Hermine drenching Texas; Gaston's remains less organized
Tropical Storm Hermine hit the Mexican coast 40 miles south of the Texas border at 9:30 pm EDT last night, with 60 mph sustained winds. Top winds observed in Texas from the storm were 50 mph with gusts to 59 mph at Port Isabel near the Mexican border, and winds at Brownsville hit 45 mph, gusting to 69 mph. Harlingen had the highest gust observed from Hermine, 72 mph, and local storm reports indicate that half of the city lost power and a roof caved in on an apartment complex, with no injuries. Heavy rains have fallen along a 30-mile wide stretch of the Mexican and Texas coast, with 1.41" reported thus far in Harlingen, 3.71" at Brownsville, and 2.00" at Corpus Christi. Radar estimated rainfall amounts (Figure 3) exceed four inches along most of the Lower Texas coast, with maximum amounts near eleven inches twenty miles north of Brownsville.
Figure 1. Radar image of Hermine at landfall.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hermine at 12:45pm EDT Monday September 6, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm Sunday night, and intensified into a 65 mph tropical storm in just 21 hours, an extremely fast intensification rate. It turns out that the southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. This region produced two similar rapidly intensifying storms in 2007, Humberto and Lorenzo. Since 6-hourly position records of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). The curvature and topography of the land surrounding the Bay of Campeche help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process yesterday for Hermine were the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere.
Figure 3. Morning radar-estimated rainfall for Hermine.
Forecast for Hermine
Heavy rain and isolated tornadoes will continue across southern and central Texas today and tomorrow. Hermine is expected to accelerate northward today, limiting the potential for damaging floods along its future path. The storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.
Gaston's remains less organized
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico. Morning visible satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains no longer have a well-defined surface circulation, though there is still some spin. Latest radar out of Martinique and Puerto Rico show a few heavy rain showers moving through the islands, but no organization to the showers. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. None of the computer models show Gaston redeveloping, and NHC has downgraded the odds of development to 10%. I think the odds should be higher than this, perhaps 30%. Gaston's remains will be disrupted some on Wednesday, when they will encounter the high terrain of Hispaniola.
Elsewhere in the tropics
There are two tropical waves off the coast of Africa that NHC is giving a 10% chances of developing into tropical depressions by Thursday. The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development of one or more tropical waves off the coast of Africa 3 - 7 days from now. The next storm will be called Igor.
Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression 11E kills 44 in Guatemala
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E killed at least 44 people in Guatemala over the weekend. At least 56 are injured, and 16 missing. The heavy rains triggered fifteen landslides that hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage.
Figure 4. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.
"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.
Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
Next post
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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In some places. Hermine is moving over Hill Country now. Of course "Hill" is a subjective term.
Bless your heart, it's alright. It was obvious you meant Coca-Cola soda. :)
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE BROUGHT WIND GUSTS TO 64 MPH AT SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
LOL
Hello
Lucky you,you'll be drying out soon...
The gfs thinks mr itcz will be my best friend for the next 5 days.
The hills around San Antonio are a decent size. Quite pretty there in Texas Hill Country.
Which one is the EURO models?
Just got home from work. Anyone can answer these two questions please.
1)Any reports of flooding/damage from Hermine?
2) What is Ex-Gaston's current movement? Just from a glance he looks to be moving to D.R./Haiti.
yes we have 91L for a few hrs now ATCF is down
Hey Doug, yeah I know, just calling like I see it. Classless
Thanks WPB
Let's wait
Question: Gaston, or what is left of him, is producing very strong convection, and heavy rains across Puerto Rico and other islands. In your opinion, what will the National HUrricane Center give him in terms of %?
A. Yellow - Near 0% - 20%
B. Orange - 30% - 50%
C. High - 60% - 100%
D. Tropical Depression
E. I'm not sure/I'm not doing this poll.
Question: Tropical Storm Hermine is producing strong Winds over Central Texas this afternoon. Wind gusts up to 65 mph have been reported in the area this afternoon. How strong do you think she is?
A. Tropical Depression - 30 mph - 35 mph
B. Tropical Storm - 40 mph - 70 mph
C. Hurricane - Category 1 - Category 5
D. I'm not sure/I'm not doing this poll.
Invest 91L was declared a little while ago. In your opinion, what will the NHC give it in terms of %?
A. Yellow/Orange
B. Red
C. Tropical Depression/Tropical Storm/HUrricane
D. I'm not sure/I'm not doing this poll
I have to go with "B" for Ex-Gaston, "B" for Tropical Storm Hermine, and "A" for 91L.
3. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
91L
Random question.
What are you learning in school?
lol
All Active Year
Atlantic
10L.HERMINE
09L.GASTON
East Pacific
Central Pacific
West Pacific
90W.INVEST
10W.MALOU
Indian Ocean
Southern Hemisphere
Same as you said. lol
Yes
If he was inside EARL for 7 hours YESTERDAY, then somebody was on something...
The GFS takes it into Belize as a Category 5 too...
You guys be nice if I ever accidentally embarrass myself! lol :)
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