Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Gulf of Mexico oil spill slows its advance towards the coast
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:21 AM GMT am 02. Mai 2010 +1
The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon continues to affect the Louisiana coast near the mouth of the Mississippi River, and along the Chandelier Islands off the coast of Mississippi. Strong south to southeast winds blowing at 15 - 25 knots will continue through Monday, which will push oil onto portions of the eastern Louisiana coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River northwards towards the Mississippi border. However, the current trajectory forecasts now show the advance of the oil will slow over the next few days, despite the strong onshore winds. This is probably due to the fact that the shape of the Louisiana coast is setting up a counter-clockwise rotating eddy over the ocean regions between the Mississippi coast and the mouth of the Mississippi River, as seen on the latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast.) Unfortunately, there are no buoys in this region of the Gulf to tell us what the currents are.


Figure 1. The oil spill on May 1, 2010, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra spacecraft. Image credit: NASA.

It now appears that the Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida Panhandle coasts will not see significant amounts of oil hitting their shores through at least Monday. On Monday night, the winds shift to southwesterly and weaken as a cold front approaches. The wind shift will allow oil to move eastwards towards Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but at just 1 mph or so. The winds with then shift to offshore (northwesterly) on Tuesday as the cold front passes. This should blow the oil back out to sea a few miles. It is thus possible that only the Louisiana coast will see oil impacts over the coming seven days, though there is substantial uncertainty in this forecast. High pressure is expected to build in late next week, bringing relatively light onshore winds that should allow for slow transport of the oil towards shore. It appears very unlikely that oil will make it into the Loop Current during the next seven days and affect the southern Gulf of Mexico. The long range wind forecast beyond that time is too uncertain to say what might happen at longer time ranges.


Figure 2. Previous location and forecast location for today of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration.


Figure 3. Trajectory forecast for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill for 6 pm CDT Monday May 3, 2010. Image credit: State of Louisiana.

High risk of severe weather tonight
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has outlined a "High Risk" region of severe weather potential over Arkansas tonight, and there are numerous tornadoes currently being reported over Arkansas. Our severe weather expert, Dr. Rob Carver, has radar images of yesterday's strongest storms in his blog today, including images of the tornado north of Little Rock that killed one person and injured several dozen.

Jeff Masters
Uprooted (CalicoBass)
Not sure what this thing is, it is at the old Shoffner Gin area in Shoffner. They were hit by a tornado last night. A Church was destroyed, nothing left of it. Notice the legs of this thing, just pulled them out of the ground.
Uprooted
Tornado captured in Sardis Arkansas. It was twilight when and this was shot at ISO 6400 thus it is noisy. Tornado was about 3/4 miles from us during this shot. I clicked 3 frames and we hauled booty. The tornado crossed the road at this exact place a few moments later. moved on to East End Arkansas where id did extensive damage.
Tornado
Flood damage in Hollow Rock Tennesse (Criqet)
A railroad crossing washed out from torrential rains in Carroll County Tennessee. Over 6 inches of rain logged in with my weather station KTNHOLLO! Many more photos coming.....thanks for viewing
Flood damage in Hollow Rock Tennesse
  Permalink | A A A
Reader Comments
Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted
Viewing: 751 - 801

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

751. BahaHurican 01:15 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Hmmmm.... looking at the 24/48/72 forecasts at NHC [TAFB] it seems that area of the LA/MS/AL coast won't be able to buy a break. The front basically bends around the high and just hangs up there, with winds blowing first from the SE, then the S, and eventually the SW.... Hopefully the pattern will change by the end of the week :o(
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17690
752. Patrap 01:18 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
90 and 91L were spawned before June 1 2009,with a Bad Flooding event occurring over Fla Memorial Day Weekend.

Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641
753. KoritheMan 01:18 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
If there is not an early season storm, a few bloggers will be very disappointed! I don’t see anything in the first half of May for the Atlantic basin.


If we have anything spin up in May, it will likely be something along the lines of what Tropical Depression One was last year: a relatively weak, marine interest tropical cyclone whose origins are from an upper-level trough moving off the east coast.
Member Since: März 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15475
754. BahaHurican 01:21 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
BTW, it looks like there may be more of a high pressure in place in the area to the south of Iceland this week, meaning that winds may favor transport of smoke / ash towards Canada and the US in the event of an eruption....
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17690
755. Bordonaro 01:21 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Per NWS Nashville, TN as of 8PM CDT 13.56" of rain fell, breaking ALL previous rainfall records for that reporting station.

