A new world record wind gust: 253 mph in Australia's Tropical Cyclone Olivia
The 6,288-foot peak of New Hampshire's Mount Washington is a forbidding landscape of wind-swept barren rock, home to some of planet Earth's fiercest winds. As a 5-year old boy, I remember being blown over by a terrific gust of wind on the summit, and rolling out of control towards a dangerous drop-off before a fortuitously-placed rock saved me. Perusing the Guinness Book of World Records as a kid, three iconic world weather records always held a particular mystique and fascination for me: the incredible 136°F (57.8°C) at El Azizia, Libya in 1922, the -128.5°F (-89.2°C) at the "Pole of Cold" in Vostok, Antarctica in 1983, and the amazing 231 mph wind gust (103.3 m/s) recorded in 1934 on the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire. Well, the legendary winds of Mount Washington have to take second place now, next to the tropical waters of northwest Australia. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that the new world wind speed record at the surface is a 253 mph (113.2 m/s) wind gust measured on Barrow Island, Australia. The gust occurred on April 10, 1996, during passage of the eyewall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Olivia.
Figure 1. Instruments coated with rime ice on the summit of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire. Image credit: Mike Theiss.
Tropical Cyclone Olivia
Tropical Cyclone Olivia was a Category 4 storm on the U.S. Saffir-Simpson scale, and generated sustained winds of 145 mph (1-minute average) as it crossed over Barrow Island off the northwest coast of Australia on April 10, 1996. Olivia had a central pressure of 927 mb and an eye 45 miles in diameter at the time, and generated waves 21 meters (69 feet) high offshore. According to Black et al. (1999), the eyewall likely had a tornado-scale mesovortex embedded in it that caused the extreme wind gust of 253 mph. The gust was measured at the standard measuring height of 10 meters above ground, on ground at an elevation of 64 meters (210 feet). A similar mesovortex was encountered by a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in Hurricane Hugo of 1989, and a mesovortex was also believed to be responsible for the 239 mph wind gust measured at 1400 meters by a dropsonde in Hurricane Isabel in 2003. For reference, 200 mph is the threshold for the strongest category of tornado, the EF-5, and any gusts of this strength are capable of causing catastrophic damage.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Olivia a few hours before it crossed Barrow Island, Australia, setting a new world-record wind gust of 253 mph. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.
Figure 3. Wind trace taken at Barrow Island, Australia during Tropical Cyclone Olivia. Image credit: Buchan, S.J., P.G. Black, and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on Australia's Northwest Shelf", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.
Why did it take so long for the new record to be announced?
The instrument used to take the world record wind gust was funded by a private company, Chevron, and Chevron's data was not made available to forecasters at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) during the storm. After the storm, the tropical cyclone experts at BOM were made aware of the data, but it was viewed as suspect, since the gusts were so extreme and the data was taken with equipment of unknown accuracy. Hence, the observations were not included in the post-storm report. Steve Buchan from RPS MetOcean believed in the accuracy of the observations, and coauthored a paper on the record gust, presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston (Buchan et al., 1999). The data lay dormant until 2009, when Joe Courtney of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was made aware of it. Courtney wrote up a report, coauthored with Steve Buchan, and presented this to the WMO extremes committee for ratification. The report has not been made public yet, and is awaiting approval by Chevron. The verified data will be released next month at a World Meteorological Organization meeting in Turkey, when the new world wind record will become official.
New Hampshire residents are not happy
Residents of New Hampshire are understandably not too happy about losing their cherished claim to fame. The current home page of the Mount Washington Observatory reads, "For once, the big news on Mount Washington isn't our extreme weather. Sadly, it's about how our extreme weather--our world record wind speed, to be exact--was outdone by that of a warm, tropical island".
Comparison with other wind records
Top wind in an Atlantic hurricane: 239 mph (107 m/s) at an altitude of 1400 meters, measured by dropsonde in Hurricane Isabel (2003).
Top surface wind in an Atlantic hurricane: 211 mph (94.4 m/s), Hurricane Gustav, Paso Real de San Diego meteorological station in the western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, on the afternoon of August 30, 2008.
Top wind in a tornado: 302 mph (135 m/s), measured via Doppler radar at an altitude of 100 meters (330 feet), in the Bridge Creek, Oklahoma tornado of May 3, 1999.
Top surface wind not associated with a tropical cyclone or tornado: 231 mph (103.3 m/s), April 12, 1934 on the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire.
Top wind in a typhoon: 191 mph (85.4 m/s) on Taiwanese Island of Lanya, Super Typhoon Ryan, Sep 22, 1995; also on island of Miyakojima, Super Typhoon Cora, Sep 5, 1966.
Top surface wind not measured on a mountain or in a tropical cyclone: 207 mph (92.5 m/s) measured in Greenland at Thule Air Force Base on March 6, 1972.
Top wind measured in a U.S. hurricane: 186 mph (83.1 m/s) measured at Blue Hill Observatory, Massachusetts, during the 1938 New England Hurricane.
