Bill brushes Massachusetts; Nova Scotia gets pounded

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:05 PM GMT am 23. August 2009

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The winds and waves are dying down in coastal Massachusetts, which took a glancing blow from Hurricane Bill last night and this morning. Bill's center passed about 200 miles southeast of Massachusetts' Nantucket Island, bringing top sustained winds of 24 mph, gusting to 31 mph, at the airport. A storm surge of 1 foot was observed on Cape Cod and Nantucket at high tide. A storm surge of 0.5 feet was reported at Newport, RI, and Boston, MA. President Obama arrives in neighboring Martha's Vineyard today for vacation, and will not want to go swimming--seas of up to 15 feet will continue to batter the shores of southeast Massachusetts. Significant wave heights at Buoy 44008, about 60 miles southeast of Nantucket Island reached 27 feet early this morning. A rainband from Bill set up over Massachusetts, from Boston southwestward, and several reports of 3 - 4 inches of rain came from stations in the rain band (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Radar estimated precipitation from Hurricane Bill. Kingston, MA, received 3.74 inches of rain from Bill. Western Massachusetts got even heavier rain from an approaching cold front.

Bill's impact on Canada
The Canadian Hurricane Center is predicting that Bill will generate a storm surge of 0.5 - 1.0 meters (1.5 - 3 feet) along the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland today, as the storm races northeast at 30 mph. The surge, when combined with the 5 - 10 meter (16 - 33 foot) waves expected to pound the coast, will cause considerable coastal damage. This is the main threat of Bill to Canada. Bill's highest hurricane-force winds should stay offshore this afternoon as the hurricane passes the heavily populated capital, Halifax. However, winds of 60 - 70 mph will likely impact eastern Nova Scotia, where Bill is expected to make landfall later today, causing considerable tree damage and power outages. Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches will also cause localized flooding problems. Radar out of Halifax, Nova Scotia shows heavy rain from Bill impacting most of the province, but Bill's center is located well offshore. Buoy 44150 was in the east eyewall of Bill at 9:30 am EDT, and reported sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 85 mph, with waves of 40 feet. Bill is expected to make landfall over Newfoundland near midnight tonight, but will have likely weakened to a tropical storm by then.

Links to follow:
wundermap for Nova Scotia
Halifax radar
Canadian Hurricane Center advisories

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. Most of the models are calling for the possible development of a tropical cyclone in the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina on Wednesday or Thursday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation--the remains of the cold front that pushed off the U.S. East Coast this morning, plus a tropical wave that is currently approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. We will also need to watch the region off the coast of Africa this week.

I'll have an update Monday, when I'll show a remarkable photo taken in the eye of Hurricane Bill by the Hurricane Hunters.

Jeff Masters

After Bill (denmar)
Looking south easterly off St. David's, Bermuda
After Bill
Waves courtesy of Hurricane Bill (bugbug)
East Coast surfers trying their hand at "big" surf.
Waves courtesy of Hurricane Bill

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HPC has changed their graphical depiction of the area east of the Bahamas from a tropical wave/trough to a low.

Loop of sea-level pressures and fronts through day 7
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Ike, yep smart thing is to stay out of the water.

I'm very jealous you have such cool temps - in the 90's during day, 80's at night.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
Quoting presslord:



so...you're saying...they're gonna both be Cat 5's...and cause carnage all across SEFLA...Right?


Excellent...


Member Since: Juli 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
401. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
206 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009


.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 24 NORTH...57 WEST AND
ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGHFINESS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT THIS
TIME. ALSO...MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOVING WEST NORTHWEST...IS GENERATING
A SECOND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT OF
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO CLOUD DECKS...HAZY SKIES ARE
NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
PRODUCING A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH...THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
WITHIN THE 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A BIT AND A TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A
LOCALIZED MODERATE SHOWER OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. THEN...ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FIRST BAND OF MOISTURE JUST AHEAD
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE ARRIVES TO THE LOCAL AREA.

AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS AS WELL
AS SMALL RIVER STREAMS. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS AS
TIME PROGRESSES.
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Quoting futuremet:


I guess there is no such thing as a "Fish" storm, because they don't even have to effect land to cause damage.
Sometimes I think maybe fish have better sense than people. Never underestimate the waves from a hurricane. Lat year when Gustav was nearing Cayman one girl almost drowned while trying to surf.
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399. IKE
Quoting presslord:



so...you're saying...they're gonna both be Cat 5's...and cause carnage all across SEFLA...Right?


