Long range oil spill forecast
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.
The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.
Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.
Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.
Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Its another hurricane season and from what I can hear its gonna be something....
84 here in Wilmington NC but its so humid I cant stay outside for long
He appears to be gone for the moment so I'll answer before your comment disappears down the page.
It is rather hard to predict the long-term position of the TUTT. It is usually found between two areas of greater heat, and thus upper ridging, on either side of it. Sometimes if you know that a given pattern will produce a buildup of heat and upper ridging in a certain area, you can guess where the TUTT is likely to be. The TUTT will even disappear entirely for a short time on occasion.
"Also, with it's current position, wouldn't it deflect anything coming from the Atlantic out to sea?"
The TUTT is a very upper-level feature, found strongest at 250mb. As a result, it does not exert a strong steering influence on tropical systems, which are steered by the flow at the low-mid levels of the atmosphere on average. You will often see systems approach the TUTT, get sheared by it, and then pass directly underneath it, eventually popping out the other side where they usually strengthen again.
Climatology is almost the only answer of any sense to this...
Not really, I started blogging here late 2008 during Omar.
Nice picture of the TUTT 456, that's going to be a key player this year with not only tropical wave blowing up but shear on a system as well. Right now looking at the big picture, we shouldn't see a tropical storm within the next 180 hours or so. We're about to ender a downward Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) phase, and that tends to induce less moisture across the ATL.
At that rate, we shouldn't see an upward pulse of MJO until late June at the earliest, which is around the time period I suspect we'll see Alex (Caribbean is my bets) and Bonnie. Everything is setting up for an active early to mid July.
your link is rotten...
1. Red: Neutral/Weak La Niña conditions.
2. Black: Defined PDO
3. White: Atlantic Ocean Tri-pole
4. Green: Cooling Gulf of Guinea
5. Pink: Entire Atlantic Basin with above average SSTs
The TUTT more governs cyclone intensity rather than track. Troughs in the upper westerlies would deflect storms. The season why is that the TUTT rides above the subtropical ridge. it is created due to the subsidence warming in the subtropical ridge. It does extend through the atmosphere just from about 350 mb upward so it has little steering influence.
Now TUTT cells that break off can build downwards as they head SW. These cells can affect a tropical cyclone motion. A perfect example is Ernesto 2006, when a TUTT cell moving ahead of Ernesto did not clear the area in time and caused Ernesto to deflect more towards the north (since ernesto was on right side).
The general position of TUTT axis can be predicted 3 months in advance with accuracy. Why? because it has no where to go. It will be found between 80W and 40W. it can be in the position it is now August 5 2010. What we cannot predict is the relationship between it and a tropical disturbance, storm or hurricane.
Not so sure what wrong with posting a link from meted.
First, the original link goes back to the blog, and when the link is fixed it says "Page Moved".
Taking a break. It is HOT out there.
What is a piston valve?
Miami, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
94.0 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 46%
Dew Point: 70 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the SSW
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph
Pressure: 30.00 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 109 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 11 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 3000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 21 ft
Its similar to a Henway
Just that the link is corrupted and needs editing
The effects of the TUTT are bitter-sweet for TCs. TUTTs also create outflow channels and low shear for developing hurricanes. The left side is good while the right side is bad - from a TC perspective.
I tested it out and it did work the first two times. Now I'm seeing the "Page Moved" page too.
As in, broken. Just letting you know...
Nothing wrong with linking to meted.
Could be you were registered and logged in to MetEd and now not?
Ah!
(what's a Henway?)
I don't think anything is holding back. It looks like we won't get the one or two preseason/early season storms that recent years (with the exception of 09 and 04) got though.
Not much convective activity in the Atlantic right now. Is the downward MJO pulse already here? In the meantime, conditions are becoming more favorable, with the WU shear map forecasting all shear in the GOM to be in the favorable and marginal categories by 72 hours. Once the upward MJO hits later this month or early next, I think that will be the "switch".
Though, the right side can be good and provide an outflow channel as well, if the TC is not too close. However, a tropical system usually needs to be about 5 degrees of longitude farther away from the TUTT on its right side than its left side to avoid getting sheared.
in relation to where the TC is relative to the TUTT. It does not always create shear. It can cause forced accent (upper diffluence) which causes air to rise and a low pressure area to form and deepen. This occurs alot over the WPAC monsoon trough
and they might never be the same again
About 3 lbs plucked and dressed
Yup, I was signed out automatically.
Yep, plus with the oil lurking offshore (some places onshore) they should fully enjoy it while they can!
Plus last summer was pretty cool except for one week in mid june or so where we had heat indexes in the high 120's. Man that sucked haha.
Mostly Cloudy
92.3 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 67%
Dew Point: 80 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 30.02 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 111 °F
expect some HUGE storms during the PM..
so much moisture, and a SOUTH wind will push them to the north, BUT the upper level winds will push them south, so expect slow movers that continually erupt
LOL, you got me there, heheheh
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