African wave 99L may develop; Felicia threatens Hawaii; record rains from Morakot
A strong tropical wave with a high amount of spin moved off the coast of Africa yesterday, and has a good chance of becoming the first named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. The wave was designated 99L by NHC Sunday morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north, but this is not currently interfering with the storm's organization. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along two axes. The storm can now be classified as tropical depression using the satellite-based Dvorak classification technique, but the surface circulation will have to show better definition before 99L can be classified as a tropical depression. Top winds were in the 20 - 30 mph range, as estimated by QuikSCAT and the Dvorak satellite estimates.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, tonight through Tuesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, so conditions favor development. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS models all develop 99L into a tropical depression 1 - 4 days from now. The dry air of the Saharan Air Layer may become a problem for 99L 2 -4 days from now, as the storm moves slightly north of due west. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 6 days before the storm makes it that far.
The GFS model predicts development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa about 6 - 7 days from now.
Felicia weakens to a tropical storm, still a threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite imagery shows that wind shear is beginning to affect the storm, with strong upper-level winds from the west pushing the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity all to the east side of the center.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, though. Wind shear has increased to a moderate to high 20 knots, and is expected to increase further to 30 knots by Monday morning. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should reduce Felicia to tropical depression strength by the time the center reaches the Hawaiian Islands Monday night. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 40% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm when it moves through the islands Monday night, and 40% chance it will be a tropical depression. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 1). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for the Big Island. Felicia or its remnants should bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning Monday morning, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Typhoon Morakot hits China
Typhoon Morakot hit China this morning as a tropical storm, lashing the mainland with very heavy rain. Yesterday, Morakot hit Taiwan, dumping up to 80 inches of rain on the island over a 2-day period, according to news reports. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952, so the Typhoon Morakot 2-day totals are some of the highest ever measured in the world. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau. Three are dead and 31 people missing on the island, and Morakot also killed 23 people in the Philippines.
I'll have an update on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Ike you are too easily swayed. lol
I guess thats a good thing.
Never have a set opinion and you wont get upset when things dont turn out the way you saw it.
I'm 98% sure it'll be TD2 and 92% sure it will been TS Ana and 70% Hurricane Ana.
It looks less impressive becuase the satellite was broken for 12 hours.
Sorry but no.
be afraid...be very afraid...
Wait weren't you just laughing at me for posting the GFS?
Hour and a half old.
I agree, to be Ana 2 or 3 days.
reaches for-
every bottle's empty!!! AAAUURGH!!
WHXX04 KWBC 091721
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 13.4 20.7 280./13.0
6 13.9 21.6 301./10.5
12 14.4 23.0 290./14.1
18 14.8 24.4 285./13.9
24 15.1 25.9 281./14.8
30 15.3 27.5 277./15.9
36 15.4 28.6 275./10.2
42 15.7 29.7 286./11.8
48 15.9 31.1 278./13.0
54 16.0 32.4 274./12.4
60 16.1 33.4 278./ 9.6
66 16.5 34.4 292./10.4
72 16.7 35.7 277./12.4
78 16.9 37.1 277./13.9
84 17.1 38.4 279./12.4
90 17.5 39.7 288./13.3
96 17.6 41.1 276./13.8
102 17.9 42.4 282./12.5
108 18.3 43.5 289./10.7
114 18.9 44.3 306./ 9.5
120 19.4 44.9 309./ 8.0
126 20.0 45.9 301./10.7
Yo-yo
A. Yellow
B. Orange
C. Red
D. No Color
E. Straight to TD status
Polls cose in 10 minutes.
Somewhat buying into it...yes.
Haha WSVN would take the first opportunity to have a "tracking the tropics" segment.
Thats the funny thing.
I never said I did.
B
obviously you don't lurk as much as I do
* *
--Next WAVE may exit Africa tomorrow. GFS develops this into a significant Tropical LO as it drifts slowly W to 13N/30W Sat15 / crossing 60W near 19N Thu20 / raking much of the Bahamas as a Hurricane Sat22 / reinforcing HI over NE US Mon24 prevents Hurricane from turning N, causing it to plow into S Florida. It's WAY too early to be concerned about this feature...but it hints the coming increase in activity may create more-than-one Tropical LO.
Hurricane Andrew Part 2 :(?
Oh great.
Finally someone who understands that models are only a tool and the current errors in modeling overall suggest that they are only accurate to only 3 days.. Except for special occasions where their only task is medium range like the EMCWF.
Please show me any normal dictionary, anywhere that has gecko meaning anything but a small sub-tropical animal (or insurance salesmen.)
Although the Urban Dictionary has a definition that fit... Which is:
The state of being entirely f(*&^ up from the "get go".
S&^%, this project is all gecko.
I redacted the "bad" words.. WS sometimes shows his "Urban Youth" side and we will have to excuse him.
I feel your pain...
GFS made 'Bill' the exact Path of Ivan lol.
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