Hermine drenching Texas; Gaston's remains less organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:21 PM GMT am 07. September 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

Tropical Storm Hermine hit the Mexican coast 40 miles south of the Texas border at 9:30 pm EDT last night, with 60 mph sustained winds. Top winds observed in Texas from the storm were 50 mph with gusts to 59 mph at Port Isabel near the Mexican border, and winds at Brownsville hit 45 mph, gusting to 69 mph. Harlingen had the highest gust observed from Hermine, 72 mph, and local storm reports indicate that half of the city lost power and a roof caved in on an apartment complex, with no injuries. Heavy rains have fallen along a 30-mile wide stretch of the Mexican and Texas coast, with 1.41" reported thus far in Harlingen, 3.71" at Brownsville, and 2.00" at Corpus Christi. Radar estimated rainfall amounts (Figure 3) exceed four inches along most of the Lower Texas coast, with maximum amounts near eleven inches twenty miles north of Brownsville.


Figure 1. Radar image of Hermine at landfall.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hermine at 12:45pm EDT Monday September 6, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm Sunday night, and intensified into a 65 mph tropical storm in just 21 hours, an extremely fast intensification rate. It turns out that the southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. This region produced two similar rapidly intensifying storms in 2007, Humberto and Lorenzo. Since 6-hourly position records of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). The curvature and topography of the land surrounding the Bay of Campeche help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process yesterday for Hermine were the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere.


Figure 3. Morning radar-estimated rainfall for Hermine.

Forecast for Hermine
Heavy rain and isolated tornadoes will continue across southern and central Texas today and tomorrow. Hermine is expected to accelerate northward today, limiting the potential for damaging floods along its future path. The storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.

Gaston's remains less organized
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico. Morning visible satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains no longer have a well-defined surface circulation, though there is still some spin. Latest radar out of Martinique and Puerto Rico show a few heavy rain showers moving through the islands, but no organization to the showers. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. None of the computer models show Gaston redeveloping, and NHC has downgraded the odds of development to 10%. I think the odds should be higher than this, perhaps 30%. Gaston's remains will be disrupted some on Wednesday, when they will encounter the high terrain of Hispaniola.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are two tropical waves off the coast of Africa that NHC is giving a 10% chances of developing into tropical depressions by Thursday. The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development of one or more tropical waves off the coast of Africa 3 - 7 days from now. The next storm will be called Igor.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression 11E kills 44 in Guatemala
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E killed at least 44 people in Guatemala over the weekend. At least 56 are injured, and 16 missing. The heavy rains triggered fifteen landslides that hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage.


Figure 4. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Next post
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2313 - 2263

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61Blog Index

2313. JLPR2
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:

Yes, but H.Georges, was born at a very low lat and gradually was moving WNW until he reached PR & L.Antilles...
I don't know about a T.C. formed at a high lat and moved straight to the west and affect to northern Caribbean & PR


how about Hugo?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR COMMANCHE UNTIL 215AM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
And really, as far as Cape Verde recurvatures go, it's true that the vast majority of them end up missing the United States mainland. Which is a good thing.

However, we need to be wary of them potentially make it all the way to the CONUS, but also the Caribbean.

Two late-forming Cape Verde hurricanes, Joan in 1988 and Georges in 1998, ultimately struck land areas. The former actually formed in October 11, and the ridge was so strong that it moved unclimatologically westward toward the eastern Caribbean.

Joan



Georges



And here's Georges, which formed on September 15, which is normally about the time of the year when we'd expect 500 mb troughing to dominate the Atlantic.

Yet, with both of these systems, that did not happen.

Bottom line? The Cape Verde wave train still poses a very significant threat to land areas, whether the United States or otherwise. Do not drop your guard.

Yes, but H.Georges, was born at a very low lat and gradually was moving WNW until he reached PR & L.Antilles...
I don't know about a T.C. formed at a high lat and moved straight to the west and affect to northern Caribbean & PR
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NOSinger:


Orca...the main track that shows the strength...which model is that??


