Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 03:08 PM GMT am 19. März 2010 | +2 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Yea its pretty far south, so it should be interesting to watch
!!!???
Upstate new york, we havent had snow for 2 weeks and it hasnt snowed in a month. It's been near 60 degrees and sunny all week.
Thank you Storm for the answers.
WTPN21 PGTW 202300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.3N 146.7E TO 7.1N 138.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 202030Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 145.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.9N
148.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER AN ORGANIZING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202014Z SSMI 37H MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWED A DEEP BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LLCC WAS STARTING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE LLCC IS UNDER A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN ANTICYCLONE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LOW TO MODERATE (15 KNOTS) AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE/OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ARE FAVORABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC AND WILL CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE DEVE-
LOPING DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTEN-
TIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
Was kind of expecting that to occur
2010032018
4.3 146.7
7.1 138.7
210
4.6 145.6
202300
1003202251
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 202300
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.3N 146.7E TO 7.1N 138.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 202030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.6N 145.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 212300Z.
//
9810031806 23N1566E 15
9810031812 24N1559E 15
9810031818 25N1552E 15
9810031900 26N1543E 15
9810031906 25N1533E 20
9810031912 23N1522E 20
9810031918 28N1509E 20
9810032000 33N1498E 20
9810032006 39N1487E 20
9810032012 43N1471E 20
9810032018 46N1456E 20
NNNN
(2010)
What I've been noticing about the comparison maps, of water temp in the gulf, complaring 2005 to this year...
in 2005, the water seemed like it was warming up gradually, all across the gulf. This year, the hot water seems to be just pouring in- there's a greater line of demarcation in the water temp changes this year.
Don't know if that makes sense, or if it's even important, just what I observed.
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (SE OF GUAM)
B. 20/2030Z
C. 5.0N
D. 143.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
20/1628Z 4.4N 145.9E MMHS
GATES
Other than that, yeah the usual bathtub/hot-tub GOM.
Yes Aqua, that is because the AMO (Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) is still in its warm phase, meaning that strong, deep ocean currents like the gulf stream and the loop current are still warmer than normal. The loop current is especially so this year, which is why you can see it as a warm anomaly even though the surrounding water is frigid right now, thus the demarcation you are talking about.
What this means is that as soon as the cold winter ceases across the south and spring moves in, the sun will be allowed to begin its spring heating of the ocean, and the Loop Current will help out a lot, pouring warm water into the gulf from the Caribbean. This is why the gulf is not expected to stay as cold as it is right now.
Strong warm currents.
I knew there had to be some reason why the pouring effect was so vivid to me.
No sir, don't like it a bit.
Well, except in that one analog year, 1964...
other than that, best quote I've read in weeks!
Doesn't look like it. Link
But we still have some great priceson weather equipment- radios too- and a possible end-of-the-month blowout on Vantage Vues.
Link
Um, didnt we establish that the first wave of the season happened today?? Or was that a "surface trough"? Can someone explain the difference?
In the back side/eastern side they had winds of 54kts gusts 72kts @ 2:42am.
Roughly about 2hrs from wall to wall.
This was an area of low pressure/convergence at the surface with no sign of wave structure farther up. TPC said trough. No reason in my opinion to argue the point.
Cool, but makes no sense. The hottest color should be red, with white being any higher like "off the chart", I feel thats intuitively what the colors should be.
This picture is really cool though. Imagine being at the beach in like, alabama and the water suddenly gets 10 degrees (F) hotter... what would you think, surge of hot water from the carribean, or the more intuitive guess that someone near you.. did something.
Video
CYCLONE Ului has crossed the coast near Airlie Beach, its destructive winds sounding like the scream of jet engines as it moved into north Queensland.
Sixty thousand homes are without power, airports are closed, boats have been washed ashore and houses have been damaged after Ului slammed into the state's north.
``We are characterising it as a significant event with severe damage in some pockets, but not a catastrophic event,'' Anna Bligh told the Seven Network hours after Ului hit.
She said the damage assessment had only just begun and it was clear some residents had been hit hard.
``We know already that there are reports of a number of houses completely unroofed,'' she said, adding that with winds still high, help would be some time away for those families.
Ms Bligh said the focus now was on the flood risk from heavy rain associated with the weather system.
Ergon Energy corporate communications manager John Fowler said customers were without power in Mackay, Proserpine, Cannonvale, Sarina and surrounding areas.
Ergon also believed a high-voltage powerline into Bowen from Prosperpine may have been affected.
In Mackay, trees and powerlines were down this morning and there was some structural damage to houses and fences.
AAP reports that Airlie Beach has survived the cyclone relatively unscathed, but vessels moored there have not been so lucky.
About a dozen boats, including a former Sydney to Hobart contender, have been washed onto rocks by Cyclone Ului at Airlie Beach.
