Long range oil spill forecast
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.
The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.
Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.
Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.
Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 — Blog Index
Yes and I can't stress enough the fact that just because we don't have storm yet that it means the season is a bust. Everyone needs to stay prepared!
944
fxus64 klix 042043
afdlix
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
343 PM CDT Friday Jun 4 2010
Synopsis...low pressure over southern Louisiana will lift to the
northeast tonight as it fills. An upper low over southeast Texas
will slowly migrate to the east Saturday and lift out Saturday
night. This will bring showers and thunderstorms across the area
as it crosses. A weak ridge will build across the area Sunday
bringing warmer temperature to the region. The ridge will remain
in place through the week.
&&
Short term...Friday night through Sunday night. Showers and
thunderstorms will lift out of the region this evening as the
surface low lifts to the NE and fills. Tonight should be fair
through the region. An upper low over southeast Texas will move to the
east Saturday bringing more showers and thunderstorms to the
region as it crosses. Models continue to be in agreement with fair
cape and lifted indice's for convective activity. If the low slows
slightly...early daytime heating could provide a bit more
instability to generate strong thunderstorms for Saturday.
Convection is expected to taper out Saturday night. However as
the upper low ejects to the NE...a trailing trough will remain
over the area on Sunday. This will provide a focus for more
convection Sunday afternoon. This should be more garden variety
convection and fire mainly off of daytime heating. Sunday will
begin to show the heat as a weak ridge begins to bump up against
the lingering trough. Convection is expected to taper early in the
evening. Bfg
Long term...by early in the week the upper trough will erode as
an upper ridge takes over. Models are in fair agreement with this
pattern. However...beyond Tuesday model disagreement begins as the GFS
wants to bring in a slightly deeper trough further south and a bit
more to the west than other models. There were no significant
changes made to the ongoing forecast in the long range...leaving
the ridge in place over the central portions of the US and warm
humid southerly conditions over the southeast Louisiana. Any convection
that develops through the week will be off the sea breeze.
The moral of the story for next week is hot and humid.
Bfg
&&
Not really.
I'm itching to make more graphics, though! LOL
Well, as of now, there's nothing to do any on.
the low is supposed to stay over water, however the leftover energy may mix with the tropical wave and surface trof as they all will be in the Central Gulf at the same time
That is what Levi was talking about yesterday
Chalmette,Louisiana
The Surge came up in 23 Minutes to the roofline.
Yes it appears Levi was right, at least so far... given the GFS has developed this before I am definitly keeping a close eye on it.
Technically he said it is going to move over water, its not there yet. But often big bursts of convectivity in the Gulf = tropical weather. Shear is a factor, but alot depends on the track of the convection through the gulf.
Then earlier this evening I watched that line of showers move over the Gulf Stream and begin to blow up. So now I can't remember the wx terminology for storm / cloud formation due to a cooler air mass passing over warmer waters . . . orographic lift is stuck in my mind.... lol
This overnight activity is just evidence of MJO negative phase, isn't it? Nothing seems to be showing surface rotation....
Please, don't link stuff to a personal web site. We need accuracy from sourced, verified sources. Or provide the source link. Thanks!
ImpactWeather
AOI/BOC/GOM
MARK
XXN/XXW
I understand. This is where your picture came from for the blog viewing. Just saying, if it exists, provide it from its source, not a copy of such :)
http://img188.imageshack.us/img188/3268/100000000000032f0000022.png
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS COMING OUT OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
NEAR THIS REGION CROSSING THE BAHAMAS FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ALONG 28N74W 25N76W 22N78W. SCATTER WEAK SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 35 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE. MODEL DATA INDICATES DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 27N44W 30N50W
18N55W. MODERATE TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN
50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE SAME REGION AS THE CONVECTION
WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
Looking at GFS vorticity models for a minute, the 18z run shows this storm as being weak through the first 24 hours, then all of the sudden vorticity restrengthens on the opposite side of the shear near Houston at around 48hours. But given this happend sooner then expected, its probably more like 36 hours.
See:
Link
It actually does not have negative convergence, that is on the southern side in the EPAC
Hi Pat,
Just came on the blog and saw your post which touches on something I've been wondering about, and that is just how fast is the record rise in time for storm surge? Is there a top 10 list? haven't done any research on it myself yet (obviously); with your post I thought, if anyone knows...
PS - Tonight's Bill Mahr show (HBO), at the end of "New Rules" has a great, hilarious commentary on Global Warming.
BRB
The 60 knots of shear is over Mexico and moving westward
Oh, I think we all get the point, we just want to follow it to the source if necessary and validate things. You are dealing with some old folks on here, not me though :) Out>>
He told me personally yesterday, that in the next 3 days there was a possability of some tropical disturbance associated with a 1007mb dry low pressure. Vorticity showed this compact system heading across shear and becoming vertically stacked off Houston. You would have to find where he said it yesterday for more info, because I honestly forgot what else he said.
Indeed, most shear models are showing a pretty tranquil Gulf within 72 hours. In the mean time a potential storm would probably get shreaded through the shear and redevelop convection on the other side.
Viewing: 1051 - 1101
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 — Blog Index