Caribbean disturbance 93L no threat; remembering the Edmund Fitzgerald storm
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 93L) near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands is drifting northwards. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 93L is rather limited, due in part to some surrounding dry air. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots and SSTs are very warm, 29°C, but 93L is headed into a region of very high wind shear, and does not have time to develop. None of the reliable global forecast models for predicting tropical cyclone formation (GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are developing 93L into a tropical depression over the coming week, and NHC is giving 93L a 10% chance of developing by Friday.
The GFS and NOGAPS models predict a strong tropical disturbance will form in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia 6 - 7 days from now, and move west-northwest towards Nicaragua.
Figure 1. Rainfall totals for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands from Invest 93L.
35th anniversary of the "Edmund Fitzgerald" storm
Thirty five years ago today, on November 10, 1975, one of the strongest storms in Great Lakes history sank the ore carrier Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior, with the loss of all 29 men aboard. Our Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt has a look back at this date in weather history, which also features four other remarkable record-setting storms: the 1911 Great Cold Front, the 1913 "White Hurricane", the 1940 Armistice Day Blizzard, and the 1998 Super Cyclone.
Figure 2. The S.S. Edmund Fitzgerald in calmer waters. Photo from NOAA.
I'll have a new post Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Source: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?T103151125
The California Missile thing is just a plane, reported by FOX.
As you are again. OnlY left wing LIBERALS do....JUST THE TRUTH......POOOF!
Yes, the military could have been "so quick" to dismiss the thing as an ordinary jet contrail because they wanted to cover up a conspiracy of some sort--or they could have been "so quick" to dismiss the thing as an ordinary jet contrail because it was, you know, an ordinary jet contrail.
As I've said about other things here--GW, hurricane forecasting, etc.--scientific fact always triumphs. Always.
Anyway im going to get out for a while. Be back later.
Obama's current trip abroad was centered around the G-20 summit, which was planned many, many months ago, long before Al Qaeda's latest--and, again, foiled--attempt to take over the world by sending a letter bomb.
Looks like Carmen is stopping first in the UK to have her afternoon "cuppa tea" :O) before she slams into Western Europe.
Is that a windstorm?
Calm down, Jeff
This is not the McLaughlin Group...This is a weather blog....
Oh, look at the new lil' area of convection that moved off of Venezuela.
Daren you Neapolitan :P
And we can blame this on Levi!!!
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Blog title: Caribbean disturbance 93L no threat; remembering the Edmund Fitzgerald storm
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"377 I cant believe how many sites "source" Anthony Watts. Do you even know the particular climate study where that data was used and what statistical methods were used to eliminate error?"
So because it came from Watt's site, that AUTOMATICALLY makes it wrong?
Did you read the post?
In case you didn't, a recap:
"...The error is compounded in the sense that it propagates via V2 into the GISS database, and other users of GHCN V2..."
You know, GISS. The most accurate surface temperature data base because they ESTIMATE (extrapolate) the Arctic contribution from stations 6oo miles away.
And remember, we're only about .6 degrees above "normal" (according to GISS).
So what studies are effected? Any study that uses GISS as their database.
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