The power remains cut and trees are littering the roads.
But businesses in the main street have escaped any significant damage from the storm
Vessels that had been moored at the Whitsundays Sailing Club did not fare so well.
About a dozen are on the shore, grating against rocks, including the 26-metre Anaconda II, a former racing maxi that has sailed around the world and competed in the Sydney to Hobart race.
It's now used to take backpackers on sailing trips.
Most appear to be private vessels but all are of a substantial size.
There is one fishing trawler among those washed ashore.
Premier Anna Bligh will meet with emergency service management at Kedron at 8am today.
The Whitsundays mayor says power has been cut and many trees are down in Bowen and Proserpine but it's too early to know what damage Cyclone Ului has done.
``It's still dark and pretty breezy here,'' mayor Mike Brunker said.
``I'm driving around the main street of Bowen now and there's a lot of trees down and there's been similar damage in Proserpine.''
He said he expected a wave of calls to Bowen's disaster centre once people began to venture outside.
He said the power had been out in Bowen since 1am (AEST) on Sunday, half an hour before Ului crossed the coast as a category three storm near Airlie Beach, south of Bowen.
[Video: Cyclone Ului hits Airlie Beach ]
As it crossed the coast, Ului had winds gusting to 200km/h.
It's since been downgraded to a category two, with communities from Bowen south to Seaforth told to expect gusts to 155km/h this morning.
The storm's power as it slammed ashore stunned residents, with the scream of the wind making it almost impossible to sleep.
The Courier-Mail's Sophie Elsworth, who was staying in a Mackay Marina multi-storey hotel built to withstand Category 5 storm, said the sound of the wind was amazing.
She said colleague Rob Maccoll, who was staying in the hotel's top floor, was worried the property might lose its roof when the force of the wind - which sounded "like a 747" - blew in the door of a neighbouring unit.
Trees and powerlines were down around Mackay and it was understood conditions were worse around AirlieBeach and Proserpine.
She said the State Emergency Service had not sent its personnel out the begin repair work because the wind at Mackay was still blowing at 112km/h and wind speeds needed to drop below 100km/h before they would venture out.
Even at 5.30am, as the cyclone continued to move inland, the wind continued to howl.
At 1.30am today, the cyclone made landfall near Airle Beach then at 4 am it was about 51 kilometres east northeast of Collinsville and 29 kilometres west of Proserpine.
At 4am the Bureau of Meteorology warned that while the cyclone was expected to weaken as it moved further inland, very destructive wind gusts to 195 km/hr near "are expected to continue affecting the coastal and island communities between Ayr and Seaforth for the next hour or two".
Emergency workers and residents in north Queensland are waiting for daybreak to find out the extent of the damage caused by Cyclone Ului as it crossed the coast.
The Bureau of Meteorology says by then conditions should have eased from the destructive winds that hit the Whitsunday Islands and Airlie Beach early on Sunday, bringing down trees and power lines and causing widespread blackouts.
At its peak winds were reaching around 200km/h.
Residents near the eye of the cyclone are being warned not to go outside because conditions will become dangerous again once the eye has passed.
The Bureau also said damaging were expected in areas between Townsville and St Lawrence "over the next few hours, and extending to adjacent inland parts during the morning".
It also said that while winds would ease throughout during the afternoon, there was a danger that heavy rainfall would lead to flooding about the coast and nearby in land between Bowen and St Lawrence.
The Bureau said tides in the area were near the highest of the year "with very rough seas and dangerous conditions along the foreshore".
It also warned of dangerous surf conditions south of the cyclone until later today.
Last night Mackay Regional Council mayor Col Meng said the city's disaster management group had bunkered down in the centre of town, prepared for the worst.
"Once the winds reach 100km/h we are saying no more people or staff are able to leave here until the cyclone crosses the coast,'' he said. "It's going to be a long night and we just have to sit it out and go from there.
"I think people have taken heed and we have been asking them to prepare for this for four or five days now.''
As strong gusts intensified around Mackay, dozens of people gathered at Slade Point to view the roaring ocean crashing into the coast.
Mr Meng said he was also concerned about flooding hitting the region. "We think we will get 170km/h winds down here and one of things I see happening is the intensifying of rain,'' he said. "I believe in Mackay and in the hinterland they will receive between 300 and 350mm of rain.
"We've had over one metre of rain already this year and everything is saturated, so anything we get now is going to run off.''
He expected significant flooding would also occur in the Pioneer River region.
Earlier on Saturday afternoon Premier Anna Bligh declared a disaster zone across the state's central and northern coast in anticipation of Tropical Cyclone Ului. The declaration gave authorities the right to conduct mandatory evacuations in eight local government areas.
