Hurricane warnings for Baja; 94L forming spiral bands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 03:36 PM GMT am 31. August 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, where powerful Hurricane Jimena is expected to make landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The hurricane is in an environment with low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), 30°C. Shear is expected to remain low, and SSTs will decline to 28°C with a corresponding decrease in total oceanic heat content between now and landfall, and these conditions should mean that Jimena will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall. Outer rain-bands of the hurricane will be appearing on Los Cabos radar soon, though the Mexican Weather Service web site has been hard to reach today. The computer models are split, with one camp calling for a landfall in southern Baja, and the other camp calling for landfall farther north near central Baja. The official NHC forecast splits the difference between these two solutions, and landfall could occur anywhere along a long stretch of the Baja coast. At this point, the UKMET model's solution taking Jimena westward out to sea is being discounted, since it is an outlier.

After Jimena makes initial landfall on Baja, it will cross over the Gulf of California and make landfall on Mainland Mexico. Depending upon how up along the coast this second landfall occurs, Arizona may receive moisture from Jimena late this week that will be capable of causing flooding rains.


Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Jimena taken by NASA'a MODIS instrument at 2020 UTC Sunday, 8/30/09.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) near 14.5N, 52W, about 500 miles east of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Visible satellite imagery and this morning's QuikSCAT pass do not show a surface circulation yet, though 94L does have a large envelope of moisture and some modest heavy thunderstorm activity. QuikSCAT noted winds up to 30 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably, and dry air from the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and the ocean temperature are a moderately warm 28°C. Visible satellite loops over the past two hours show low-level spiral bands developing on 94L's northeast side, and I give a 70% chance the Hurricane Hunters will find a tropical depression or tropical storm on Tuesday when they investigate 94L.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L, showing low-level spiral bands developing on the northeast side.

The center of 94L probably passed over Buoy 41040, located at 14.5N, 53W over the past hour. Winds blew northeasterly early this morning, then went calm, then shifted to southerly late this morning. The winds were less than 10 knots during the center passage, so the circulation of 94L is not yet well-defined. The pressure fell significantly as 94L moved over the buoy (seen only after one removes the wiggles due to daily atmospheric tide effect present in the tropics). 94L will appear on Martinique radar on Tuesday.

The forecast for 94L
Shear will remain low, 5 -10 knots, over the next 5 days, SSTs will be warm, in the 28 - 29°C range, and dry air should have only a minor inhibiting effect, so I can't see anything that will prevent 94L from developing into a tropical depression over the next 1 - 2 days. The HWRF model develops 94L into a hurricane 4 days from now, as does the SHIPS intensity model, but other models, such as the GFDL, ECMWF, and GFS, do not develop 94L at all.

Model solutions for the track of 94L are divergent. Water vapor satellite loops show two upper-level lows to the north and northwest of 94L that are pulling the storm to the west-northwest, and 94L's motion is expected to range between the west-northwest and northwest over the next three days. By Tuesday, 94L will slow down from its current 15 mph forward speed to about 10 mph. Most of the models predict that the steering influence of the upper-level lows will pull 94L far enough north that the storm will miss the Lesser Antilles, with a closest approach occurring Wednesday and Thursday. However, the ECMWF and HWRF models have 94L passing within 200 miles of the islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles may experience tropical storm conditions on Thursday.

At the longer ranges, the fate of 94L is highly uncertain. The Canadian model turns 94L to the north near Bermuda, then out to sea, while the NOGAPS model foresees a threat to the U.S. East Coast early next week. Both of these solutions are believable. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into 94L on Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The remains of an old cold front are bringing cloudiness and showers to the northern Gulf of Mexico and waters offshore North and South Carolina. The GFS and NAM models indicate an area of low pressure may develop along this old front near the Florida Panhandle or off the coast of North Carolina by Thursday. However, such a low may be extratropical and not tropical.

My next post will be between 3 - 5pm this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 856 - 806

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Quoting BrockBerlin:


I agree your SFLA situation is plausible but its a little too far out to be that specific.
i know, sorry if i was a bit mean, not a good day, lol, but I like to tell people in advance of the situation that way they don't go mad 12 hours before a hurricane comes and I say: "I told you so". LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A recent hurricane hunter report finds Jimena has sustained winds of 150 mph. This will be very bad for Cabo San Lucas if it gets a direct hit. The storm is drawing on not just the very warm waters off Mexico, but also probably the even warmer Gulf of California subflow as it's upwelled into the core of the storm. It will be interesting to see how it impacts the US Southwest. I expect it will be shattered as soon as it hits the cold wall of the California Current as well as the mountains of the Baja peninsula, but it does have a lot of momentum to spindown, not to mention copious moisture, so who knows?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seminolesfan:
Little early for Andrewcasting isn't it? It's still a poorly initialized invest. Turn the doom and gloom back down to 3, please.