My daughter Suzette lives 2 miles from the Nashville, TN AP. She said things in Nashville are terrible, flooding and flood damage everywhere!!

Civil Emergency Message

TNC081-031200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1157 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE HICKMAN
COUNTY MAYOR...STEVE GREGORY.

HICKMAN COUNTY IS IN A FLOOD EMERGENCY.

THERE IS NO POWER IN THE COUNTY AND RADIO COMMUNICATIONS ARE OUT.
THERE ARE THREE EMERGENCY SHELTERS AVAILABLE FOR THOSE AFFECTED
BY THE HISTORIC FLOOD. THE SHELTERS ARE BON AQUA METHODIST CHURCH...
FAIRFIELD CHURCH OF CHRIST...AND THE CENTERVILLE CHURCH OF CHRIST.

MANY ROADS ARE FLOODED WITH REPORTS OF MUD SLIDES. RESIDENTS ARE
ASKED TO CONSERVE RESOURCES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

$$

04

TNC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-055-057-059-061-
063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-
095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-
127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-155-157-
159-161-163-165-167-169-171-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-187-189-
031200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010 /1142 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE.

STATE EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ARE ADVISING THAT TRAVEL IS HAZARDOUS
ON MANY INTERSTATE AND HIGHWAYS DUE TO FLOODING IN WEST AND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

LOCAL ROAD AND STATE HIGHWAY CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY LOW-
LYING AREA. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

MOTORISTS VIOLATING ROADBLOCKS OR ROAD CLOSURES ARE SUBJECT TO
CITATION BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
756. MiamiHurricanes09 01:22 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Some good warming going on in the Western Gulf.

Due to the strong lower level ridging.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
757. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:24 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
If there is not an early season storm, a few bloggers will be very disappointed! I don’t see anything in the first half of May for the Atlantic basin.
maybe after 15th of may when epac fires atlantic follows shortly after
Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670
758. BahaHurican 01:27 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
I'm not expecting much in May either. June, we'll see about, but I'm not seeing much out of the ordinary in the 1st 1/2 of the month to make me feel we'll have more tropical wx than usual.

But as usual, we shall see....

Later, all.
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17690
759. GeoffreyWPB 01:27 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Hurricane seasons are like snowflakes, fingerprints and DNA…no two are exactly alike.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9127
760. Ossqss 01:28 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
90 and 91L were spawned before June 1 2009,with a Bad Flooding event occurring over Fla Memorial Day Weekend.



Patrap, was there not some kinda testing by the gov last year if I recall correctly on the early invests? I remember some controversy and someone wrote some emails to them and it was preliminary or something. Not disagreeing with the events at all.
Member Since: Juni 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
761. Bordonaro 01:29 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Civil Emergency Message

TNC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-055-057-059-061-
063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-
095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-
127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-155-157-
159-161-163-165-167-169-171-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-187-189-
031200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010 /1142 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE.

STATE EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ARE ADVISING THAT TRAVEL IS HAZARDOUS
ON MANY INTERSTATE AND HIGHWAYS DUE TO FLOODING IN WEST AND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

LOCAL ROAD AND STATE HIGHWAY CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY LOW-
LYING AREA. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

MOTORISTS VIOLATING ROADBLOCKS OR ROAD CLOSURES ARE SUBJECT TO
CITATION BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
762. PcolaDan 01:32 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting Ossqss:


I hear that respite thing ! We just don't know what we are really in for and it isn't gonna go away by itself :(

Volcano blog????





Sorry just saw this.

It's at the end of the articles. Each article usually starts a new blog.

Link
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
763. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 01:33 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
,
Member Since: Juli 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670
764. MiamiHurricanes09 01:39 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
765. Ossqss 01:40 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting PcolaDan:


Sorry just saw this.

It's at the end of the articles. Each article usually starts a new blog.

Link


Thank you Sir, that goes into the Fav's. Thanks for sharing :)

Here is a good one from last year if ya don't have it.

http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm
Member Since: Juni 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154
766. AllyBama 01:42 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Bordonaro,

my cousin said that the water is now at her back door..she has sent her children to my Aunt's house and she is now preparing to move furniture and get ready for incoming water..never in a million years would I have thought the water would get this high - never!
In all the years I lived in Nashville, there was never anything like this..I hope your daughter is safe and sound.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20499
767. MiamiHurricanes09 01:43 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
18z NOGAPS showing a broad area of low pressure in the EPAC 144 hours out, very cool:


Link
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
768. MiamiHurricanes09 01:45 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Well I'm out, got to wake up early tomorrow.

