Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 04:46 PM GMT am 08. Juli 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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Classic Cape Verde Wave......

If it can navigate the dry dust, this wave is going to be a player!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Who wants to see some cool pictures of very intense hurricanes?

Hurricane Katrina at maximum intensity:



Hurricane Rita with gusts reaching 213 mph:



Propagation of Hurricane Ike:


Yea that is very very very far from cool...cool was def the wrong word to use there.
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574. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NEAR 26.2N 98.4W 1008 MB AT
2100 UTC JUL 08 MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A REMNANT
LOW TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD FROM THE E ALONG 28N FRI THROUGH MON.


SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT THU JUL 08 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING THEN WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FRI AND THEN THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. A
THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY FRI...THROUGH THE E AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN MON.

$$
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I'm going to have nightmares now Miami. Katrina terrified me and I only got her outer bands here in Panama City.
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Who wants to see some interesting pictures of very intense hurricanes?

Hurricane Katrina at maximum intensity:



Hurricane Rita with gusts reaching 213 mph:



Propagation of Hurricane Ike:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Statement as of 05:12 PM EDT on July 08, 2010

... Record high temperature set at Savannah GA...

A record high temperature of 101 degrees was set at Savannah GA
today. This ties the old record of 101 set in 1986.




Guess even the Yankee heat waves are moving south...
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Quoting USSINS:
Here's some real info on SAL.

Firstly, let's understand what SAL is. There is "dust" and then there is "dry air." Big difference.

Secondly, SAL is N O T the be all, end all for cyclogenesis, especially since most of the dust resides in the mid-levels, considerably less at the surface where cyclogenesis occurs. Dry air would be more of an inhibiting factor at the surface than dust will be. Dust may serve to choke a growing system, but there's also been evidence presented that dust, in some situations, actually serves to promote a storm's growth.

Lastly, forget the CIMSS map for dust, unreliable. At least for me it does not accurately depict SAL. It's usually very heavily "oranged" up all the time. And, often inaccurately reflects dry air with dust. For a more accurate picture of dust, use EUMETSAT's dust product, which is "there" overhead with particularly beefed up programming to detect dust. EUMETSAT DUST PRODUCT.

I like CIMSS, use it frequently, but not for dust or SAL.


Wrong, tropical cyclogenesis occurs in both the low and mid-levels of the atmosphere, especially when we're talking about tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic. Dry air/dust in the mid-levels (around 700mb) is a big killer of developing tropical disturbances or cyclones. It doesn't have to be at the surface to do its dirty work. You need deep convection to be able to fire upwards and if there is dry air/dust in the mid-levels then downdrafts get accelerated and convection collapses.
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Quoting Levi32:


It's been a closed surface low at the surface since last night...
That area is running out of time and we will likely not see anything from it.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting stillwaiting:
where the heck is reed at???,looks like 97L soon to come as a surface feature is trying to form in the NW area of the cut off ull off nc....


It's been a closed surface low at the surface since last night...
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Here's some real info on SAL.

Firstly, let's understand what SAL is. There is "dust" and then there is "dry air." Big difference.

Secondly, SAL is N O T the be all, end all for cyclogenesis, especially since most of the dust resides in the mid-levels, considerably less at the surface where cyclogenesis occurs. Dry air would be more of an inhibiting factor at the surface than dust will be. Dust may serve to choke a growing system, but there's also been evidence presented that dust, in some situations, actually serves to promote a storm's growth.

Lastly, forget the CIMSS map for dust, unreliable. At least for me it does not accurately depict SAL. It's usually very heavily "oranged" up all the time. And, often inaccurately reflects dry air with dust. For a more accurate picture of dust, use EUMETSAT's dust product, which is "there" overhead with particularly beefed up programming to detect dust. EUMETSAT DUST PRODUCT.

I like CIMSS, use it frequently, but not for dust or SAL.
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look like the cape season is going to start just a little early this year ,which would be right on target for the number of storms forcast
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Thank you for the info.
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Check out the SAT24.com latest African Loop.. That's a pretty big one just now coming off the shoreline.. (sure wish I could figure out how to make it a link on my post..copy and paste wont make it a link)

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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good evening everyone.Ae there any other AOI we may need to watch?


Off the North Carolina Coast, two in the Caribbean, and two waves coming off Africa, one tonight into tomorrow, and one in 3-4 days.
Member Since: Juli 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706
Good evening everyone.Ae there any other AOI we may need to watch?
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 082333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 30 MILES WEST OF
MCALLEN TEXAS. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE DEPRESSION AND ITS
REMNANTS CAN BE FOUND IN ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2
AND WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 1000 PM CDT...1100 PM
EDT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: Juli 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706
where the heck is reed at???,looks like 97L soon to come as a surface feature is trying to form in the NW area of the cut off ull off nc....
Member Since: Oktober 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
KOTG - That is a little ominous looking...
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High Stakes Weather Forecasting:


Administration Letter To BP: Good Weather Window Needs New Oil Containment Decisions

July 08, 2010 1:06 PM
From Sunlen Miller


"If there’s a window, you should take it," a senior administration official said today on a decision that needs to be made in the next 24 hours involving the next step in containment of the oil leaking into the Gulf.

NOAA is reporting to the administration that there is a “good eight day window” of good weather approaching right now that will allow them the time to essentially collapse two timelines of containment into one.

