Hermine drenching Texas; Gaston's remains less organized
Tropical Storm Hermine hit the Mexican coast 40 miles south of the Texas border at 9:30 pm EDT last night, with 60 mph sustained winds. Top winds observed in Texas from the storm were 50 mph with gusts to 59 mph at Port Isabel near the Mexican border, and winds at Brownsville hit 45 mph, gusting to 69 mph. Harlingen had the highest gust observed from Hermine, 72 mph, and local storm reports indicate that half of the city lost power and a roof caved in on an apartment complex, with no injuries. Heavy rains have fallen along a 30-mile wide stretch of the Mexican and Texas coast, with 1.41" reported thus far in Harlingen, 3.71" at Brownsville, and 2.00" at Corpus Christi. Radar estimated rainfall amounts (Figure 3) exceed four inches along most of the Lower Texas coast, with maximum amounts near eleven inches twenty miles north of Brownsville.
Figure 1. Radar image of Hermine at landfall.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hermine at 12:45pm EDT Monday September 6, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm Sunday night, and intensified into a 65 mph tropical storm in just 21 hours, an extremely fast intensification rate. It turns out that the southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. This region produced two similar rapidly intensifying storms in 2007, Humberto and Lorenzo. Since 6-hourly position records of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). The curvature and topography of the land surrounding the Bay of Campeche help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process yesterday for Hermine were the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere.
Figure 3. Morning radar-estimated rainfall for Hermine.
Forecast for Hermine
Heavy rain and isolated tornadoes will continue across southern and central Texas today and tomorrow. Hermine is expected to accelerate northward today, limiting the potential for damaging floods along its future path. The storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.
Gaston's remains less organized
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico. Morning visible satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains no longer have a well-defined surface circulation, though there is still some spin. Latest radar out of Martinique and Puerto Rico show a few heavy rain showers moving through the islands, but no organization to the showers. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. None of the computer models show Gaston redeveloping, and NHC has downgraded the odds of development to 10%. I think the odds should be higher than this, perhaps 30%. Gaston's remains will be disrupted some on Wednesday, when they will encounter the high terrain of Hispaniola.
Elsewhere in the tropics
There are two tropical waves off the coast of Africa that NHC is giving a 10% chances of developing into tropical depressions by Thursday. The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development of one or more tropical waves off the coast of Africa 3 - 7 days from now. The next storm will be called Igor.
Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression 11E kills 44 in Guatemala
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E killed at least 44 people in Guatemala over the weekend. At least 56 are injured, and 16 missing. The heavy rains triggered fifteen landslides that hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage.
Figure 4. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.
"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.
Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
Next post
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Continuous Winds TIME
(ADT) WDIR WSPD
3:50 pm WSW ( 242 deg ) 2.9 kts
3:40 pm SW ( 216 deg ) 3.1 kts
3:30 pm WSW ( 240 deg ) 4.5 kts
3:20 pm WSW ( 249 deg ) 7.2 kts
3:10 pm SSW ( 206 deg ) 8.4 kts
3:00 pm SW ( 229 deg ) 5.6 kts
DC-8 (Times in EDT) Tuesday, Sep 7 - Science Flight STX to FLL Times are tentative: 1100 - Power on 1230 - Preflight Brief at aircraft 1330 - Door Close 1400 - Take off 0000 - Land 1000 14Z Science telecon 1200 16Z Tri-Agency Forecaster telecon Wednesday, Sep 8 - Possible No Fly Day 1000 14Z...
Currently flying east of Gaston
I'm sorry, I may be jumping into this a little bit late, but there is a group of "storm chasers" that have oz beat.
They call them Hurricane Hunters.
YOU try risking your life, flying into a cat 4 or 5, just to gather info, so that others may be warned.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42060
I'll be the first one to do it. I call BS on that hard north turn.
Not gone yet but I agree with your earlier statement about the speed and lack of vertical stacking; no vort at the upper levels yet and looks to be headed for a close encounter with the mountains of Hispanola so I'm not placing any bets either way in the short-term.
That would just about do it, then.
Something to keep an eye on NW Caribbean & 91L GOM THIS WEEK
Models like turning storm near 20N/60W
Yup, I think we can really just say he's a sfc feature with some rotation, trying to get something going. But, he's in the right spot - in the Carib with this high TCHP. If he can't must muster something upwards through here, well then, he's just been all hat and no cattle! ;)
And they don't hope to see their names in the marquee lights.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ltbv3
You need to check that shear pin, dude...had an SKS that did the same thing on a public range once; shear pin wore down and the clip pretty much emptied on one good squeeze...lucky I didn't get to talk to local law enforcement...LOL
Well looks like from what I have heard and went back over this afternoon that Gustan has a shot of reachieving TS status.
That would be a "sear", a worn sear will do that...
I'm sorry man, bu8t I have to...every time I look at your avatar I think
"Batches, we don't need no steenkeen batches!"
dang hermine nice storm
12Z GFS 700mb & 500mb/06hrs
700mb
500mb
Some hints at this "leading" disturbance on the CIMSS vort charts at 700mb and 500mb.
CIMSS 500mb
CIMSS 700mb
i cant even see puerto rico there... only cuz i know the coordinates
Did he get that pressure on his storm glass full of Scotch?
- Stranger, good pic. We've all been looking up close at Gaston. Better perspective like that way out. Good job. Looks impressive there.
Center moving into the higher elevations of the Hill Country. Possibly along the Balcones Escarpment
Yep...noticed that as soon as I posted...I figured someone in here would correct me
LOL
As good as she looks 18-20 hours after landfall, I wonder if the NHC was a little low on final intensity at landfall.
They did the same thing with Earl, too.
I think there are several contemplating this...it would be interesting to see any photos of the landfall to determine if there were in fact winds >75
I do too!
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