Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Tazmanian:
Hurricane Season is about 97% over! but there may be a 3% ch of may be seeing one more name storm but they way it has been going out there i dont see it


so here how we did


8 name storms 2 hurricane and 2 cat 3 or higher storms

this is olny 2 less name storm then we had back in 2006


other then bill that made the most news this year this year have been dead for the most part other then a few vary wind shear TS this has been a vary good season



my forcast for 2010 call for a dead season

The two hurricanes we had is what strikes me as odd -- the average is 6.

2010 hurricane 17 name

that may be vary ture if if was a average year for name storms but has you can tell from this year this year was well below average has far has hurricanes go and well below average for name storms has well

Quoting xcool:
2010 hurricane 17 name

vary un likey at this time



it way too soon too give any kind of fac # has far has name storms go for next year wait in tell march

guess taz .

I'm ok with a dead or dying season. No sweat. I really don't mind one little bit. In fact, it is what I hope for. Time for sailing season to commence.

Quoting Tazmanian:
that may be vary ture if if was a average year for name storms but has you can tell from this year this year was well below average has far has hurricanes go and well below average for name storms has well

Seasonal activity for 2010 will likely be minimal if El Nino persists or intensifies.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Seasonal activity for 2010 will likely be minimal if El Nino persists or intensifies.

Are there any indications that el nino is expected to continue. Last I heard it was expected to diminish towards the end of winter. Also Taz, how can you say 2010 is a dead season and then criticize someone for specifying the opposite justified by it being too early?

Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "SANTI" continues to threaten Aurora-Quezon area.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
===============================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Santi (Mirinae) located at 15.2ºN 125.3ºE or 350 km east northeast of Infanta, Quezon has 10 minute sustained winds of 150 km/h (80 kts) with gustiness up to 185 km/h (100 kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Northern Quezon
2.Polillo Islands

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Aurora
2.Quirino
3.Nueva Ecija
4.Bulacan
5.Tarlac
6.Zambales
7.Pampanga
8.Bataan
9.Rizal
10.Cavite
11.Laguna
12.Batangas
13.Lubang Is.
14.Rest of Quezon
15.Camarines Norte
16.Camarines Sur
17.Catanduanes
18.Metro Manila

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
----------
1.Isabela
2.Ifugao
3.Nueva Vizcaya
4.Benguet
5.La Union
6.Pangasinan
7.Albay
8.Burias Is.
9.Sorsogon
10.Marinduque
11.Oriental Mindoro
12.Occidental Mindoro
13.Calamian Group

Additional Information
======================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

Quoting SouthALWX:

Are there any indications that el nino is expected to continue.

Jeff had a blog the other day stating that the possibility existed for intensification to a strong El Nino. Not sure if he expects it to persist into the spring/summer of 2010, though.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Jeff had a blog the other day stating that the possibility existed for intensification to a strong El Nino. Not sure if he expects it to persist into the spring/summer of 2010, though.

Oh ok. Hmm interesting. I wouldnt know I've been to busy to keep up with ENSO predictions a year into the future.

Japan Meteorological Agency

DEVELOPED LOW, FORMER LUPIT (T0920)
55.0ºN 174.0ºE - 992 hPa

SUBJECT: Developed Low In Bering Sea

Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "SANTI" is now approaching Quezon province.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
===============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Santi (Mirinae) located at 14.8ºN 124.1ºE or 230 kms east of Infanta, Quezon has 10 minute sustained winds of 150 km/h (80 kts) with gustiness up to 185 km/h (100 kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Quezon
2.Polillo island
3.Bulacan
4.Bataan
5.Rizal
6.Cavite
7.Laguna
8.Batangas
9.Oriental Mindoro
10.Lubang Island
11.Marinduque
12.Camarines Norte
13.Camarines Sur
14.Catanduanes
15.Metro Manila

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Aurora
2.Quirino
3.Nueva Ecija
4.Tarlac
5.Pampanga
6.Zambales
7.Occidental Mindoro
8.Albay
9.Burias Island

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
----------
1.Isabela
2.Ifugao
3.Nueva Vizcaya
4.Benguet
5.La Union
6.Pangasinan
7.Sorsogon
8.Masbate
9.Romblon
10.Calamian Group

Visayas Region
--------------
1.Northern Samar
2.Northern Panay

Additional Information
======================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

Remember: Even though its a moderate El Nino, it just became one were as 2006 it was moderate most of the year. Wouldn't be a huge shocker to see ENSO with a warm bias in 2010, similar to 2005. Climatological speaking.