SHIP, LGEM, DSHP
They just updated... stand by
Only up to a 4 now... and shifted North
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cheetaking:
Man, look at the latest 850 mb vorticy map. 91L is just coming into view, and that is one intense surface low...


dang
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
Looks like that run is further south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:


Stormtop's Flush model. Excuse me while I go use it.


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2306. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting scott39:
OOOH the torture of those Damn models!! LOL
They've been g]forecasting him to do that for a while.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Man, look at the latest 850 mb vorticy map. 91L is just coming into view, and that is one intense surface low...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Hate it when the flippin' train comes through. Good wishes to all in it's reach.
A lesson taught once again. These storms affect a wide area. It is not just the center that can do damage and take lives.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2302. angiest
Looks like Hermine is cutting her ties to the gulf, but, WOW, what a flare up of convection to the SE of the center.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting btwntx08:

was not being rude just look at the name he'll develop fast


lol

With all due respect Rob (since I think you're a cool guy), the name is irrelevant. There is no inherent power in a name. The power or weakness of a given storm is purely coincidental.

Basically, just because Igor sounds menacing, doesn't mean it will be menacing. And if it is, it was purely coincidental.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NOSinger:


Orca...the main track that shows the strength...which model is that??


Stormtop's Flush model. Excuse me while I go use it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:



Very cool image....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2297. centex
History graphics from my weather station in central texas.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2296. angiest
Quoting Bordonaro:
Central TX HEADS UP please


That area also lies along the Balcones Escarpment, though IIRC it is not as pronounced a feature as further south.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2295. xcool
btwntx08 yea woof ruff
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2294. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
anyone want a slice of pizza i'll ship it lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:
Central TX HEADS UP please
Hate it when the flippin' train comes through. Good wishes to all in it's reach.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NOSinger:


Heck....the NHC has got to be laughin over him as well....that little booger has made a lot of people crazy so far....I'm one of them....LOL


LOL

true
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING
TXC193-080415-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0027.100908T0334Z-100908T0415Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1034 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1034 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAMILTON...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HAMILTON AROUND 1045 PM CDT...
HICO AROUND 1105 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO AN INTERIOR BATHROOM...CLOSET...OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR BUILDING. COVER YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS...OR A
MATTRESS FOR PROTECTION.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 9816 3191 9820 3193 9818 3202 9801
3162 9787 3154 9806 3177 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0334Z 157DEG 33KT 3166 9801

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NOSinger:


Heck....the NHC has got to be laughin over him as well....that little booger has made a lot of people crazy so far....I'm one of them....LOL
Your not the only one.I've gotten quite frustrated with him...,and I bet when Igor steal's the show then he will try to develope.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2288. angiest
Quoting cheetaking:

Ike had a pressure of 935 mb, Gustav only got down to 941. So Ike was technically stronger even though Gustav had higher winds.


At that point you have to define strongest. :) I, personally, tend to refer to winds as strength and pressure as intensity.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2287. scott39
Quoting Orcasystems:


Not so fast Grasshopper

OOOH the torture of those Damn models!! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2286. JLPR2
I will lurk but I got homework to do, so no posting while I do it. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Central TX HEADS UP please
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Not so fast Grasshopper



Orca...the main track that shows the strength...which model is that??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2283. angiest
Quoting NOSinger:


Heck....the NHC has got to be laughin over him as well....that little booger has made a lot of people crazy so far....I'm one of them....LOL


Gaston must have picked up something from TD 5.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2282. xcool
91L moved west at 14mph
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2281. angiest
Quoting will40:


yes i understand that. but at least any rivers or streams wouldnt already be up to their banks


Not necessarily depending on just where. San Antonio and Austin lie on he Balcones Escarpment, which is the dividing line between the coastal plain to the east and the Edwards Plateau to the west. I would think that much rain falling on the eastern Edwards Plateau (the region known as the Hill Country) would cause a lot more stream flooding, particularly with so little soil.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting scott39:
LOL, I dispise him too! DIE GASTON DIE!!!!!


