Globe has 1st or 2nd warmest March on record; El Niño fades to weak category
The globe recorded its warmest March since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. The March temperature anomaly of 0.77°C (1.39°F) beat the previous record set in 2002 by 0.03°C. The last time the globe had a record warmest month was in January 2007 (according to NOAA) or in November 2009 (according to NASA). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated March 2010 the second warmest March on record, 0.01°C behind the record set in 2002. The year-to-date period, January - March, is the 4th warmest such period on record, according to NOAA, and the warmest on record, according to NASA. March 2010 global ocean temperatures were the warmest on record, while land temperatures were the 4th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in March, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups. The March temperature anomaly of 0.66°C was the third highest monthly anomaly on record, behind the 0.76°C anomalies measured in February and April of 1998.
For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from March 2010.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center.
A warm March for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 32nd warmest March in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. For the third month in a row, Florida was the coldest state, relative to average. It was Florida's 4th coldest March. No other state had a top-ten coldest March. Rhode Island had its warmest March on record, and thirteen other states had a top-ten warmest March, including all of New England, plus Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Montana.
U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., March 2010 ranked as the 35th driest in the 116-year record. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Montana recorded a top-ten driest March. However, all-time March precipitation records were set in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. New Hampshire and Connecticut each had a top-five wettest March. At the end of March, 2.0% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is the lowest March drought footprint in the U.S. in the past ten years.
Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in April. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. No computer models predict El Niño conditions and six predict La Niña for the upcoming hurricane season (ASO, August-September-October). The rest of the models predict neutral conditions. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.
El Niño fades from moderate to weak
El Niño slowly weakened during late March and early April, and El Niño conditions crossed the threshold from moderate to weak during the past two weeks. Sea surface temperatures over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 0.83°C above average on April 11, which is just below the 1.0°C threshold to be considered a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Anomalously strong westerly winds along the Equator that had helped maintain the current El Niño slackened in late March, and winds are now near average over the Equatorial Pacific. It now appears very likely that El Niño will be gone by hurricane season. None of the sixteen El Niño models (updated as of April 15) are predicting El Niño will be around during the height of hurricane season (August-September-October); six are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. The expected demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, have prompted two major hurricane forecasting groups (tropicalstormrisk.com and Colorado State University) to predict a well-above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
March sea ice extent in the Arctic 5th lowest on record
March 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 5th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic during much of March 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland, and the Arctic lost less ice this winter compared to the previous few years. The larger amount of multi-year ice could help more ice to survive the summer melt season. However, this replenishment consists primarily of younger, two- to three-year-old multi-year ice; the thickest ice more than three years old has continued to decline.
Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano continues to disrupt European air travel
The Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland erupted Wednesday, sending a towering cloud of volcanic ash 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') high in the air from its 1666 meter (5500') high peak. The ash cloud continues to cause a dramatic interruption of air traffic over much of northern Europe today, and this disruption will spread southwards and eastwards as the ash cloud gradually spreads and disperses. For the latest forecasts of where the ash cloud is expected to go, consult the UKMET Office. The Norwegian Institute for Air Research runs a computer trajectory model called FLEXPART that has longer, 3-day forecasts. The FLEXPART model shows that ash will continue to be a problem for much of Europe through Tuesday. Spain and Portugal look like the best bet to have airports that will stay open. An excellent source of links of information on the eruption is available at http://islande2010.mbnet.fr/2010/04/eyjafjallajok ul-links-liens-a-propos-de-leyjafjallajokul/. My post on Thursday discusses the likely non-impact of this eruption on Earth's climate.
Figure 3. Forecast extent of the plume from the Iceland volcano with the unpronounceable name. Forecast was made at 17 UTC Saturday, April 17, 2010, and is valid for 12 UTC Tuesday, April 20, 2010. Image credit: Norwegian Institute for Air Research.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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my skepticism isn't for the greater good. Im not trying to help anyone per se, just trying to be scientifically correct. I have the right to disagree for the sake of disagreeing should I choose. I've seen the data. Ive listened to the experts. And I've followed the money. As it stands, there is not enough data to convince me otherwise. One thing I know for certain, it doesn't matter for the sake of the world who's right or who's wrong. History has shown us that humanity isn't proactive, to think it is now is idealistic at best and Utopian at worst.
I'm simply saying there is more to it than some people are willing to admit. CO2 is not an open and shut case. It just isn't. Again, in 20-30 years we should be able to plainly see if CO2 is the driver. I'm not saying it can't be the driver, but if we get some cooling during the cold PDO, then it can't be. And, if we continue to warm during the coming cold PDO, then a lot of these ideas about CO2 being our enemy are probably right. I would just like people to wait for the objective data over a complete climate cycle....we've only observed the warming period of it with satellites.
so the earth is not dynamic
and never have had oscillations ????
the changes are produced always by the humans
Link
see you tomorrow or the next week
No university? My professors agree with me! =P
I wont drop names because until it's on paper, Im not one to say who said what. There are a few, however, who have penned a few writings. You can do a quick search on USA & UAH to see who and exactly what their points of view. As far as my professor this particular year, the general feeling is that we don't know enough to say which way or the other.
