Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT am 24. Juli 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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I just don't see this season being a 'dud' like some are saying.. its almost impossible for it not to be one.
Member Since: Juli 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
2280. Levi32
Quoting ElConando:


Looks like I'm gonna have a warm a toasty winter when I go back to FSU.


Yup that's what happens for you guys in the southeast during a cold PDO. Alaska is often the opposite of the SE US during the winter. We were very much warmer than normal this past winter, for example.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2279. beell
Quoting Levi32:


No not if the entire air column is warmer than normal and the top isn't any warmer relative to normal than the bottom is. Plus, the low geopotential heights already prove that the air is rising and thus there is no negative effect on the lapse rate.


Ok, thanks. Just trying to assimilate your assertion of "net upward motion" in the Atlantic when a look at the water vapor loops for the last month would seem to indicate otherwise.
There is a difference between warm (descent) and dry/warm (ascent) and moist.
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2277. Levi32
Quoting hydrus:
What exactly was it that you did not like?


He was showing some interesting stuff about the continental temperatures and how the European has the core of the warmest weather shifting north over the eastern US in August, which helps focus heat more in the tropics and get the Atlantic more active. He also showed the GFS showing changes in the upper-air pattern over the Atlantic with the TUTT weakening and shifting northeast, with more upper easterlies showing up in the MDR.

I had been posting such maps of the GFS a couple weeks ago, even emailed Joe about it, but he never responded, and then here he is showing it 2 weeks later lol.
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2276. bappit
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
big picture as of 9 12 pm edt

Great graphic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Answered my own question. GRIP mission: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/missions/grip/news/grip-preview.html
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting SouthALWX:
lol red stick ... pretty much any spinning you are seeing on WV imagery right now is an ULL ... I counted 5 influencing the basin today


Haha but they are actually neat to watch.

I looked for 5 but didn't find them all.

Ok, another dumb question, but can these form into a storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


The Japanese climate model has been seeing this coming forever now, here's the temperature forecast for Dec-Jan-Feb....I have been very impressed with how well it is sniffing out the pattern for the winter:



And the CFS was forecasting a hot winter here in Alaska and I knew that was crap....look what it has now lol. We're probably going to feel the worst of the winter here. The very worst of it.



Looks like I'm gonna have a warm a toasty winter when I go back to FSU.
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2272. Levi32
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:


the mean watch out if you live in new england i think new england will get hit by a big hurricane this year.


It's possible with all the insanely warm water off the east coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2271. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
TPPN10 PGTW 260015

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (EASTERN VIETNAM)

B. 25/2332Z

C. 13.4N

D. 109.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 28A/PBO LRG CDO/ANMTN. POSITION BASED ON
OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOP. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC
OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/2004Z 13.0N 110.2E TRMM
25/2229Z 12.9N 109.2E SSMS


GATES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Gonna be one heck of a bell this year...

What's your prediction now since I coaxed you past 14....are you at 15? If we get 15 or less I'll do anything you ask lol. I'll deserve it if I bust that badly.
lol. Still figuring on 15.2 NS...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2268. beell
no protection in a pouch from wind shear.
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2266. bappit
Is this what happened with Bonnie? From the marsupial site:

The pouch tends to protect the moist air motions inside from the generally hostile environment, such as dry air associated with the Sahara Air Layer (SAL) that flows westward from the African Sahel. Once the %u201Cjoey%u201D has attained sufficient spin within the pouch they can exist on their own and leave the mother pouch usually moving northward relative to the mother wave.

This scenario would make sense of the Atlantic Tropical Discussion comment about the wave moving on west into Cuba while the precursor of Bonnie hung back and moved north.

Edit: It would also help explain how Bonnie formed in an otherwise dry air environment. Seems that the pouch was rather small in this case.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2265. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
WTPN21 PGTW 251730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 111.7E TO 15.8N 108.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 251200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 111.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N
111.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
251210Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE SSMIS IMAGE AND OTHER RECENT MICROWAVE
PASSES INDICATE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN LOW-LEVEL BANDING OVER THE
PAST TWELVE HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST. RECENT SHIP REPORTS
NEAR THE LLCC INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AND
SURFACES PRESSURES RANGING FROM 1001 TO 1004 MB. ALTHOUGH THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE WARNING THRESHOLD OF 25 KNOTS, CONTINUED
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION COULD
STILL INHIBIT THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM CONSOLIDATING INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION
INDICATED IN BOTH MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION JUST WEST OF
THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261730Z.//
NNNN

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
With all of the planes that will be flying Aug 15 - Sep 30, hope for at least an average season in that timeframe. A G-IV, G-V, DC-8, WB-57, 2 P-3 and the Global Hawk.
Hey, that the NASA DC-8? Been on that one once...wild ride...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2263. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:
Dr. Gray says that's about when the bell rings every year...


Gonna be one heck of a bell this year...