Shutters up!
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Quoting Drakoen:
NOGAPS 18z has two cyclones forming.



so...you're saying...they're gonna both be Cat 5's...and cause carnage all across SEFLA...Right?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He already did on post 384


Thanks
Member Since: Juli 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting Weather456:
It's sad but expected that rip currents took a life, but surprise it was in Florida. Basically that's the biggest threat of recurving TCs. Doesnt have to make landfall.

Meanwhile, Bill made its first landfall on Nova Scotia this afternoon. No fish.


I guess there is no such thing as a "Fish" storm, because they don't even have to effect land to cause damage.
Member Since: Juli 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting futuremet:


Sir 456, can post link to that image?
He already did on post 384
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393. IKE
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Quoting Weather456:
Sable Island took a direct hit from B12 winds



Sir 456, can you post link to that image?
Member Since: Juli 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Re. 384. Thanks again. Wonder which Fcast model they're using to base their 7-day forecast on... whichever one it is is suggesting some stronger winds off to the east of the Bahamas on Thursday..
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
390. Relix
I've said this like 20 times in the span of two weeks... but...

55W could pull a Jeanne on PR. I remember exactly this happened then =P
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389. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES WEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Quoting 21N71W:
Evening All,
Now about that blob nearing 55W...
Yellow circle again.
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387. IKE
CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR MONDAY AUGUST 24.

BIRMINGHAM 57
ANNISTON 54
TUSCALOOSA 58
MONTGOMERY 60

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Try these.

THE WEATHER PREDICITION

JETSTREAM
Yeah, that's the one, TYVM.....

Anybody who wants a good basic intro to weather in general and Tropical weather in particular should use this website. It's got an excellent step-by-step approach to explaining how things work. Plus there are fun little "quizzes"..... lol

Thanks again, Storm.
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting Vortex95:


I was in a rip current once. A lighter one but still could still kill you if you paniced. I first tried swimming back to shore, likely a fight or flight responce, and then swam about 300 parralell to the sea. I was a little tired but at least i enjoyed the rest of the day basking in the sun safely away from the ocean.

BTW the lifeguard in my area told me that info.
Quoting PennGator:

I just came back from surfing in Bethune Beach (New Smyrna)@ Grouper Ave. Apparently a bodysurfer drowned yesterday in the same location...It's unfortunate how people underestimate the power of the 6 to 10 ft waves and get themselves "washed out"...


Sorry to hear about those who were injured or worse. I can understand the attraction. I got out there a couple of times this weekend, body surfed for hours, but I couldn't recommend it unless you know these waters. The curl of these waves coming perpendicular to the shore would pick you up 12' & launch you. If you didn't reenter at a shallow enough angle, you pile drove into the bottom, then got rolled. The undercurrent did make it easy to get back out if you could hold your breath & swim on the bottom for long enough. Great fun, but nothing like Floyd or David. The big jellyfish that it brought in don't even bother me anymore.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
456, u got a link on this? TIA


LINK
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Quoting P451:


can I have a link to the web page of that radar loop
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382. IKE
Quoting zoomiami:
The number of people who drown off the beaches in Florida is amazing. There was a one week period last year where 12 died. Don't you think that would make people stay out of the water?


Terrible that people die, but to risk going in water with riptides is just stupid.

Go to a swimming pool. Stay out of the ocean when riptides are present.
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Quoting Weather456:
Sable Island took a direct hit from B12 winds

456, u got a link on this? TIA
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
I read some earlier comments on the CMC, and to me it has seemed to be performing better this year, not generating as many cyclones as before. It seems that recent upgrades may have improved it's cyclogenesis skills. I guess time will tell. From the NHC technical summary of models:


In June 2009, the CMC GEM converted to a hybrid vertical coordinate system that is terrain-following in the boundary layer (sigma) and becomes purely isobaric (pressure) near the tropopause, a structure similar to that used by the other global models noted in Table 2. Also in June 2009, the upper boundary of the model was raised from 10 mb (32 km) to 0.1 mb (64 km). This change permits the incorporation of more satellite observations into the initial model analysis. This latest incarnation of the GEM is referred to as the GEM .Meso-Strato. version or simply .GEM-Strato