Good night everyone! God Bless!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
769. Stormchaser2007 01:47 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
SOI starting to take a dip.

First time since late March.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249
770. drg0dOwnCountry 01:50 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Nashville
http://www.wsmv.com/video/9624406/index.html
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1951
771. BahaHurican 01:53 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Back in for a sec to ask a quick question: my pple here are wondering if all this water in the Nashville and central TN area is likely to eventually end up in the Mississippi. My instinct is yes.
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17690
772. Bordonaro 01:53 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting AllyBama:
Bordonaro,

my cousin said that the water is now at her back door..she has sent her children to my Aunt's house and she is now preparing to move furniture and get ready for incoming water..never in a million years would I have thought the water would get this high - never!
In all the years I lived in Nashville, there was never anything like this..I hope your daughter is safe and sound.

Hope your family evacuates safely.

My daughter, her fiance and my grand son are safe and sound!

Nashville, TN has received 2 1/2 months of rain in less than 48 hrs. The Cumberland River is causing serious flooding problems near downtown. NWS Nashville, TN has shattered every single rainfall record for the city.

AMAZING!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
775. Bordonaro 01:58 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Back in for a sec to ask a quick question: my pple here are wondering if all this water in the Nashville and central TN area is likely to eventually end up in the Mississippi. My instinct is yes.Yes it eventually will flow into the Mississippi River. AMAZING FLOODING going on there.

My 27 yr old daughter and family live in Nashville, TN 2 miles from the AP. The 5 ft wide creek at the edge of her yard is now 450 ft wide, 15 feet deep, flooding is 2 feet deep at the base of their rent home.

The property was built in 1912, is sitting about 15 feet above the ground, as there is a 4 degree grade sloping down to the creek, so the house will be OK.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
776. iluvjess 01:59 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
This may have already been suggested but why can't they send a couple of bunker busters into the open well and calapse it?
777. Snowlover123 02:00 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
18z NOGAPS showing a broad area of low pressure in the EPAC 144 hours out, very cool:


Link


Probably will just die off though, like all of the other EPAC "closed low systems." Hurricane season there starts in 13 days, so it won't be terribly unusual to see one 6 days from now.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2513
779. Bordonaro 02:01 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Nashville
http://www.wsmv.com/video/9624406/index.html

Link below LIVESTREAM TV LIVE from Nashville, TN:
Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
780. JRRP 02:01 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
18z NOGAPS showing a broad area of low pressure in the EPAC 144 hours out, very cool:


Link


shear
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4316
781. Snowlover123 02:02 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting Bordonaro:
Per NWS Nashville, TN as of 8PM CDT 13.56" of rain fell, breaking ALL previous rainfall records for that reporting station.

My daughter Suzette lives 2 miles from the Nashville, TN AP. She said things in Nashville are terrible, flooding and flood damage everywhere!!

Civil Emergency Message

TNC081-031200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1157 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE HICKMAN
COUNTY MAYOR...STEVE GREGORY.

HICKMAN COUNTY IS IN A FLOOD EMERGENCY.

THERE IS NO POWER IN THE COUNTY AND RADIO COMMUNICATIONS ARE OUT.
THERE ARE THREE EMERGENCY SHELTERS AVAILABLE FOR THOSE AFFECTED
BY THE HISTORIC FLOOD. THE SHELTERS ARE BON AQUA METHODIST CHURCH...
FAIRFIELD CHURCH OF CHRIST...AND THE CENTERVILLE CHURCH OF CHRIST.

MANY ROADS ARE FLOODED WITH REPORTS OF MUD SLIDES. RESIDENTS ARE
ASKED TO CONSERVE RESOURCES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

$$

04

TNC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-055-057-059-061-
063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-
095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-
127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-155-157-
159-161-163-165-167-169-171-173-175-177-179-181-183-185-187-189-
031200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010 /1142 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE.