"my forcast for 2010 call for a dead season"

This has no scientific background. This was said because everyone had the right to say something for something sake.

More than 80% of years following an El Nino is more than active. The most active hurricane season - 2005 was the year following an El Nino, the 2nd most active year in the modern history - 1995 was also after one of the longest-lived El Ninos 1991-1994. Other years after El Ninos:

1988, 1998 and 2007, all active seasons.

History also dictates this El Nino will peak into the winter and weaken thereafter. This is also predicted by leading climate models.

If we hit neutral next year it could be bad. El Nino will continue decrease cloud cover over the Tropics through next winter, reducing cooling dramatically. By next May, it may look like June because of the lack of cloud cover over the past winter.

The season may start late also as in 2004 and 1998 since El Nino conditions may lag a month or two ahead of the initial weakening.

If November SSTs are warmer than average over the N ATL this November, it could mean a continuation of a positive AMO.

In all 2010 is shaping up to be a year similar in numbers to the 1995-2008 average (no less than 12 named storms).

We must also remember 2009 is an anomaly.

Good morning. I did not see anything in my coffee.

Cloudy High
69°F

Precip
20%

Wind: From ESE at 13 mph
Max. Humidity: 83%
UV Index: 3 Moderate


Sunrise: 7:56 AM ET
Avg. High: 68°F
Record High: 84°F (1984)

Another great day here West of Atlanta

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

...DO NOT EXPECT
IT TO PAN OUT BUT ECMWF DOES TRY TO SPIN UP A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN
THE BAY OF CAMPHECHE NEXT WEEK AND SHUNT IT NORTHWEST TOWARD TEXAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR GIVEN THE MORE
LIKELY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THAT GULF THAT GFS IS PROGGING...

This October is a strange one, mega-ridges have been dominating the western Atlantic. All of the fronts (including the one from a couple days ago) degenerate before reaching central FL, as a result.

Weather456 11:06 AM GMT on October 30, 2009
"my forcast for 2010 call for a dead season"

This has no scientific background. This was said because everyone had the right to say something for something sake.

More than 80% of years following an El Nino is more than active. The most active hurricane season - 2005 was the year following an El Nino, the 2nd most active year in the modern history - 1995 was also after one of the longest-lived El Ninos 1991-1994. Other years after El Ninos:

1988, 1998 and 2007, all active seasons.

History also dictates this El Nino will peak into the winter and weaken thereafter. This is also predicted by leading climate models.

If we hit neutral next year it could be bad. El Nino will continue decrease cloud cover over the Tropics through next winter, reducing cooling dramatically. By next May, it may look like June because of the lack of cloud cover over the past winter.

The season may start late also as in 2004 and 1998 since El Nino conditions may lag a month or two ahead of the initial weakening.

If November SSTs are warmer than average over the N ATL this November, it could mean a continuation of a positive AMO.

In all 2010 is shaping up to be a year similar in numbers to the 1995-2008 average (no less than 12 named storms).

We must also remember 2009 is an anomaly.

Weather456 - Our voice of reason!

GOM IR Loop

636
fxus64 klix 300834
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
334 am CDT Friday Oct 30 2009


Synopsis...
front in Louisiana currently extends from about Monroe to Lake
Charles. Most precipitation is along and behind the front. Over
the last several hours...very little lightning with precipitation
along the front.


Over the local area...southeast winds at 10 to 15 miles per hour have kept
unseasonably warm and humid air over the area. 08z temperatures
are generally in the middle and upper 70s...above normal highs for
late October. Dew points also in the 70s.
&&


Short term...
sensible weather issues limited to the first 24-36 hours of the
forecast over land. Next jet maximum has entered the base of the trough
over Texas...and as this feature lifts out...trough takes on a
negative tilt...and gives the front a push eastward this afternoon
and tonight.


Front will enter the extreme western portion of the County Warning Area by middle to
late morning...and exit the County Warning Area around 03z this evening. Weak middle
level lapse rates...and limited instability would indicate that
best chances of severe weather will be north of our area as best
shear will be there as well. Main concern for our area will be
heavy rain...and that should be over northwestern portions of the
area. Most solutions indicate that rain amounts of 1-3 inches
possible over the next 18-24 hours with heaviest amounts
northwest. One hour ffg in excess of 2.5 inches...and 6 hour
generally 4 inches or greater. Will not carry Flash Flood Watch...but will
mention heavy rain in grids...zone forecast product and severe weather potential statement. Categorical probability of precipitation
generally for first two periods. Subsidence and drier air should
clear the entire area during the day on Saturday...with probability of precipitation only
mentioned in the morning hours.