Link
So far Katla has not erupted.
tomorrow is next week
The Entry Team is about to come on console at JSC,but the weather at KSC looks to be NO GO observed at the moment, with not much improvement to the Forecast for a KSC Landing this am for Discovery.
KSC END OF MISSION LANDING WEATHER FLIGHT RULES
The end of mission landing weather forecast is prepared by the NOAA National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group in Houston for the astronauts, Flight Director and Mission Management Team. All criteria refer to observed and forecast weather conditions. Decision time for the deorbit burn is 70 - 90 minutes before landing. The weather criteria are:
* Cloud coverage of 4/8 or less below 8,000 feet and a visibility of 5 miles or greater required.
* The peak cross wind cannot exceed 15 knots, 12 knots at night. If the mission duration is greater than 20 days the limit is 12 knots, day and night.
* Headwind cannot exceed 25 knots.
* Tailwind cannot exceed 10 knots average, 15 knots peak.
* No thunderstorm, lightning, or precipitation activity is within 30 nautical miles of the Shuttle Landing Facility.
* Detached opaque thunderstorm anvils less than three hours old must not be within 20 nautical miles of the Shuttle Landing Facility, or within 10 nautical miles of the flight path when the orbiter is within 30 nautical miles of the runway.
* Turbulence must be less than or equal to moderate intensity.
* Consideration may be given for landing with a "no go" observation and a "go" forecast if at decision time analysis clearly indicates a continuing trend of improving weather conditions, and the forecast states that all weather criteria will be met at landing time.
If you are familiar with METAR or TAF codes, you should be able to understand our forecasts; however, help interpreting our forecasts is available. Occasionally forecasts from simulations and exercises may appear on this site. Always check the valid times listed on the products. The Space Shuttle has strict landing weather requirements. A simplified version of the End-of-Mission requirements is described here. Where are the Space Shuttle landing sites? Click here to find out where.
As far as being a severe eruption, like Laki in 1783-84, I am not sure.
Katla, if or when it erupts will be about 20 times worse than the current eruption. Then the concern will be for serious flooding, due to glacier melt and another major ash cloud covering many portions of Europe and Russia. Only time will tell.
The Laki Volcano is the one that caused all the trouble in 1783-84, lets hope that volcano does not go, there will definitely be serious problems around the world.
000
NOUS54 KWNJ 180906
OAVJSC
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
300 AM CDT SUNDAY APRIL 18 2010
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-131
EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 04/19/10
TIME: 1248Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - MONDAY 04/19/10
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 BKN080 OVC250 7 03009P13
SHRA WI 30NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SCT100 BKN250 7 22006P10
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SCT040 OVC100 7 11006P10
CHC TSRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... PRECIP
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... PRECIP/TS
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM 1 - TUESDAY 04/20/10
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT050 SCT100 BKN250 7 03010P15
SLGT CHC SHRA WI 30NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SCT100 BKN250 7 22012P19
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SCT070 BKN120 BKN200 7 23005P08
SLGT CHC SHRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... PRECIP
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... PRECIP
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED
KSC...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
ICAO ID IS KTTS
EDW...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
ICAO ID IS KEDW
NOR...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)
WILEY/HOOD/GARNER
The little volcano that could!
Link
am I the only one waiting on some BoomBoom? a little less than two hours to go, I hope.
Morning,I heard this morning the weather might not be good. So hows the weather over there?
Not sure what conditions are like at the landing site.
OK, There you have it. Thanks for letting us know. Have a great day. :)
Yep, Hwy 6 in Galveston county. Thought maybe since the railroad parralels it it was picking it up but I dont know.
The tremors under (the name we dare not spell or say) are worrisome.
Clicking heels together, closing eyes...
there's no place like home...there's no place like home...)
It's a real Oz-like day today, isn't it?!
Tuff stuff.
More reason to think globally, not nationally.
Back to Einstein.
What happens on one part of the planet affects the entire planet.
Additional remark on the place name sign of Raunheim this morning: Thank you, Eijafjallajökull. Raunheim is adjacent to Frankfurt Airport and very affected by the noise of the airplanes, normally.
On the other side: A lot of people are employed at the Airport.
Just a short visit. Have a nice day, Barbara.
http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2010/04/changes_in_the_eruption_at_eyj.php
anybody been able to access the webcam for the iceland volcano? i can't get it to load.
Most of Europe is watching it! Too many viewers trying to see if they can get home. LOL
This doesn't even cover the station location changes in latitude coverage towards lower latitudes or the altitude changes towards lower altitudes.
I can understand validating satellite temps against some very well-sited surface stations. But to continue to use the network of surface stations for climate decisions when they have so many siting issues, are prone to human error, and have a changing station count and location that cannot be accounted for is silly.
They were never intended to be used for this. They were mostly for aviation and other means of moving goods and people, with the temperature being one of the least important measurements in the suite of data (in a great percentage of places, anyway), thus, no one cared if the temp data was rotten...even if it was obvious.
Good morning, I am having the same problem now when I try to access the web-cam, I am getting the "server not found message"!
From what I saw about an hour ago, the eruption is continuing, but at a reduced rate, for the time being. If this trend continues, hopefully in the next few days, flights may return to normal.
Right now, air travel is hindered in over 23 countries in Europe into Asia, amazing what one little volcano in Iceland has done!
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