Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 04:46 PM GMT am 08. Juli 2010 +4
Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.
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1651. Bordonaro 11:26 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Firefox 4 Beta

Downloaded it into my computer. It is even faster than Firefox 3.3.6 :o)!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1652. Marou 11:30 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
I live in guadeloupe 1 hour ago we get some rain from the tropical wave approching my area...
Member Since: Mai 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
1653. IKE 11:36 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MILES WEST OF LAREDO TEXAS. THESE ADVISORIES CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED BEFORE THIS SYSTEM REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047
1654. IKE 11:37 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Another system headed for Central America...notice a pattern here?

Central America and Mexico's year so far and extreme southern Texas...
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1655. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:38 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Come on blog, get active!!
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1656. MiamiHurricanes09 11:40 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Exactly right, near 0%. This tropical wave will be inland before tomorrow afternoon.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
1657. MiamiHurricanes09 11:40 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
When the NAO is in its negative stage, does it increase trade winds?
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1658. BahaHurican 11:42 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Hello everyone.

I have an announcement.

JFV IS WORSE THAN GLOBAL WARMING!!!!

Now, this is not because he is such a terrible troll.... no, this is because SOME PPLE IN THE BLOG CAN'T STOP TALKING ABOUT HIM!!!! What, has he got u guys hypnotized, that you have to make a full day's blog be focused on him? Most of us wouldn't even know this guy even EXISTED .... if u didn't talk about him so much!!!

I'm at the point where, not only am I minusing anybody trolling as JFV or anybody else, I'm inclined to minus all the pple simply talking about him!

Reminder: this is a blog about WEATHER, specifically tropical weather, and issues related thereto... NOT about people and personas and personalities....

EDIT:
PS. Sorry folks, it was just really annoying to come back to the blog hours later only to find that the one enduring topic of conversation was a troll....
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17682
1659. IKE 11:43 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Parallel GFS shows a system heading for the Yucatan... northern Mexico/Brownsville Texas area...long range.

That's about it through July 25th.
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1660. xcool 11:46 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
YEP 2007 SET-UP
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1661. MiamiHurricanes09 11:48 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Quoting xcool:
YEP 2007 SET-UP
There isn't any 2007 set-up. Just because the first 2 systems tracked into the Yucatan, Mexico, and Texas doesn't mean that the entire season is going to be that way. Instead of 2007 you should be looking at 2004.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
1662. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:49 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Quoting IKE:
Parallel GFS shows a system heading for the Yucatan... northern Mexico/Brownsville Texas area...long range.

That's about it through July 25th.


I wouldn't particularly believe the parallel GFS. Even though it got an upgrade, its upgrade greatly reduced the convective feedback, so now it doesn't develop much, if any, storms. It didn't develop Alex or TD #2 as far as I'm aware of.
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1663. xcool 11:49 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
MiamiHurri .come on now i was just joke.:)
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1664. IKE 11:52 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Quoting xcool:
MiamiHurri .come on now i was just joke.:)


I'm not joking...it is similar to 2007, so far.

This place is the roughest place in town sometimes...like a Tin Pan Alley RIP SRV
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1665. MiamiHurricanes09 11:52 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
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1666. MiamiHurricanes09 11:53 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Quoting IKE:


I'm not joking...it is similar to 2007, so far.

This place is the roughest place in town sometimes...like a Tin Pan Alley RIP SRV
Exactly, so far, that doesn't mean it is going to be that way the entire season.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
1667. BahaHurican 11:53 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    

Looks like this one is headed marou's and Weather456's way...

And some remarkable cold tops with the Twave heading into Central America... lucky this isn't moving Nward with time to traverse the warm waters west of JA....

Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17682
1668. plywoodstatenative 11:54 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Ike it kinda reminds me of the time of year when Mitch formed, thats the type of pattern we are in.
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1669. tkeith 11:54 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Tin Pan Alley RIP SRV

nice...
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1670. stormpetrol 11:55 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
You know really with all due respect to the NHC, I quite don't understand this 0 to near 0%, unless they think something can spring/spin up in a few hours and catch them off guard, Why not even give it at least 5% or nothing at all and just give a general flood and rain warning!
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1671. BahaHurican 11:55 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
MIAhurr... that's QuiEt, not QuitE... might want to change the blog header...
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1672. xcool 11:55 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
IKE . I guess we'll find out soon ;)
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1673. BahaHurican 11:56 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Ike it kinda reminds me of the time of year when Mitch formed, thats the type of pattern we are in.
Isn't that year one of the forecast analog years pple are using?
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1674. IKE 11:57 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Mitch....

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1675. plywoodstatenative 11:57 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
correct Baha
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1676. BahaHurican 11:58 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Hmmmm.... 93W on NRL website...