Chamber of Commerce weather here in the Florida panhandle starting tomorrow night....

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. North northwest wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 73. North northwest wind around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 71.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 72.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 72.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 48.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

Quoting StormW:
El Nino

That El Nino is in the Central Pacific

Quoting KoritheMan:


Historically speaking, the year following an El Nino tends to be an above average season, unless El Nino happens to persist beyond one year, as was most recently the case from 1991-1994.

If the current El Nino does in fact reach strong levels, then 2010 will likely be a bust. However, ENSO cannot be accurately predicted that far out, and there is just as easily a chance that the season could be above average.

Time will tell.

You are right. That happened in 1995,1998,2003,(2004/weak el nino CPW)2005,2007,2010?

Morning all,
Quite a line of storms rolling across LA, TX, OK and points east yesterday. Anyone on here get in the thick of it? Any model runs showing tropical development?

Quoting beell:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

...DO NOT EXPECT
IT TO PAN OUT BUT ECMWF DOES TRY TO SPIN UP A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN
THE BAY OF CAMPHECHE NEXT WEEK AND SHUNT IT NORTHWEST TOWARD TEXAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR GIVEN THE MORE
LIKELY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THAT GULF THAT GFS IS PROGGING...

Good Flooded Friday Morning to you all. Best I can tell the Euro dropped that system. And as I sit here shivering I'm just gonna pretend I didn't read it anyway. :) Lol. I do a good ostrich impersonation. Temps steadily falling here. Dropped another degree just now to 54. I guess that means the rains are heading out. Hope so.

morning
is the convection at 14N 80W , the seedling of the development that Dr Masters has been hinting at for a possible november storm?

Patrap. Is that nasty little storm going to make it to GA. I have had enough rain in the last month and a half. During the flooding that happened here I was close to ground zero for the rain. I got 15 inches but live well above the flood plain. My neighbors were not so fortunate.

Morning, homeless!
Kinda the same weather here. Certainly not tropical! Have a good one.

Thanks for the great Barometer Bob support last night! It was lottsa fun...
Link

Quoting beell:
Morning, homeless!
Kinda the same weather here. Certainly not tropical! Have a good one.

Yes it does not feel tropical, for today anyway. :) Just looked outside at my flooded yard and only can imagine what the usual places look like. We are on high ground here, relatively speaking. I think the whole area is no higher than 13 ft. Lol.

The heat is really coming to the surface now, intensifying El Niño. The bottom one didn't go beyond yellow a few days ago. Told ya'll months ago we'd see at least moderate.

Here's a live panning web cam of Manilla, has the wind, temp & humidity. Takes a bit to load.

Quoting Weather456:
"my forcast for 2010 call for a dead season"

This has no scientific background. This was said because everyone had the right to say something for something sake.

More than 80% of years following an El Nino is more than active. The most active hurricane season - 2005 was the year following an El Nino, the 2nd most active year in the modern history - 1995 was also after one of the longest-lived El Ninos 1991-1994. Other years after El Ninos:

1988, 1998 and 2007, all active seasons.

History also dictates this El Nino will peak into the winter and weaken thereafter. This is also predicted by leading climate models.

If we hit neutral next year it could be bad. El Nino will continue decrease cloud cover over the Tropics through next winter, reducing cooling dramatically. By next May, it may look like June because of the lack of cloud cover over the past winter.

The season may start late also as in 2004 and 1998 since El Nino conditions may lag a month or two ahead of the initial weakening.

If November SSTs are warmer than average over the N ATL this November, it could mean a continuation of a positive AMO.

In all 2010 is shaping up to be a year similar in numbers to the 1995-2008 average (no less than 12 named storms).

We must also remember 2009 is an anomaly.

Please explain to me what that is....

Hints at a nor'easter snowstorm for the end of next week,have my doubts,but nothing this year surprises me

I suppose one of the biggest factors for the shear fest in 2009 is the fact that we have an El Nino, which has enhanced westerlies over the Atlantic basin due to increased convection over the East-Pac. Another contributing factor you could mention is the Caribbean low-level easterly jet, which destroyed Erika and I believe Ana to some extent. There is evidence of a correlation between El Nino and the strength of this jet. The accelerated easterly flow in the Eastern Caribbean can cause an area of low-level divergence in the entrance region of the jet, which suppresses convection there. Also, the accelerated easterly jet can increase shear as well, because it increases the vector difference between the 850 mb wind vector and 200 mb.

More info on that:

http://ams.allenpres...9BAMS2822.1.pdf

Adrian