I agree!!! I really enjoy this blog however I get a little tired of the wishcasting, I'm trying to learn a little about meterology however the comments like this just make me quite irritated. I live in Tampa so it scares me to death!

I survived Hurricane Katrina, was stuck there before, during and 5 days after so you know I freak out when someone says about an Andrew type hurricane coming before it's even a tropical depression...enjoy the now folks!

I understand if its an opinion however there too much power tripping here.. I REALLY enjoy StormW's forcasts...Now this man is really knowledgeable! He is one reason I come to this site!! Bravo!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wait and see folks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
852. IKE
Quoting Txwxchaser:
761. IKE 7:32 PM GMT on August 31, 2009
ECMWF is the most reliable model. If it shows 94L doing the same on the next couple of runs, I would bet my paycheck that is what will happen.

I'm not ready to say it is now, but if it shows it on a couple of more runs....


IKE...could you link for me please...thx


Link
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting cyclonekid:
Interesting...

for some reason...it won't post my image...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting canesrule1:
what?!?! lol, doomcaster, im just telling you what several reliable models are predicting.

the models don't even go that far out.

you're just extrapolating from their last position and assume it's gonna continue moving that same way when there's a good chance that it doesn't.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
847. JLPR


Well with this ascat, that isn't exactly new
I place the center at 15N 53W
so right now it must be somewhere near 54W
or right in the edge of the convection

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L looks good in terms of convection. But until it gets a center together, it's going nowhere. The RGB loop almost makes it look like it's trying to form two centers -- one under the smaller blob of convection on the west and one under the bigger blob on the right.

It's big and energetic but disorganized. And each day it doesn't organize reduces its potential for high intensity at landfall (if there is a landfall).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


thats what he was saying that all of florida does not feel every hurricane.

Yes, I was saying they don't ... It was RitaEvac that said they do.
I'm a "she" though. ;)
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
843. 100l
Quoting jeffs713:

What about the people who are filling in said hole, or rebuilding the house? They are increasing their wealth. Yes, things are being destroyed that were there before. But newer, more expensive things are being put into place. Many areas rebuild "bigger and better" after a wave of destruction. Many areas hit by Katrina are rebuilding to be more ecologically friendly, and more efficient. Same thing for areas hit by Ike. Not to mention, the people who are gaining the funds from rebuilding (construction, mostly) are injecting a good amount of their earnings back into the local economy.



I agree with this completely!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


thats what he was saying that all of florida does not feel every hurricane.

that's not what he said.

his exact words."By the way.....dont you know by now that if a storm hits Florida the whole friggin state feels it!"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


a good analogy is a forest fire, it may be destructive but it leads to bigger and better things.

Exactly. I knew there was a good analogy in there somewhere, I just couldn't remember it. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

What about the people who are filling in said hole, or rebuilding the house? They are increasing their wealth. Yes, things are being destroyed that were there before. But newer, more expensive things are being put into place. Many areas rebuild "bigger and better" after a wave of destruction. Many areas hit by Katrina are rebuilding to be more ecologically friendly, and more efficient. Same thing for areas hit by Ike. Not to mention, the people who are gaining the funds from rebuilding (construction, mostly) are injecting a good amount of their earnings back into the local economy.
google "broken window fallacy", a quick lesson in economics
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Wow!

Ike..

94L looks Good..

And Oz.. Your Seriously going to Ride out a Cat 4 or 5..????
A while back I used to be Jim Cantore jr., I used to go through the worst hurricanes, Charley, Andrew, Gilbert, and so on, I used to do CAT 4+ hurricanes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting largeeyes:
sammy, he has a cat 5 suit for just such an occasion.


It's not a Star Wars storm trooper suit, is it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
761. IKE 7:32 PM GMT on August 31, 2009
ECMWF is the most reliable model. If it shows 94L doing the same on the next couple of runs, I would bet my paycheck that is what will happen.

I'm not ready to say it is now, but if it shows it on a couple of more runs....


IKE...could you link for me please...thx
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterFL:
I love the troll on troll confrontations today! The Hurricrips vs The Cyclone Bloods


When you're a jet, you're a jet all the way...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So even though I've already said I think 94 should be TD 6, Quickcast denied me that right by not showing a closed circulation...any who, I still think the HH ought to fly out at 12z to check it out, I do think the circulation will close off. Why...?