Not so fast Grasshopper

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting centex:
Not this year but last, but short term near/nelow average which is always not good in this local. We sucked up the first 2 inches but all running off now. We will have some bad reports shortly.
Agreed. Flash flooding is a major issue in TX. The sign pic posted earlier will be out in force for the near term.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Jeez dont be so rude.

The CATL is dry as a bone, for possible Igor to survive, he would need to drag a significant amount of moisture from the Eastern ATL and push the dry air west as he protects himself, which shouldn't be that hard I think.

was not being rude just look at the name he'll develop fast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


To hell with him. I've never gotten so many forecasts wrong with a storm before as I have with Gaston. Let him die already, suffering immensely for my humiliation.

*insert maniacal laugh*


Heck....the NHC has got to be laughin over him as well....that little booger has made a lot of people crazy so far....I'm one of them....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2276. JLPR2
Very vigorous spin with 91L

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


I thought Gustav technically was more intense, bordering on cat 5 intensity shortly before landfall in Cuba.
Your right.He was a 155mph hurricane with a record gust up to 212!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


I thought Gustav technically was more intense, bordering on cat 5 intensity shortly before landfall in Cuba.

Ike had a pressure of 935 mb, Gustav only got down to 941. So Ike was technically stronger even though Gustav had higher winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2273. angiest
Quoting KoritheMan:
And really, as far as Cape Verde recurvatures go, it's true that the vast majority of them end up missing the United States mainland. Which is a good thing.

However, we need to be wary of them potentially make it all the way to the CONUS, but also the Caribbean.

Two late-forming Cape Verde hurricanes, Joan in 1988 and Georges in 1998, ultimately struck land areas. The former actually formed in October 11, and the ridge was so strong that it moved unclimatologically westward toward the eastern Caribbean.

Joan



Georges



And here's Georges, which formed on September 15, which is normally about the time of the year when we'd expect 500 mb troughing to dominate the Atlantic.

Yet, with both of these systems, that did not happen.

Bottom line? The Cape Verde wave train still poses a very significant threat to land areas, whether the United States or otherwise. Do not drop your guard.


But but but... Cv storms don't go that far west! Really! And strong storms don't go west! Ever!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting angiest:


I thought Gustav technically was more intense, bordering on cat 5 intensity shortly before landfall in Cuba.


Wind wise, Gustav was stronger. But he had a higher central pressure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2271. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


To hell with him. I've never gotten so many forecasts wrong with a storm before as I have with Gaston. Let him die already, suffering immensely for my humiliation.

*insert maniacal laugh*
LOL, I dispise him too! DIE GASTON DIE!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2270. will40
Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, but 9" of rain in one day will cause serious flash flooding!!


yes i understand that. but at least any rivers or streams wouldnt already be up to their banks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cheetaking:

I was just listing the most intense storms of the year. And in 2008, that was Ike.
And rightly so...very bad for Galveston TX as we all saw
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


Earl did a pretty good job of defending himself from dry air. Heck, even Hermine seems to have moistened the environment in front of her.


Correct. The only reason Gaston had trouble with the dry air is because he was weak, and the required moisture was limited to a very small area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11683
2266. angiest
Quoting cheetaking:

I was just listing the most intense storms of the year. And in 2008, that was Ike.


I thought Gustav technically was more intense, bordering on cat 5 intensity shortly before landfall in Cuba.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2248. Was stationed at NAS Pensacola when Georges made landfall. Rode out the storm in a 2nd story apartment. Wild ride!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting will40:


do you know if that area has been in a drought?

Yes, but 9" of rain in one day will cause serious flash flooding!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2263. JLPR2
Quoting btwntx08:

igor is gonna make u eat ur words


Jeez dont be so rude.

The CATL is dry as a bone, for possible Igor to survive, he would need to drag a significant amount of moisture from the Eastern ATL and push the dry air west as he protects himself, which shouldn't be that hard I think.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2313 - 2263

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.