What's your prediction now since I coaxed you past 14....are you at 15? If we get 15 or less I'll do anything you ask lol. I'll deserve it if I bust that badly.
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2262. hydrus
Quoting StormW:


That's about it...didn't like what Bastardi was pointing out on the maps.
What exactly was it that you did not like?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
2261. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
ALERT ATCF MIL 91X XXX 100725120000
2010072512
12.0 111.7
15.8 108.4
100
12.2 111.4
251730
1007251721
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 251730
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 111.7E TO 15.8N 108.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 251200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.2N 111.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 261730Z.
//
9110072406 104N1148E 15
9110072412 106N1141E 15
9110072418 108N1135E 15
9110072500 112N1129E 20
9110072506 117N1122E 20
9110072512 122N1114E 20
NNNN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2260. Levi32
Quoting beell:


Would not warmer 500mb temps reduce lapse rate?


No not if the entire air column is warmer than normal and the top isn't any warmer relative to normal than the bottom is. Plus, the low geopotential heights already prove that the air is rising and thus there is no negative effect on the lapse rate.
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Quoting Levi32:


It's nice, until August 10th hits. Be ready.
Dr. Gray says that's about when the bell rings every year...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
2258. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
big picture as of 9 12 pm edt
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2257. beell
Quoting Levi32:
One can tell that there has been net upward motion in the Atlantic so far this season by looking at height anomalies versus temperature anomalies. We all know that warmth at a given level implies higher geopotential heights, in general, and maps of those two anomalies generally mirror each other quite well and look very similar.

Atmospheric temperatures at every level have been much warmer than normal this spring and summer so far in the tropical Atlantic. Thus, we would naturally expect higher height anomalies as well, which is common around the entire equatorial region when the world is experiencing a warm year.

If we look at the 700mb level, the middle part of the troposphere, temperatures so far this July have indeed been much warmer than normal across the entire Atlantic. However, across the tropical Atlantic, especially west of 60W, height anomalies at 700mb have been normal to even below normal in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and off the SE US coast. This is only possible if air is significantly rising at that level, creating low pressure that lowers the height anomalies despite the high temperatures.

A similar pattern exists right now at the 500mb level as well in the western tropical Atlantic.

700mb temperature anomalies so far this July:



700mb Geopotential Height Anomalies so far this July:



Would not warmer 500mb temps reduce lapse rate?
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2256. breald
Quoting Levi32:


A ridge that far north allows a lot of upward motion to occur farther north over the SW Atlantic, enhancing tropical activity. This also opens up the door for storms to track farther north and threaten the United States, and the ridge keeps them from recurving and thus they are directed west right into the United States.


Thanks Levi
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2254. Levi32
Quoting breald:


Can you please explain why? Thanks


A ridge that far north allows a lot of upward motion to occur farther north over the SW Atlantic, enhancing tropical activity. This also opens up the door for storms to track farther north and threaten the United States, and the ridge keeps them from recurving and thus they are directed west right into the United States.
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2252. Levi32
One can tell that there has been net upward motion in the Atlantic so far this season by looking at height anomalies versus temperature anomalies. We all know that warmth at a given level implies higher geopotential heights, in general, and maps of those two anomalies generally mirror each other quite well and look very similar.

Atmospheric temperatures at every level have been much warmer than normal this spring and summer so far in the tropical Atlantic. Thus, we would naturally expect higher height anomalies as well, which is common around the entire equatorial region when the world is experiencing a warm year.

If we look at the 700mb level, the middle part of the troposphere, temperatures so far this July have indeed been much warmer than normal across the entire Atlantic. However, across the tropical Atlantic, especially west of 60W, height anomalies at 700mb have been normal to even below normal in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and off the SE US coast. This is only possible if air is significantly rising at that level, creating low pressure that lowers the height anomalies despite the high temperatures.

A similar pattern exists right now at the 500mb level as well in the western tropical Atlantic.

700mb temperature anomalies so far this July:



700mb Geopotential Height Anomalies so far this July:

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Quoting StormW:


Oh...I'm in bed by at least 11:00 p.m., then up at 5:00 a.m. when something is happening.


There aren't many larks around here during high Doom.
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2250. bappit
Quoting Chicklit:

A 93-year-old woman lives across the street from me. She's quite independent and gardens a lot. I just as soon put her on an airplane to her daughter's house in Colorado.
Anywhere else would stress her out too much.
My mother, 84, lives two doors down from her. She insists she won't leave. But my brother lives on the mainland so she'd probably go over there. We're on a barrier island less than 1/2 mile from the Atlantic Ocean. Nice and high, but we all know what can happen in a hurricane. Me I'll stay here with my pets and weather the storm. Downstairs, I've got quite a hefty hurricane shelter. And already have bought new blue tarps, etc., in case the roof goes.
They all think I'm crazy and nothing will ever happen.

You guys are not role models.
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2249. SLU
Coming into the season I expected a very active start ... not that it wasn't given Alex's early formation and intensity ... but a start more like 2005 did seem on the cards. However, it seems to be building up to be a season more like what we saw in 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2004 which all had very little activity in June and July and most of the activity occured in the heart of the season with virtually non-stop named storm days between August 15th to October 15th rather than a season more evenly spread out like 2008.