STATE EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ARE ADVISING THAT TRAVEL IS HAZARDOUS
ON MANY INTERSTATE AND HIGHWAYS DUE TO FLOODING IN WEST AND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

LOCAL ROAD AND STATE HIGHWAY CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY LOW-
LYING AREA. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

MOTORISTS VIOLATING ROADBLOCKS OR ROAD CLOSURES ARE SUBJECT TO
CITATION BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.


I hope that your daughter will be okay... :(
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2513
782. Patrap 02:03 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
783. Patrap 02:04 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Heavy T-storm Uptown,..some pea sized Hail Pings ..as well.

Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641
784. Bordonaro 02:05 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting Snowlover123:


I hope that your daughter will be okay... :(

My family in Nashville, TN is safe and sound.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
785. iluvjess 02:07 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Because it is under 5,000 feet of water. Even aside from the water, the pressure is so great that explosives won't even really explode.


Seems like there has to be some sort of expolsive device available that could be utilized. The pressure alone seems like it would seal the well if aided by an explosion.
786. BahaHurican 02:07 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Thanks for the quick replies, all. There are some snide remarks making the rounds here to the tune that somebody's paying either a voodooist or some govt "spooks" to influence wx patterns so that that area gets the extra rain.... [they watched some tv program about the US govt. experimenting with wx change technology].....

[rolls eyes wildly] lol
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17690
787. Patrap 02:08 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    


Welcome to the World of Deep-water Risk

According to Vetco paperwork that I've seen, the Class H riser sections have a 3.5 million pound
load-carrying capacity. That's the equivalent weight of about four fully fueled
Boeing 747s. These risers are super strong.

Still, it's not just any one single piece of riser section that does it all. These sections all get bolted
together, for 5,000 feet in this case. The riser sections all have to work together as a system. The whole string is only as strong as the weakest spot. And yes, even the strongest steel will break if you apply enough stress.

It all has to work together. You've got the riser sections, along with things called HMF flanged riser connectors. Then there are HMF riser joints; flex joints; telescopic joints; and, near the top, things called "fluid-bearing, nonintegral tensioner rings." Together, these all comprise the marine riser system.

In general, the riser components compensate for heave, surge, sway, offset and torque of the drilling vessel as the ship bounces around on the sea surface. The bottom line is to maintain a tight seal -- what's called "integrity" -- between the subsea blowout preventer stack and the surface
during drilling operations.

Down at the bottom, at the seafloor, the risers are connected to the blowout preventer by a connector device. The GE-Vetco spec is for a device that accommodates 7 million foot-pounds of bending
load capacity. That's about eight fully fueled Boeing 747s.

What's the idea? You want a secure connection between the high-pressure wellhead system and
the subsea blowout preventer stack. That's where mankind's best steel meets Mother Nature's high pressures.

High pressures? You had better believe it. And in this case, Mother Nature won. So looking forward, there's going to be a lot of forensic engineering on the well design and how things got monitored
during drilling. Transocean drilled the well, but BP designed it. So the key question is how did the down-hole pressures get away like they did?

What Happens
Now?

It's a good thing that the Deepwater Horizon didn't settle right on top of the well. At least there's room for the remotely operated vehicles to maneuver. Also, there's still a lot of riser still floating in the water column. So there's some element of integrity going down to the blowout preventer.

It's absolutely imperative to shut off that oil flow. We just have to hope and pray that the BP and Transocean people can get the blowout preventer shut off. Or that there's enough integrity to the risers somehow to get in there and control the leaks, perhaps with some sort of plug. One other idea is to lower a large "hood" over the leak and capture the oil so it can be pumped up to a storage tanker ship.

Meanwhile, the relief well has to go down -- carefully and safely. This Macondo well is history. Seal it. Mark it. Give it back to the sea. Move on. Don't tempt fate on this
one. And wow... for a relatively modest-sized deep-water discovery, this
thing sure has turned into the well from hell.


Welcome to the World of Deep-water Risk

As I've said before, this accident is Mother Nature's wake-up call to everyone. Deep-water drilling is a high-stakes game. It's not exactly a "casino," in that there's a heck of a lot of settled science,
engineering and technology involved. But we're sure finding out the hard way what all the risks are. And it's becoming more and more clear how the totality of risk is a moving target. There's geologic risk, technical risk, engineering risk, environmental risk, capital risk and market risk.


With each deep well, these risks all come together over one very tiny spot at the bottom of the ocean. So for all the oil that's out there under deep water -- and it's a lot -- the long-term calculus of risk and return is difficult to quantify.

