Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico
Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken yesterday, showing Tropical Storm Matthew approaching landfall.
Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2am EDT today (Saturday, September 25) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (6Z) run of the GFDL. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. Record keeping began in 1851, but it is likely that many hurricanes stronger than Lisa were missed prior to the advent of reliable satellite coverage in 1974. Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east. Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.
Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.
I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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if it develops early, it's ganna drifting over near 90 degree waters for days.. once and if it develops a tight core over those waters.. wouldn't suprise me if we get a major out of it fairly quickly..
again this all depends on when it forms its closed circulation and where it's located..
but it's looking to me like something is trying to develop in the gulf of honduras and driving North westward towards the western carribean right now.
Good synopsis, but a bit creepy over the seasons. Lurker that I am.
Oh I forgot the NHC knows nothing
forget it folks, its going to the BOC, NHC has no clue what it is talking about
I guess everyone forgets that hook stayed for 1 ADVISORY!!! the next advisory they had it inland of mexico
Again I repeat, NHC has been nearly dead on with track
LOL!
Can someone explain to me why there is so much vorticity at 22N 28W yet nothing is on satellite?
it expects 4 tropical storms to be connected with each other and each be entered along the entire east coast of the United states? Sure..
192 HR on TwisterData
228 HR. on TwisterData
264 HR on TwisterData
18 hr. apart, by the GFS
There is quite a large, you could say monsoonal circulation in which Matthew was the center but a new one could try to develop with him starting to wither away, but the question is when and where? :\
I can't, but I can tell you that you have WUmail when you get a chance. Thanks.
all that is is convection, circulation is well to the east of that
We had someone on the other night from 2001 and 2002. I thought it was pretty awsome.
sheri
That's Lisa.
However, it is possibly for an almost monsoonal pattern to occur, but not actually a true monsoon.
He is very well respected for skill and knowledge but some dislike his attitude and presentation.
Hey Sheri! Don't see alot of the people on anymore that we started with.
Enough!
That's true.
Same search results here. Good to know. And I would rate your research skills as A1.
ABNT20 KNHC 252330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 605 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW...LOCATED INLAND
OVER GUATEMALA ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
That's just weird...
Perfect illustration why building right on the ocean is a BAD idea.
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