Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 04:46 PM GMT am 08. Juli 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


1st system around 30W, 2nd one just off the CV Islands; circulation is closed on both


Ah. Interesting.

The long-range pattern certainly favors an early Cape Verde threat. I'd start looking in the EATL several weeks early this year.
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What happened to the GFDL? A few years ago I thought it did a decent job with early development in particular (CV storms)...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8912
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think they over did the GFS to the fact that it rarely develops a system.


Beginning to wonder that myself....they greatly shaved-down the convective feedback in the model to take care of the QPF errors which the GFS is known for, but they may have gone too far if it proves to not want to develop tropical cyclones in advance.
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1st system around 30W, 2nd one just off the CV Islands; circulation is closed on both
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no shower curtain cameo appearances today?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think they over did the GFS to the fact that it rarely develops a system.


agreed

the regular GFS forms the 1st system on July 14th and the 2nd one on July 17th
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
The regular GFS develops 3 CV systems in the next 2 weeks


Where? I looked earlier and I didn't see anything.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think they over did the GFS to the fact that it rarely develops a system.


Agreed.
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I think they over did the GFS to the fact that it rarely develops a system. A model that comes to mind is the UKMET.
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Quoting tkeith:
493. USSINS 5:50 PM CDT on July 08, 2010

I agree



Yup. Unfortunately, "clarity" is the one thing we haven't gotten yet. And, like we started saying here today, I'm quite suspicious of it all.
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516. xcool
i never downcaster any storms ...
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
The regular GFS develops 3 CV systems in the next 2 weeks
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Im starting to wonder how accurate the parallel GFS is too

It did not even show Alex for its entire lifetime until it got into the BOC and never showed TD 2 until way after the ECMWF did

so I would not be shocked if its "all clear" is all wrong
I've not been using the GFS for anything except for the 200mb analysis and forecasts. The only model I use now for cyclongenesis and prognostication is the ECMWF.
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MiamiHurricanes, your smaller circle is the place I'm monitoring for learning!
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Quoting IKE:


Not trying to run you off...but, it is good news. Yeah...call me a downcaster for GOM systems.


no i'm totally serious i hope your downcasting is right. it is good news and I'm STARVING!
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Quoting cloudy0day:
KoritheMan, calder & TropicalAnalystwx

Very much appreciate your responses! I usually feel quite invisible here as a newcomer.


know how you feel.
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510. IKE
Quoting truecajun:


this is good news indeed. on that post, i'm going to cook supper, and hopefully i won't be back blogging until August. y'all be good ;)


Not trying to run you off...but, it is good news. Yeah...call me a downcaster for GOM systems.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
KoritheMan, calder & TropicalAnalystwx

Very much appreciate your responses! I usually feel quite invisible here as a newcomer.
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Ughhh... Tinypic is acting up, both these are my forecasted areas for possible "mischief" between July 8, 2010 - July 15, 2010.


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Quoting IKE:
If anyone believes the parallel GFS...it says all clear in the oil-volcano area and throughout the ATL through July 24th.


Im starting to wonder how accurate the parallel GFS is too

It did not even show Alex for its entire lifetime until it got into the BOC and never showed TD 2 until way after the ECMWF did

so I would not be shocked if its "all clear" is all wrong
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506. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I remember her well. Blew down trees in my yard but thank goodness no structural damage. I had only been in my home for 7 months at the time. It was still under construction during Ivan and needed some repairs before it could be completed.


I remember her too. Impressive storm.
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Quoting IKE:
If anyone believes the parallel GFS...it says all clear in the oil-volcano area and throughout the ATL through July 24th.


this is good news indeed. on that post, i'm going to cook supper, and hopefully i won't be back blogging until August. y'all be good ;)
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Just appears as a black image of Africa to me..


Nvm for some odd reason my computer had that website blocked..
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Quoting IKE:


Three days this buzz saw started....

I remember her well. Blew down trees in my yard but thank goodness no structural damage. I had only been in my home for 7 months at the time. It was still under construction during Ivan and needed some repairs before it could be completed.
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501. IKE
If anyone believes the parallel GFS...it says all clear in the oil-volcano area and throughout the ATL through July 24th.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Just appears as a black image of Africa to me..


:\
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I hear ya. It's not easy to relinquish cynicism in times such as these, but some would go insane if they didn't.


indeed.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I hear ya. It's not easy to relinquish cynicism in times such as these, but some would go insane if they didn't.


yes. I know. i go back and forth.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whoa!



Just appears as a black image of Africa to me..
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493. USSINS 5:50 PM CDT on July 08, 2010

I agree
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495. xcool
<<< duck opps my bad
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Quoting xcool:
1969 too


July 8th 1969

0 named storms
0 hurricanes
0 major hurricanes
1st storm formed on July 27th
Season ended with 18 named storms
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Quoting tkeith:
If they kill it and cap it, even with the moratorium, it's money in the bank.



I hear ya, TK. But, several weeks back I was over on the TOD site. Unawares at the time, I made the mention of production continuing with either/both of the two RW, sort of like a question. Big mistake saying that. Man, I was handed my hat, like I'd said something about their mother. LOL. I was in no uncertain terms informed that the two RW were kill bores, and that they would not be used for production.

But, I can say in the last two or three days I've read (said on the evening news today) a couple of things that hinted or outright suggested a possible move towards production.

