Earl hits Category 4; Fiona forms
Powerful Hurricane Earl, now a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, continues to lash Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands with heavy rain and high winds this afternoon. Hardest hit was Anegada in the British Virgin Islands, population of 200. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anegada at noon EDT, and the island probably saw sustained winds of 100 mph in the south eyewall of Earl. Second hardest hit was probably the island of Anguilla. Amateur weather observer Steve Donahue at anguilla-weather.com estimated gusts of 100 mph on Anguilla this morning; his anemometer broke at 88 mph. Juliana airport on neighboring St. Martin Island recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 8am EDT. Winds were below tropical storm force on Antigua, but heavy rains of 5.71" have deluged the island. Heavy rains have hit Puerto Rico, where radar-estimated rainfall amounts of up to 5" have occurred southwest of San Juan. A heavy rain band moved across the island late this morning, with a tornadic thunderstorm that prompted issuance of a tornado warning.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Figure 2. Radar image of Earl taken this afternoon from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar.
Outlook for the Caribbean islands today
Latest radar animations out of Puerto Rico show that the eye of Earl has now moved past the Virgin Islands, and winds will begin to subside on most of the islands this evening. Heavy rains will continue through Tuesday, however, bringing the risk of flash flooding and mudslides.
Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast is nearly non-existent over Earl--just 4 knots--but is expected to increase to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, tonight through Thursday afternoon, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This shear should not appreciably affect Earl between now and Thursday, since the hurricane is so large and strong. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for continued intensification. Earl should continue to intensify until reaching Category 4 or 5 strength on Tuesday, and will probably maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. The hurricane will probably undergo at least one eyewall replacement cycle during that period, which will diminish its winds by 20 - 30 mph for a day or so. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.
Figure 3. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 8am EDT Monday August 30, 2010 run of NOAA's HWRF model. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, above 64 kt) are predicted to stay off the coast, except over Nova Scotia. Tropical storm force winds (light green colors, above 34 knots) are predicted to affect virtually the entire U.S. coast from North Carolina to Maine. Winds between 58 mph - 73 mph (dark green colors) are predicted to affect North Carolina's Outer Banks, Southeast Massachusetts, and Eastern Maine. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning push Earl's projected track a little closer to the U.S. East Coast, but still keep hurricane force winds offshore. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. We now have one model predicting a U.S. landfall--the latest HWRF model predicts Earl will hit the Maine/Nova Scotia border region on Saturday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. None of the other computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina's Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. Several models now predict Earl will being tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty, and could potentially receive a direct hit. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 11% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 10% for Nantucket, 5% for Boston, and 3% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea, but it is not unusual for the models to miss the timing and intensity of these troughs significantly in 4 - 5 day forecasts.
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters.
Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last Cape Verdes-type hurricane to affect the Barbuda and the surrounding northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Hurricane Debby of 2000, which passed over the islands on August 28 as a Category 1 hurricane. Damage was less than $1 million, and no fatalities were reported. The last hurricane of any kind to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar took an unusual track, moving towards the northeast, and the storm's eyewall missed all of the islands. Omar did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.
Links to track Earl
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Visible rapid scan satellite loop
Fiona forms
Tropical Storm Fiona finally gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be given a name, but continues to struggle with dry air. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity comes and goes, and there are not many intense thunderstorms near the storm's center. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to increase to moderate, 10 - 15 knots, by Tuesday. Fiona is moving quickly to the west, at about 24 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which is moving at 15 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to Fiona, and probably arrest the storm's development. A scenario predicted by the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models is for Fiona to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy Fiona through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario, championed by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for Fiona to stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast early next week. At this point, it is difficult to choose between these two scenarios. History suggests that a storm in Fiona's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.
Danielle
Danielle is now a tropical storm, and is on its way to oblivion over the cold North Atlantic waters.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yes it will. A more interesting item would be a Mapquest map because that would track unique users. Not sure that admin would be too fond of that though, although I'm not sure why they would mind either.
First, I am about 3 pages behind in the posts so I apologize. Hurricane Bertha came by Puerto Rico the same year as Hortense. By far, Hortense was the stronger storm for most, but because of the location of my apartment facing directly north to the ocean in Old San Juan, Bertha was the much worse storm for me. I spent hours and hours mopping water that came in through the windows trying to prevent it from going into the back rooms (the rooms where I had moved all of my furniture and things). It was strenuous exercise to say the least. In terms of damage to the island and loss of life, Hortense was much worse. In terms of my personal experience, Bertha has been the worst hurricane that I have lived through. Georges didn't even top Bertha (except for the aftermath of no electricity or water).
no landfalling conus immediate inminent threat, no big forum posting jump. its still a big USA site.