The plan would remove the “top hat" and install a "sealing cap" while simultaneously installing the Helix – instead of having those two operations happen sequentially...


http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2010/07/administration-letter-to-bp-good-weather-window-nee ds-new-oil-containment-decisions-.html
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z ECMWF keeps the NAO positive and then puts it near neutral.






12Z



18Z


Here's the GFS one for other people to see as well.
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Quoting breeezee:
check out the monster wave about to come off of africa, looks good now lets see what happens when it hits the water


SAL will severely disrupt the system.
Member Since: Juli 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706
Quoting Levi32:


GFS Synoptic-Dynamic maps
Quoting xcool:
Link

MiamiHurricanes09

here
Thanks to both of you.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
check out the monster wave about to come off of africa, looks good now lets see what happens when it hits the water
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552. xcool
Link

MiamiHurricanes09

here
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
By the way, can you give me the link to that?


GFS Synoptic-Dynamic maps
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Quoting Levi32:
Very nice dual-PV maxes along the wave axis (13E). I've been impressed with its structure for a while. The wave is currently entering Nigeria.

By the way, can you give me the link to that?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
35.1N/75.0W
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Quoting Levi32:
What makes development even more possible is that large Saharan dust outbreaks such as the one we are seeing now over the eastern Atlantic are usually followed by a big tropical wave that sweeps the dust out (if it's not a pattern of chronic dust outbreaks) and brings a surge of moisture back into the Atlantic.

Sometimes the first one sacrifices itself to the dust and moistens the environment ahead of the next big one behind it. We're seeing this now with the one about to emerge as it will die to the dust, but in the process clear the way for the big one behind it that the GFS develops.

12z ECMWF keeps the NAO positive and then puts it near neutral.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:
Very nice dual-PV maxes along the wave axis (13E). I've been impressed with its structure for a while. The wave is currently entering Nigeria.

Impressive AEW there.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ughhh... Tinypic is acting up, both these are my forecasted areas for possible "mischief" between July 8, 2010 - July 15, 2010.




Man stop those tracks!! :D
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maybe it would be a good idea to take a mix of both the GFS runs

so ok we are very likely not to get 3 systems, but we could very well see 1 or maybe 2 out there

it has been said the 2nd half of July could see an upswing out by Africa so it is possible
Member Since: März 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
My prediction:

Member Since: Juli 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706
or, donated to Portlight as an auction item?
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Usually, the GFS has a better track record with CV storms rather than Caribbean grown. Nailed Bertha, Ike, ect. Done very poor however in recent years it got Bill though.
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What makes development even more possible is that large Saharan dust outbreaks such as the one we are seeing now over the eastern Atlantic are usually followed by a big tropical wave that sweeps the dust out (if it's not a pattern of chronic dust outbreaks) and brings a surge of moisture back into the Atlantic.

Sometimes the first one sacrifices itself to the dust and moistens the environment ahead of the next big one behind it. We're seeing this now with the one about to emerge as it will die to the dust, but in the process clear the way for the big one behind it that the GFS develops.

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are those shower curtain speedos going to be on ebay?
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for the record the GFS takes the 1st system out to up north after going just north of the Islands and just misses Bermuda

the 2nd system stays further south and goes into the Caribbean

3rd system is out in the CATL at the end of the run and moving NW
Member Since: März 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
464 bohonkweatherman "...BP says they will have the oil stopped by the end of this month, problem is finding anyone that will believe them."

Just from watching the early drilling progress updates, I'd always assumed that BP gave itself at least 30% extra time in case of hurricanes or other unpredictable problems. What's surprising is that BP has raised public expectations by announcing the possibility of an earlier-than-August cloture date.
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Very nice dual-PV maxes along the wave axis (13E). I've been impressed with its structure for a while. The wave is currently entering Nigeria.

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Quoting tkeith:
Thanks USSINS...My memory is about as good as IKE's eyesight :)


LMAO
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Thanks USSINS...My memory is about as good as IKE's eyesight :)
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This is the wave to watch:

The GFS has switched from developing the wave behind it that will come off in 6-8 days to developing this one first that will come off in 3 days.

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Quoting tkeith:
What happened to the GFDL? A few years ago I thought it did a decent job with early development in particular (CV storms)...


TK, my experience and limited knowledge is that the GFDL has really never been that good in the cyclo phase. But, I think it's been fairly revered with track and intensity once a storm was viable, up and running. A few years back I do remember that improvements were made for intensity guideance as well.


And, I remember Felix a few years back. It was all over the place intially in the cyclo phase.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
18z NOGAPS spits out a very nice wave at 84 hours.



Finally getting some slightly stronger model support. If the ECMWF picks up on it again we'll have to defiantly keep a close eye on it.
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529. ryang
Quoting Hurricanes101:


1st system around 30W, 2nd one just off the CV Islands; circulation is closed on both


And look at that ridge of high pressure to the north....looks like a W-WNW track to me.. JMO
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thanks for the heads up, keith...

;)
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18z NOGAPS spits out a very nice wave at 84 hours.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Hurricanes101:


1st system around 30W, 2nd one just off the CV Islands; circulation is closed on both


Ah. Interesting.

The long-range pattern certainly favors an early Cape Verde threat. I'd start looking in the EATL several weeks early this year.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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