And, that's fine, if they can do it safely with some guarantees I guess, and some very certain concessions. I'm not sure they should be tapping a rich source (even if they cap the gusher) when there are many people and wildlife suffering without any real, concrete assurances. Certainly, BP's longevity is in everyone's best interest I suppose, but I think we need to be very, very clear as it all moves forward. Unfortunately, "clarity" is the one thing we haven't gotten yet. So, I'm still suspicious of it all.
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Quoting truecajun:


that's what i'm thinking. God's speed to them. I saw an LPB special with the head guy ON the relief well rig. He's seemed like a stand-up guy, as well as VERY determined. I'm trying to beleive in the weather break, so I can beleive in the completion of the relief well. Of course I've got my doubts, but for now I'm trying to surpress them


I hear ya. It's not easy to relinquish cynicism in times such as these, but some would go insane if they didn't.
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491. xcool
1969 too
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
490. IKE
Tropical Depression 2 Now a Rainstorm

Jul 8, 2010 5:53 PM

The poorly defined center of Tropical Depression 2 made landfall late Thursday morning over southern South Padre Island, Texas. Since landfall the system has been slowly unwinding as it moves west northwest at about 13 mph.

Tropical Depression 2 is evolving into a tropical rainstorm that will affect northeast Mexico and parts of south and southwest Texas tonight and areas further west and north tomorrow into Saturday. The main concern with this will be the potential for heavy rainfall leading to major flooding. This will occur over an area that experienced flooding rainfall last week from former hurricane Alex. Rainfall totals across this area will average 2-6 inches with some areas, especially in the higher terrain picking up 8-10 inches.

The upper level low 200 miles east southeast of Hatteras NC will probably attempt to acquire some tropical characteristics over the next 24 hours as it rotates over 82 degree water. A surface storm should form underneath this system then lift northeast tomorrow. We don't feel there is enough time for full tropical development. The whole system will be forced to lift northeast into colder water tomorrow afternoon and night.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is void of any organized tropical systems and no development is expected through at least Sunday. The combination of dry stable air and stronger than normal shear across the south central Atlantic north of 15 north and east of 75 west will prevent tropical development through the weekend and perhaps through the first half of next week.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski
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Whoa!

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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm hoping that myself, actually, or at least that no additional storms make it into the Gulf until after they've been drilled. And to be honest, I don't think this hope is baseless or unfounded -- it's quite within the realm of possibility to not see another storm in the Gulf for a month. That's not that long a period of time.

Now, after that...


that's what i'm thinking. God's speed to them. I saw an LPB special with the head guy ON the relief well rig. He's seemed like a stand-up guy, as well as VERY determined. I'm trying to beleive in the weather break, so I can beleive in the completion of the relief well. Of course I've got my doubts, but for now I'm trying to surpress them
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459 KarenRei "Anyone know how to get upper atmospheric temperatures...?

Daily Earth Temperatures from Satellites at http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/amsutemps.html
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I even went back and did 1933 for the heck of it lol

July 8th 1933

2 storms
1 hurricane
0 major hurricanes
next storm formed on July 14th
season ended with 21 storms
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Quoting truecajun:
whether BP's hopeful date of July 27th is highly unlikely or not, I'm praying for them to prove all of us doubters wrong. May they prove us wrong on this one!
I would truely love to be wrong Truecajun.
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Quoting cloudy0day:


Is the ASCAT a product that anyone can access?


yes.

Link

Link
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Quoting cloudy0day:


Is the ASCAT a product that anyone can access?


Here ya go.
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whether BP's hopeful date of July 27th is highly unlikely or not, I'm praying for them to prove all of us doubters wrong. May they prove us wrong on this one!
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Quoting USSINS:



What he said.


Starting to read "production" overtones too now. Hhhhhhmmm.
If they kill it and cap it, even with the moratorium, it's money in the bank.
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480. IKE
Parallel GFS for the next 168 hours...Link
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Quoting calder:


surface winds can be looked at using ASCAT analysis - this is a satellite product that does 2 passes a day. For mid and high level flow, the maps for different pressures indicate what different levels. Ie 500mb chart is higher than a 700mb chart.


Is the ASCAT a product that anyone can access?
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Quoting tkeith:
...me neither



What he said.


Starting to read/hear "production" overtones too now. Hhhhhhmmm.
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Quoting truecajun:
i hope this slow period lasts until August so BP can "get it done"

from a cnn article titled

"relief well drilling ahead of schedule":

"After several days of rough seas, improved weather Thursday was allowing oil skimmers to restart their cleanup efforts in the Gulf, said Allen. He added that forecasters expected good weather for the next seven to 10 days, and he hoped to make significant progress in the operation during "a weather window that we may not see again this summer."

read full artice at
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/07/ 08/gulf.oil.disaster/index.html?hpt=T2


I'm hoping that myself, actually, or at least that no additional storms make it into the Gulf until after they've been drilled. And to be honest, I don't think this hope is baseless or unfounded -- it's quite within the realm of possibility to not see another storm in the Gulf for a month. That's not that long a period of time.

Now, after that...
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
July 8th 1995

2 named storms
1 hurricane
0 major hurricanes
Next storm formed on July 12th
Season ended with 19 named storms

July 8th 1998

0 named storms
0 hurricanes
0 major hurricanes
1st storm formed on July 27th
Season ended with 14 named storms

July 9th 2004

0 named storms
0 hurricanes
0 major hurricanes
1st storm formed on July 31st
Season ended with 15 named storms

July 8th 2007

2 named storms
0 hurricanes
0 major hurricanes
Next storm formed on July 31st
Season ended with 15 named storms

July 8th 2008

2 named storms
1 hurricane
1 major hurricane
Next storm formed on July 18th
Season ended with 16 named storms
2010 IMO will be exactly the same as 2008 in terms of numbers.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.