There's more to discuss, but I'll end here today. I'll update you as things evolve. This is big news all through the offshore industry. There are HUGE environmental issues, and certainly big political repercussions. I won't go there just now. For now, I'll just send out collective best wishes to the people at Transocean, BP, the Coast Guard, Minerals Management and so many more. I'm sure they're doing their best.
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641
788. beell 02:10 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Did not spend a whole lot of time with this. The graph represents 6hr (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z) water temps reported by Buoy 42040. 64nm S of Dauphin Island, AL. This buoy is approx 32nm from the rig site at 10° true. Graph reads from left to right. Three data points circled in red for reference.

Only one buoy. Draw your own conclusions, but it seems there was quite a bit of daily variability in the temps until April 30th.

That would place this buoy pretty much in the yellow zone on this chart on 04/30:


Photobucket

Direct Link to Graph

42040 Metrological Data-prev 45 days
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12895
789. Bordonaro 02:12 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Thanks for the quick replies, all. There are some snide remarks making the rounds here to the tune that somebody's paying either a voodooist or some govt "spooks" to influence wx patterns so that that area gets the extra rain.... [they watched some tv program about the US govt. experimenting with wx change technology].....


This was an unusual weather event caused by an 100KT Jet Streak, a surge of deep tropical moisture into the MS Valley. Add a slow moving cold front and a huge Upper Level Low slowly moving to the east, you have an unfortunate flooding event!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
790. Tazmanian 02:15 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
could any one still be in that rig i wounder i dont think water can get in there i tihnk some could still be moveing a round in that rig even no its a few feet under water
Member Since: Mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111361
793. TampaSpin 02:19 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
If my understanding was correct was BP not capping off the vain with Concrete for some reason and that was what caused the Blowout. Is this correct?
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
794. TexasGulf 02:19 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
According to BP, they should have the first of the oil retrieval domes arriving on-site within 4-days.

The plan is to set the domes over the oil leaks with 5,000 foot long piping to the surface. If they create a slight suction on the piping, it will cause the oil to flow upward into the dome and rise in the piping to be contained and separated.

This has never been tried in deep water before, but has worked successfully in shallow water. The physics is the same, so it should work at least at some level. If only 50% successful, then that dome is worth it's weight in gold (submerged weight, anyway).

On the Nashville flooding... there's an old saying that "its an ill wind that blows nobody good". Well, if the Mississippi river rises a bit and has increased discharge... it may have the effect of creating stronger than normal off-shore flow, keeping the oil away from the Mississippi delta region.

We'll see. I spent part of the weekend cutting new boards for hurricane season. Hope I won't need them this year, but better safe than sorry.
Member Since: April 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 354
795. indianrivguy 02:20 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Because it is under 5,000 feet of water. Even aside from the water, the pressure is so great that explosives won't even really explode.


Explosives would work just fine at that depth, there is only 2200 psi at 5000 ft.. 44 psi per 100 feet but all they would do is open the wellhead with no way whatsoever of stopping it without drilling a relief well.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1787
796. Tazmanian 02:22 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
would a war head work?
Member Since: Mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111361
797. beell 02:22 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


thanks Beell


Sure thing, gcd!
One might jump to the conclusion that oil on the water leads to an increase in temps.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12895
799. PcolaDan 02:24 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Here's a thought! (ouch it hurt)
Millions of gallons of unexpected water rushing down the Mississippi River, hits the oil, shoves back out towards the middle of the GoM.
Naaa never mind, never happen. ;)

edit: TexasGulf, you have ESP? LOL
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
801. indianrivguy 02:25 AM GMT am 03. Mai 2010    
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Sodium and cesium are so reactive that they tear water molecules apart and will burn, and even explode underwater. I don't know much about underwater explosives, but I would assume that any would have to use a highly reactive substance such as that.

However, the pressure problem still applies. And getting enough such explosives down there to work would release tremendous amounts of hydrogen, which is a highly explosive gas (remember the Hindenburg?) The hydrogen would quickly bubble up to the surface and be a hazard in itself.

So that's why they will have to drill a companion well to draw away the oil.

Again I'm not an expert on this, so if there is an underwater explosives expert, speak up.

But I don't think explosives can provide a quick fix.


I definitely agree with this.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1787

Viewing: 751 - 801

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

New Comment
Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.
Post Your Comments
Please sign in to post comments.
Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.
About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Community Activity