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1677. SiestaCpl 11:58 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Quoting stormpetrol:
You know really with all due respect to the NHC, I quite don't understand this 0 to near 0%, unless they think something can spring/spin up in a few hours and catch them off guard, Why not even give it at least 5% or nothing at all and just give a general flood and rain warning!


Perhaps their idea is to let all of us know that they DID look at it and that they still think it is not going to develop...it may well be a method to silence criticism that they are not looking at enough invests..this way they say "hey, we saw it..but it's a no go" or no grow...LOL
Member Since: Juni 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326
1678. MiamiHurricanes09 11:58 PM GMT am 09. Juli 2010    
Quoting BahaHurican:
MIAhurr... that's QuiEt, not QuitE... might want to change the blog header...
LOL!! I wrote it correctly on the actual blog header but wrote it wrong here. My bad.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
1679. BahaHurican 12:00 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
Quoting IKE:
Mitch....

One of the most beautiful hurricanes ever filmed.... I keep wondering what more would have happened if it had not decreased in power before making landfall....
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17682
1680. Marou 12:01 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
bye every body I leave the blog for a while I'm going to have dinner with my brother...I will go back later...and sorry for not speaking so much bcoz of my french accent, lol. But I listen carefully.
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1681. BahaHurican 12:02 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL!! I wrote it correctly on the actual blog header but wrote it wrong here. My bad.
It's ok to have it wrong on here, but the blog header has to be "correct for posterity".... lol ... now I have to go over to the blog to make sure... lol
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1682. MiamiHurricanes09 12:02 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
Quoting BahaHurican:
One of the most beautiful hurricanes ever filmed.... I keep wondering what more would have happened if it had not decreased in power before making landfall....
But that most beautiful hurricane goes to Gilbert.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
1683. MiamiHurricanes09 12:03 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's ok to have it wrong on here, but the blog header has to be "correct for posterity".... lol ... now I have to go over to the blog to make sure... lol
LOL!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
1685. stormpetrol 12:03 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
Quoting SiestaCpl:


Perhaps their idea is to let all of us know that they DID look at it and that they still think it is not going to develop...it may well be a method to silence criticism that they are not looking at enough invests..this way they say "hey, we saw it..but it's a no go" or no grow...LOL

Or if by some outside chance or phenomena they can say well we circled it anyway LMAO! oH well 6 of one, half dozen of the next.
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1686. NeverPanic 12:03 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
Been away for a few day's. No not doing crops on Farmville...lol
24HR loop EUMETSAT. The train kept a rollin all night long. But the first wave is very impressive.
EUMETSAT Air Mass
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1687. SiestaCpl 12:04 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
Quoting stormpetrol:

Or if by some outside chance or phenomena they can say well we circled it anyway LMAO! oH well 6 of one, half dozen of the next.


LOL too true...it is still a PR related office they run...
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1689. JLPR2 12:06 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
But that most beautiful hurricane goes to Gilbert.



I agree, I was actually looking for Gilbert pictures after I read that comment XD
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1691. BahaHurican 12:08 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
Quoting Marou:
bye every body I leave the blog for a while I'm going to have dinner with my brother...I will go back later...and sorry for not speaking so much bcoz of my french accent, lol. But I listen carefully.
Au revoir...
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17682
1693. CybrTeddy 12:09 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
But that most beautiful hurricane goes to Gilbert.



I disagree.. it goes to Isabel. Even better this is was when Isabel was out to sea bothering no one.. yet. The hour IIRC when this picture was taken I was in a Gas line for that storm in VA.
Member Since: Juli 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20278
1694. IKE 12:10 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
A monster back in August of 1969....winds in Panama City,FL. were gusting 40-50 mph. I can still see the winds blowing in my mind....

Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047
1695. BahaHurican 12:10 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
Quoting FLdewey:
Baha you posted this AM about "getting outside" to clear our minds... what happened to the good vibes??? ;-)
Yeah, so I was feeling pretty groovy... until I got in here and found THAT one still the topic of discussion.... [gripe, grumble]

Lucky that phase doesn't last long with me...
Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17682
1697. MiamiHurricanes09 12:11 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I disagree.. it goes to Isabel. Even better this is was when Isabel was out to sea bothering no one.. yet. The hour IIRC when this picture was taken I was in a Gas line for that storm in VA.
I really don't like the eye formation, I'm more linear towards the small, clear, or pinhole eye. To me, Gilbert is a perfect example of that, along with Wilma.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
1698. MiamiHurricanes09 12:12 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
Quoting DestinJeff:
Most beautiful system must be Invest 95L from 2010. Hands down.
LMAO!! I hope you weren't serious.
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1699. xcool 12:13 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
haha
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1700. SiestaCpl 12:13 AM GMT am 10. Juli 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO!! I hope you weren't serious.


I love that Invest..it did no harm!
Member Since: Juni 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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