References
Buchan, S.J., P.G. Black, and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on Australia's Northwest Shelf", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.
Black, P.G., Buchan, S.J., and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Tropical Cyclone Eyewall Mesovortex: A Physical Mechanism Explaining Extreme Peak Gust Occurrence in TC Olivia, 4 April 1996 on Barrow Island, Australia", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.
Jeff Masters
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If you live nearly anywhere in North America, Europe, or Asia, it’s no news that December 2009 and early January 2010 were cold. This image illustrates how cold December was compared to the average of temperatures recorded in December between 2000 and 2008. Blue points to colder than average land surface temperatures, while red indicates warmer temperatures. Much of the Northern Hemisphere experienced cold land surface temperatures, but the Arctic was exceptionally warm. This weather pattern is a tale-tell sign of the Arctic Oscillation.
The Arctic Oscillation is a climate pattern that influences winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere. It is defined by the pressure difference between air at mid-latitudes (around 45 degrees North, about the latitude of Montreal, Canada or Bordeaux, France) and air over the Arctic. A low-pressure air mass usually dominates the Arctic, and while higher pressure air sits over the mid-latitudes. This pressure difference generates winds that confine extremely cold air to the Arctic. Sometimes, the pressure systems weaken, decreasing the pressure difference between the Arctic and midlatitudes and allowing chilly Arctic air to slide south while warmer air creeps north. A weaker-than-normal Arctic Oscillation is said to be negative. When the pressure systems are strong, the Arctic Oscillation is positive.
Throughout December 2009, the North Atlantic Oscillation was strongly negative, said the National Weather Service. This image shows the impact of the negative Arctic Oscillation on land surface temperatures throughout the Northern Hemisphere as observed by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. Cold Arctic air chilled the land surface at midlatitudes, while Arctic land, such as Greenland and Alaska, was much warmer than usual.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=42260
THE ACQUITTAL OF CARBON DIOXIDE
by Jeffrey A. Glassman, PhD
I'm sure you read the response from Gavin Schmidt aswell ;)
http://www.rocketscientistsjournal.com/2006/11/gavin_schmidt_on_the_acquittal.html
Sorry for the typo, LoL
Did you read the article you posted ?
CONCLUSION
Categorically, each of Gavin Schmidt's criticisms of the Acquittal of Carbon Dioxide missed its mark
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2010-01/nsfc-gpt012710.php
GOES-P proceeds toward launch
The latest Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, GOES-P is proceeding through more checks in preparation for its launch, which is no earlier than March 1.
The GOES-P spacecraft continues being processed at the Astrotech Facility in Titusville, Fla. The Imager, Sounder and Solar X-Ray Imager have completed cleaning and inspections. The optical port covers have been successfully installed. Those covers are one of the last mechanisms to be deployed once GOES-P gets into orbit.
GOES-P is the latest weather satellite developed by NASA to aid the nation's meteorologists and climate scientists. GOES satellites provide the familiar weather pictures seen on United States television newscasts every day. GOES provides nearly continuous imaging and sounding, which allows forecasters to better measure changes in atmospheric temperature and moisture distributions, which increase the accuracy of their forecasts. GOES environmental information is used for a host of applications, including weather monitoring and prediction models.
[more]
Going up on this Delta IV:
Thanks, intresting report/discussion.
I wonder if Portlight can get NASA to donate some of this stuff for auction? For real !
Wired Science News for Your Neurons --- NASA Garage Sale Includes Shuttles, Engines, Space Suits
By Jason Paur January 21, 2010
Nope
You can probably reach him via his cell phone.
Yes texas is as of now.. hope u stay safe!
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has just been put into affect for the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX Metroplex
Give it to me, plz?
I don't have it.
A 10 percent drop in water vapor ten miles above Earth's surface has had a big impact on global warming, say researchers in a study published online January 28 in the journal Science. The findings might help explain why global surface temperatures have not risen as fast in the last ten years as they did in the 1980s and 1990s.
---------------
"Current climate models do a remarkable job on water vapor near the surface. But this is different %u2014 it's a thin wedge of the upper atmosphere that packs a wallop from one decade to the next in a way we didn't expect," says Susan Solomon, NOAA senior scientist and first author of the study.
My initial reactions:
1. No mention of the solar minimum? Seems undeniable that it has some impact and maybe these 2 effects are either:
a: acting in concert
b: the water vapor changes are caused by the solar minimum
2. "climate models do a remarkable job on water vapor near the surface" !?! And you know that because someone validated the results of a mixing ratio forecast 50 years into the future, or what?
3. Regardless of 1 or 2, above, seems that we continue to learn new things about it all and how they play together...and every time we learn one new thing, we discover at least 2 questions that need to be answered. (Don't think me ungrateful for this study, every piece is something and needs to be researched, surely.)