Technical Summary of the National Hurricane Center Track and Intensity Models
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The number of people who drown off the beaches in Florida is amazing. There was a one week period last year where 12 died. Don't you think that would make people stay out of the water?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
Evening All,
Now about that blob nearing 55W...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon/evening all. It's sad to read about the injuries and deaths from Bill. Once again showing how our world rarely comes away unscathed after dealing with these powerful systems. :(

I'm grateful for the slow season in my neck of the woods thus far. But I would feel a lot better if it was December. As someone mentioned September 13th the one year anniversery of Ike. And the 2 year anniversery of Humberto. September and particularly September 13th does not like the the TX/LA border region. And we get a lot of them at night. I know that after October my area doesn't get that many storms because they are generally moving NE in the gulf and there's not that much room to hit us. Other than that though I wonder if there is another reason for when storms hit certain areas? Hmmm? Sounds like I've got some more Googling to do. :)
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NOGAPS 18z has two cyclones forming.
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It's sad but expected that rip currents took a life, but surprise it was in Florida. Basically that's the biggest threat of recurving TCs. Doesnt have to make landfall.

Meanwhile, Bill made its first landfall on Nova Scotia this afternoon. No fish.
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366. IKE
Crestview, Sikes Airport
Lat: 30.79 Lon: -86.52 Elev: 190
Last Update on Aug 23, 5:53 pm CDT

Partly Cloudy

79 °F
(26 °C)
Humidity: 50 %
Wind Speed: NW 8 MPH
Barometer: 29.97" (1014.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 59 °F (15 °C)
Heat Index: 80 °F (27 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.



Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
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Link

Pretty consistent. I actually checked these models numerous times with Bill, and they did a pretty good job with him.
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Quoting yonzabam:


They move faster as they travel north and the more north they travel, the faster they get, usually.

They also move a lot faster when they recurve east across the Atlantic than when they travelled west before recurving. Bill is expected to take 3 days to get to Britain, which is very quick.

No idea why, though.


Also, about half of the apparent velocity increase is an illusion. Mercator map projections, like hurricanes are typically plotted on, make things get stretched more the further they are from the equator. Newfoundland to Ireland is under 1900 miles. Puerto Rico to the Cape Verdes looks like the same distance on a map, but is really about 2800 miles.

They do actually speed up also, though.
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Sable Island took a direct hit from B12 winds

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(sighs)

stormno is the real stormtop. There's another blogger on here with the name StormT0p, but uses a zero instead of an O for the T0p part.

StormTop was StormKat last year; this year he's stormno.

I know him, ok? he's doesn't have any other handles, he can't imitate other people, he is what he is, plain and simple.

Ya'll seem so interested in him. Any other questions?
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.
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360. IKE
18Z GFS......doesn't show much....
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Quoting StormW:


Ventilation
Storm, that website with the different "lessons" about different aspects of weather and the atmosphere, was that the Jetstream thing?

Trying to find it in my links....
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting violetprofusion:
Can someone answer a really basic question?

Bill is going so fast - it seems that he's just flying north. Do tropical systems usually move fast when they go further north? Does it have something to do with the colder SSTs, which makes them weaker and smaller?

Any answers are much appreciated. I'm so sorry if this is a silly question. I'm still learning. Thank you!


They move faster as they travel north and the more north they travel, the faster they get, usually.

They also move a lot faster when they recurve east across the Atlantic than when they travelled west before recurving. Bill is expected to take 3 days to get to Britain, which is very quick.

No idea why, though.
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Gustav made his appearance as a depression one year ago Tuesday.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
Quoting Yalahaman:
No I'm not Stormtrop ! Just a long time reader and follower of wundergruond . I did not mean to sound like a brown noser or but kisser.Just a supporter.Guess Iwent a little overboard! My sincerest apologies Mr. Gator!
They were prolly talking abt that LovesDanger character. I'm not convinced yet, myself. After all, LovesDanger has dear loved ones in Bermuda, and was wishcasting Bill towards NYC so that it wouldn't damage LovesDangers' dear ones.

Unless that was all a lie....

Nah, StormTop wouldn't lie to me like that....
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
And what were we following one year ago today..

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/7. RAIN
BANDS HAVE BECOME RELATIVELY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER WATER...AND
ALL AVAILABLE DATA SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING. FAY IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...ALTHOUGH RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS
PERSIST EVEN OVER LAND AREAS. SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FAY COULD REMAIN A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.



Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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