Well, nice anticyclone overhead giving some upper level divergence which will cause (in the long term) deeper convection because of stronger surface convergence. Also, wind shear near the disturbance is low, and with the help of the upper high it should remain in the low to moderate range (IMO nothing above 20kts). Third, visible shows high cirrus in eastern quadrants, and outflow should only improve for 94L....just figured I would say why I thought 94 should be a TD soon, since people get bashed for not backing their thoughts up :)

Also, 18z models generally show a turn more westward after 24-36 hours...different than 2 days ago...and yesterday...and more west than this morning, it certainly bears watching! BTW, just want to say that I love weather!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
830. jipmg
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


compared to 24 hours? it looks amazing. Its about to reach peak DMIN and its still popping storm, tonight DMAX should be the last thing it needs to become a TC.


yes obviously it looks better, and the circulation has gathered more strength, but DMAX is nearly useless if there is alot of shear over the circulation..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

What about the people who are filling in said hole, or rebuilding the house? They are increasing their wealth. Yes, things are being destroyed that were there before. But newer, more expensive things are being put into place. Many areas rebuild "bigger and better" after a wave of destruction. Many areas hit by Katrina are rebuilding to be more ecologically friendly, and more efficient. Same thing for areas hit by Ike. Not to mention, the people who are gaining the funds from rebuilding (construction, mostly) are injecting a good amount of their earnings back into the local economy.


a good analogy is a forest fire, it may be destructive but it leads to bigger and better things.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6697
sammy, he has a cat 5 suit for just such an occasion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting canesrule1:
I agree, the TWO said there was NO surface circulation, have they seen the QuikSCAT? We might have 06L before 5PM if the HH find a closed surface circulation.


yes and the track is locking in more every second the high moves further west.

Good assesment canesrule1.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrockBerlin:
canesrule why did you change from a logical poster (last few days) to sort of a doomcaster now?
what?!?! lol, doomcaster, im just telling you what several reliable models are predicting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jipmg:
94L doesnt look so good to me.. I can see a clear circulation spnning itself WNW, but the convection is being sheared off it..


compared to 24 hours? it looks amazing. Its about to reach peak DMIN and its still popping storm, tonight DMAX should be the last thing it needs to become a TC.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6697
Quoting stormsurge39:
Is this right??


There's alot more that decides the future track of a system than the strength. The biggest factor in 94L's future track will be the ridge of high pressure and exactly how strong it builds in.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jimena has such a small windfield...30 miles!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting unlweatherman:


That's a bit of a fallacy. Destruction is the loss of wealth. It might appear to be a boom in the recovery, but ultimately you're spending money to simply fill in a hole, not create anything that wasn't there before. Destruction sucks for an economy long after the storm hits.

What about the people who are filling in said hole, or rebuilding the house? They are increasing their wealth. Yes, things are being destroyed that were there before. But newer, more expensive things are being put into place. Many areas rebuild "bigger and better" after a wave of destruction. Many areas hit by Katrina are rebuilding to be more ecologically friendly, and more efficient. Same thing for areas hit by Ike. Not to mention, the people who are gaining the funds from rebuilding (construction, mostly) are injecting a good amount of their earnings back into the local economy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrockBerlin:


Should be noted that stat. peak is in about 10-11 days.


You trying to rain on my parade? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
817. jipmg
94L doesnt look so good to me.. I can see a clear circulation spnning itself WNW, but the convection is being sheared off it..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
816. slavp
Quoting CycloneOz:
I have arrived at Cabo San Lucas. My room has wifi...so I'll be attempting a live hurricane webcam...although I'm very limited on static shots at this hotel...I'm blocks away from the ocean.

Everything is okay, but Cabo-people are beginning to freak out a bit. There are huge lines of waiting cars for gas and grocery stores are packed. The only places that seem calm are the poorer villages to the east. Everyone there is just sitting around looking at the sky.

I'm very busy getting my equipment ready to go first thing in the morning...so not many updates between now and then.

Current conditions. Hot, humid, overcast, light rain...and no wind to speak of.

It is the calm...

CycloneOz---
Good Luck Oz!!!! Be careful, looks like a monster heading your way!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For those of you guys following the ULL north of Puerto Rico the HH have found winds no higher than 5 MPH, so you can forget about it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RufusBaker:
94 wont go in gulf


Rufus...thanx for adding your intelligent input. Care to elaborate on the basis of your findings?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting amd:


it depends heavily on the convection and flight level, and in some cases, the forecaster.

Generally, it's about 90%, but there is some evidence to suggests that it varies from 60% to 110%. I think nrti would be a better source than I though on that last statement.

Personally, I think we will see a 155 mph hurricane at the next advisory.


At 700 mb flight level, its 90% for eyewall, outer vortex right quad 75%, outer vortex left quad 90%.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11307
Quoting CaneAddict:


You need to do some research before posting such a ridiculous comment. I am located just south of Tampa. There has been several hurricanes make landfall here in Florida the past decade and I didn't feel any affect. So your wrong.


thats what he was saying that all of florida does not feel every hurricane.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6697
You gotta give OZ credit. He's like the blog's own roving reporter...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneAddict:
94L has gotta be the scariest invest i've seen in a long time. You can just look at it and see future trouble.
I agree, the TWO said there was NO surface circulation, have they seen the QuikSCAT? We might have 06L before 5PM if the HH find a closed surface circulation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 856 - 806

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
20 °F
Bedeckt