I suspect that when CSU updates their forecast, they will lower their overall numbers by maybe one or two tropical storms to account for the unexpected "slow start" but may very well keep their numbers for hurricanes and major hurricanes the same given the high octane fuel available for the storms to tap into. We may not get 28 named storms like in 2005 but the pattern this year could allow for very many severe hurricanes and the high landfalling probability could make it just as bad as 2005.
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Well ike once more i see the if ands buts candies and nut crowd is back lol.Ike keep calling the realistic and let the dreamers dream on aghh aerosmith. well training camp starts thursday put that chart out miami its www.nfl .com lol goodnight dream on and whodat.
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2247. bappit
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Huh.. interesting tweet from Astronaut Clay Anderson.


@mikeinyyz Most sig sight from space? Probably Hurricanes Dean and Felix...both category 5's; beautiful yet deadly.

Worth repeating.
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2245. breald
Never mind I see someone already explained.
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2243. breald
Quoting Levi32:
July UKMET 500mb forecast for August-September-October: That positive ridge anomaly sitting just north of New England is probably the worst-possible pattern for an active hurricane season directed at the United States.



Can you please explain why? Thanks
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Quoting Levi32:
July UKMET 500mb forecast for August-September-October: That positive ridge anomaly sitting just north of New England is probably the worst-possible pattern for an active hurricane season directed at the United States.

Ominous ridging over the NE. Like you said that is just a dead giveaway for an increased amount of U.S landfalls.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
My first floor is in the tree tops and there's a hill to my carport, so flooding will not be an issue. Now the roof may go because it's in the trees. We'll see. This will be my second hurricane season here but 2009 had no threats whatsoever.
Member Since: Juli 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11208
2240. Levi32
July UKMET 500mb forecast for August-September-October: That positive ridge anomaly sitting just north of New England is probably the worst-possible pattern for an active hurricane season directed at the United States.

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2239. beell
Quoting Levi32:


And there you go....1998 and 2005 both had an easterly QBO as well, so it's iffy whether there is much of a relationship during a positive AMO. It's intriguing though.


May not matter into August.
:=)
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2238. Levi32
Quoting beell:


Interesting, anyway. We certainly have not been lacking in subsidence.
Photobucket
Link


And there you go....1998 and 2005 both had an easterly QBO as well, so it's iffy whether there is much of a relationship during a positive AMO. It's intriguing though.
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, it is between 100/70 to 125/80 this afternoon. FINALLY, most of the dizziness has subsided and I can focus pretty good.


Good range!

Was just curious since on three BP meds need to monitor it doesn't get too low, especially before taking any. :)

I see you mentioned aspirin. Was going to ask if taking that or anything like warfarin.

Warfarin in not on the menu. Plavix is a brand new drug, so they have me on JPS Connection, the Tarrant County Medical program, since I am not working right now.

I checked my blood pressure, it is 142/80 and I will check it again in 45 minutes. They want my BP near 110/70 until the surgery.

At least I receiving good medical care, that costs me next to nothing, my portion of the $20,000 bill is only 600.00, which is good.

I tried SO HARD, by nagging the surgeon over and over again, over 4 days to do my surgery while I was there, they could not make any room on the schedule.
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Quoting Chicklit:
in key west there are people who are second generation conchs(thats what people born & raised here are called) they have never left for any hurricane including the labor day hurricane, but after wilma put 4 feet of tidal surge over 60% of the island alot of people changed there minds about staying , which makes my job alot easier, few people i have to go out A& rescue before/during/after the storm
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Yes, when something's brewing I get up in the middle of the night to see what's going on.
And you know I'm not alone LOL!
Member Since: Juli 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11208
2234. MrsOsa
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
Off-topic but is there anyone from the Pascagoula area? My fiance is working over there and needs to take a vehicle in to be fixed. I dread that since we do not know any reliable/honest mechanics in that area.

So, if anyone knows, please let me know, I guess mail on here?

Thanks in advance!


You have WUmail!
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2233. Levi32
Quoting ElConando:


Is there a map or chart of this because I would think parts of the N hemisphere would likely see record could while other areas might be warmer than normal or be just normal.


The Japanese climate model has been seeing this coming forever now, here's the temperature forecast for Dec-Jan-Feb....I have been very impressed with how well it is sniffing out the pattern for the winter:



And the CFS was forecasting a hot winter here in Alaska and I knew that was crap....look what it has now lol. We're probably going to feel the worst of the winter here. The very worst of it.

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2232. SLU
Quoting ElConando:


I'm wondering if it can get past all that dry air and into the W Caribbean. May have a shot if it does. But we will have to see what happens. Maybe a single surprise in the Late July/Early August lull, or just another wave waiting to fizzle.


Don't worry. It's building up and when it starts it's going to be non-stop action day after day.
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2231. palmpt
There are some funny people on this blog... the best one over the last week was someone said they needed to train a monkey to hit the refresh key... lol
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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