Even if Earl did hit, I doubt duct tape is going to help you much. ;)
Not yet. Keep monitoring Earl's progress. Never too late to have your hurricane kit ready.
Here's my comments:
1. Congrats to StormW for being on myfox. I was on The Weather Channel once, talking about a storm like Earl passing up the Jersey Shore, as did the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944.
2. I've noticed over the last day or so that Earl has gone from the size of one lat/long box to FOUR lat/long boxes.
3. The center of the hurricane. expected to be a high-end Cat 2/low-end Cat 3 as it passes the Jersey Coast, is already halfway into my lat/long box. (I live in Seaside Heights: yes people, the home of Jersey Shore: a blessing and a curse.)
4. My thinking is on with those who say "east side of the cone, a big deal, but not the worst, but the left side would be CATASTROPHIC, New York's Katrina."
5. The 1944 Hurricane damaged/destroyed boardwalks in Jersey from Wildwood to Long Branch, all the way up the coast south to north, and was WEAKER than Earl is anticipated to be.
6. If the storm is a Cat 4, it might not wind down as fast as they think.
7. For (luckily!) the next week, my house is directly on the oceanfront, although I'd never stay or leave anything of personal value behind.
8. I am SCARED! Nothing like this has threatened here in about 75 years, roughly twice my lifetime!
I have a distinct feeling that even with the best case scenario, I am in for an eventful few days.
Good to know Portlight is watching and ready to respond where Earl might impact.
I think they get scared and don't want to be wrong so they stick to the models. Good luck to you!! Stay safe. I think SE Mass could get clocked this time...another Labor Day hurricane!!
Rather than the "weakness weakening," I would argue that Earl is being influenced by his coat tails. In other words, if you look carefully on the upper level satellite views, his exhaust is contributing to his westward cause.
Well... that was a generalization... I'm actually a big fan of ctrl+r and a little prayer for something good from the weather sages such as StormW :)
hello,
couldnt help but chuckle with you on the first sentence... this blog takes a while. been coming here since 1997 when i think the blog didnt exist, *wunderground is an awesome page* and when i did find people here, it moved so awesomely quick and different from usual chats / forum postings that i was discouraged. once i found the befabled F5 key and got in the hang of it, i found it to be most enjoyable. in fact, i gladly sacrifice fridge time in the power generator for wunderground blogging chatter.
esto gives us an idea of the number of lurkers jajaja
someone here can probably dig that up easily...
someone here can probably dig that up easily...
*Some* moistening is a reasonable expectation,but...
Question, though. Would we not be looking for surface level dry air more than mid-level dry air in this scenario? Seems that a solid-cored hurricane can insulate better at mid levels than at the surface.
In light of that, well, surface dewpoints not exactly impressing with the dryness ahead of Earl. All I could find was still above 70 F.
The bridge in your avatar- I saw it first hand a week after Hugo as part of a Red Cross aid convoy up from Savannah.
Major Hurricane Earl...
model srpead continues on the potential track of Earl...though most
are along or east of the 40n/70w benchmark. 00z ggem and 12z
European model (ecmwf) among the closer approaches...just west of the benchmark.
The 12z tropical suite of models cluster southeast of
40n/70w...but some are very close. GFS ensemble members are
genearlly over or southeast of the benchmark.
Two steering mechanisms will be an approaching northern stream trough
entering the High Plains middle week and also the strength and position
of the subtropical ridge in the western-central Atlantic. The separation
between Earl and the upstream trough may be significant...too much
separation would preclude trough from interacting and pulling Earl
closer to the coast.
Latest NHC forecast Cone centered near the benchmark...with part
of southern New England on the western end of the track Cone. It
is important to note that NHC average track errors are 200 to 300
miles at days 4 and 5...so it is too soon to determine what areas
might see direct impacts from Earl. However...Earl bears close
watching over the course of the next several days.
003730 1928N 06529W 6970 02788 9589 +145 +121 285076 078 068 003 00
thats the closest theyve been ike...
Do you have a way to get a unique visitor counter though? That's what maploco is (which is what I meant, sorry...I said mapquest.)
"Lionrock" is lurking
And I didn't know about ctrl+r! Thanks!
The mid-Atlantic ridge.
Link
18Z GFS/500mb/72hrs
Link
I mean, Fiona looks sickly while, "pre 98L" looks a lot better.
It even has WHITE convection. (For what that's worth.)
pre 98L http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg
I hope you are wrong. I am on the south coast of MA.
I was in Mt. Pleasant helping a friend after Hugo as soon as they would let us back in.
So you are in Savannah GA? Statesboro here. Mostly lurking.
NMB here, about to head to my Fantasy Football draft, Ive been desingnated the league weather man,,,, :lol
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