak Technique
FT
Funktop Funktop enhancement - developed by Ted Funk for assistance with Precipitation analysis
IR2
Shortwave Channel 2 Infrared imagery - Shortwave, sometimes considered "night visible"
IR4
Unenhanced Channel 4 Infrared Imagery
JSL
JSL2 enhancement - developed by Jim Lynch for use with tropical classifications
RB
Rainbow Rainbow enhancement curve - pretty color enhancement
RGB
Combination of Visible and IR using a three channel technique to make features stand out
VIS
Visible Unenhanced Visible imagery that transitions to IR2 overnight.
WV
Water Vapor Infrared Channel 3 with color enhancement
45
YOU KNOW I STAYED UP HALF THE NIGHT WITH A CHILD WHO WAS UPSET, I'M A LITTLE TIRED!
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