Ms Bligh said the disaster declarations were for the Townsville, Burdekin, Whitsunday, Charters Towers, Mackay, Isaac, Rockhampton and Central Highlands local government areas and was in anticipation that some properties could need to be evacuated.
Forecasters from the Bureau of Meteorology's Cyclone Warning Centre yesterday said there was a high seas warning current for Cardwell to Bowen with 45 to 65 knot winds forecast. The centre was expecting seas between three to four metres onshore, and in the open seas, a swell of 4.5m possibly reaching five to eight metres."
A spokeswoman for the State Emergency Services said volunteers were ready to respond and crews from around the state are ready to deploy to the affected region if required.
Tourists have been evacuated from a number of island resorts in the Whitsundays group, and boat operators have been told to stay in port.
Coal ports along the central Queensland coast have been closed. Mackay and Proserpine airports also closed. Earlier, Jetstar suspended flights to Hamilton Island over the weekend.
Link
* From: AAP
* March 21, 2010 10:23AM
QUEENSLAND has escaped catastrophic damage from Cyclone Ului, Premier Anna Bligh said today.
Ms Blight said there were "pockets of severe damage" in the Whitsundays region, where the cyclone made landfall as a category three storm early today. But generally the region had been spared the worst of the storm, which packed 200km/h winds.
"We know already that there are reports of a number of houses completely unroofed," she told Channel 7.
But she said the worst had not eventuated.
"We are characterising it as a significant event with severe damage in some pockets, but not a catastrophic event," the premier said.
The focus now was on the flood risk from heavy rain associated with the cyclone.
"There is still a lot of rain in this system and we are watching very carefully to see if that now turns into a flooding event," she said.
Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.
"We're certainly not out of the woods yet."
Ms Bligh said affected communities had only had about an hour of daylight so far, so the process of assessing the damage was in the earliest stages.
Winds remained high, preventing crews from getting out to restore power and provide other help.
"It will be some time before we've got a very clear picture, and some time before some of those crews can get out and help people who have lost roofs off their houses," Ms Bligh said.
She paid tribute to the people of the Whitsundays, saying they'd taken the cyclone threat very seriously.
"As usual it's hats off to the people in north Queensland, they are very resilient communities with a lot of experience (with cyclones)."
She defended her government's decision yesterday to issue disaster declarations for the region, saying it gave police the power to evacuate people.
"As it turns out they didn't need to use those powers but it was a precaution."
Cyclone Ului crossed the coast near Airlie Beach at 1.30am (AEST) today.
It has since been downgraded to a category one cyclone and is weakening as it heads inland.
Forecasters expect it to be a rain depression by Sunday afternoon and are warning of heavy rainfall and flooding in coastal and inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence.
Emergency Services Minister Neil Roberts earlier said there had been reports of some structural damage to homes, such as broken windows, leaks and damaged roofs.
Several homes in Proserpine are said to have lost their roofs completely.
Many trees are down across the region, where power has been cut to 60,000 customers.
About a dozen boats have also washed ashore at Airlie Beach.
Yes, damage is not as bad as expected. thank god
I found one, Ironically on the same site, with the color scheme i described. Red means hot, shades of white to mean white-hot. Well, like 29+ degrees C
I have questions about what is going on with ENSO that the experts here can answer.
1-Is there another kevin wave causing the waters to keep warm?
2-Is it known when those kevin waves stop?
3-What is a reactionary El Nino?
4-Are the ENSO models too fast fading El Nino?
5-Is it possible that this El Nino extends to a two year event?
1~ yes..check page 16 here. We had the second strongest Kelvin wave this El Niño mid last month. That has certainly extended the event.
2~ No.. usually el nino only lasts through one winter, though 97-98 was an exception. If we were to pull out of this El Nino climotoligy says Decish for a peak & ease out. November was also the strongest Kelvin wave.. Didn't have one til Jan & it was much weaker..looked like the end of it, til last month there was a pretty strong causing a new pool of warm water.
3~ I would like to see a link to some sort of "offical" definition or published paper of that. As early as April 2009 it looked like we would be headed back toward warmer waters because a weak parade of Kelvin waves began (once again ref page 16 of that link).
4~ I agree with Masters. It's a more uncertain time in forecasting ENSO beyond spring. After last month's stronger than expected Kelvin wave I'll see what kinda wave Mar brings.. usually the ensamble crashes an el nino a little early & hard. So yes the models are most likely a little over done.
5~ it is possible, but not probable.
The topic is "Hurricane Names" and the answer is...."Arlene".
What is the question? Try not to use the Google.
Me neither..The weekly pretty much points out the strong Kelvin wave last month. Current T-depth so look like the start of an El Nino, so it's shook my trust in anything beyond 3 months. I can't think of the last time I had less than a 6 month outlook.
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