The NOAA press release: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100128_watervapor.html
The Science paper: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/science.1182488
So, open question, if the solar minimum did not cause the 10% drop in stratospheric water vapor after 2000, what did? The PDO? (How?) Anything else come to mind? (I feel like I am forgetting something)
According to the AP:
The reason for the decline is unknown, according to researchers led by Susan Solomon of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100128/ap_on_sc/us_sci_waning_water
Nice to be reminded how little we know from time to time...here I am flood...stuck with what we don't know.
Looks like i will get severe weather probably sum time in the evening.. :(
Seems the "Damaging T-Storms" might be a little too strong here:
I mean the evenin of friday.. lol whoops ;)
Ya probably.. i still believe we get thunderstorms it sum may be strong tho.. That L is looking good and looks like the moisture is ready to wrap around soon..
Water vapor is the strongest greenhouse gas we know.
I think the lower increase of average temperature after 2000 could be attributed to the process of melt.
Either way, when solar activity picks back up, the water vapor will as well. If the decline in solar activity was responsible for the water vapor decrease, then an increase will create a positive feedback mechanism. Since going from solar minimum to maximum usually corresponds to a +0.1C increase in global temperatures, that much increase from solar activity alone could result in the next three years. However, with the increase in water vapor, and the increase in evaporation due to a higher temperature, this positive feedback mechanism will accelerate even further. Now, with the economy recovering, CO2 emissions will also likely be on the rise, and when combined with other positive feedbacks such as methane clathrate releases, I reckon that global temperatures will exceed +1.0C (+1.8F) above 1900 levels by 2015, and possibly earlier. What this means is that global warming is very likely to accelerate early this decade, and that the decade of relative stability in global temperature trends is over. If oscillations such as El Nino arise in strong phases, then this acceleration will be pushed farther. Arctic sea ice will likely start to melt faster as it has for the past few years, even without the acceleration, and I estimate that by 2016 the area of 50%+ Arctic sea ice in summer will be reduced to a chunk of 400,000 square km. From that point, more tipping points are likely to pass.
Updated: 18 min 39 sec ago
28 °F
Light Snow
Windchill: 22 °F
Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: 21 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the ENE
Pressure: 30.26 in (Falling)
Visibility: 7.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 900 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2700 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 873 ft
It says it is snowing but when I look out the window it is rain, not frozen, not in flakes, just wet cold rain
So what if the stratospheric water vapor is tied to something else and continues to decline?
And what if it's relative effect is stronger than that of the solar minimum/maximum? Not saying it is, but I am saying that we don't know it isn't.
lol. I don't think so...
It was already DEAD. DOA
The RUC 20z analysis shows a warm air layer above the surface favoring rain or sleet.
Looks like there will be a lot of flooding on major rivers in the US this spring.
Yap!
I'm in a tiny area that is not in the heavy rain/flooding nor the ice/snow. I don't think they're sure which will win out.
"A slightly shocking finding," Tripati said, "is that the only time in the last 20 million years that we find evidence for carbon dioxide levels similar to the modern level of 387 parts per million was 15 to 20 million years ago, when the planet was dramatically different."
Levels of carbon dioxide have varied only between 180 and 300 parts per million over the last 800,000 years — until recent decades, said Tripati, who is also a member of UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics. It has been known that modern-day levels of carbon dioxide are unprecedented over the last 800,000 years, but the finding that modern levels have not been reached in the last 15 million years is new.
Prior to the Industrial Revolution of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the carbon dioxide level was about 280 parts per million, Tripati said. That figure had changed very little over the previous 1,000 years. But since the Industrial Revolution, the carbon dioxide level has been rising and is likely to soar unless action is taken to reverse the trend, Tripati said.
"During the Middle Miocene (the time period approximately 14 to 20 million years ago), carbon dioxide levels were sustained at about 400 parts per million, which is about where we are today," Tripati said. "Globally, temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer, a huge amount."
Tripati's new chemical technique has an average uncertainty rate of only 14 parts per million.
"We can now have confidence in making statements about how carbon dioxide has varied throughout history," Tripati said.
In the last 20 million years, key features of the climate record include the sudden appearance of ice on Antarctica about 14 million years ago and a rise in sea level of approximately 75 to 120 feet.
"We have shown that this dramatic rise in sea level is associated with an increase in carbon dioxide levels of about 100 parts per million, a huge change," Tripati said. "This record is the first evidence that carbon dioxide may be linked with environmental changes, such as changes in the terrestrial ecosystem, distribution of ice, sea level and monsoon intensity."
Today, the Arctic Ocean is covered with frozen ice all year long, an ice cap that has been there for about 14 million years.
"Prior to that, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic," Tripati said.
Some projections show carbon dioxide levels rising as high as 600 or even 900 parts per million in the next century if no action is taken to reduce carbon dioxide, Tripati said. Such levels may have been reached on Earth 50 million years ago or earlier, said Tripati, who is working to push her data back much farther than 20 million years and to study the last 20 million years in detail.
More than 50 million years ago, there were no ice sheets on Earth, and there were expanded deserts in the subtropics, Tripati noted. The planet was radically different.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/10/091008152242.htm
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