The global tropical cyclone season of 2010: record inactivity
The year 2010 was one of the strangest on record globally for tropical cyclones. Each year, the globe has about 92 tropical cyclones--called hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, typhoons in the Western Pacific, and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. But in 2010, we had just 68 of these storms--the fewest since the dawn of the satellite era in 1970. The previous record slowest year was 1977, when 69 tropical cyclones occurred world-wide. Both the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific had their quietest seasons on record in 2010, the Atlantic had its 3rd busiest season since record keeping began in 1851, and the Southern Hemisphere had a below average season. As a result, the Atlantic, which ordinarily accounts for just 13% of global cyclone activity, accounted for 28% in 2010--the greatest proportion since accurate tropical cyclone records began in the 1970s. Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for 2010 was the lowest since the late 1970s (ACE is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed.)
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 2010's strongest tropical cyclone: Super Typhoon Megi at 2:25 UTC October 18, 2010. A reconnaissance aircraft measured a central pressure of 885 mb and surface winds of 190 mph in the storm, making Megi the 8th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Image credit: NASA.
A record quiet 2010 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season
The Western Pacific set records for fewest number of named storms (fifteen, previous record seventeen in 1998) and typhoons (nine, tied with the previous record of nine in 1998. Note that Tropical Storm Mindulle was upgraded to a typhoon in post-analysis after the season was over.) Reliable records began in the mid-1960s. For just the second year in history, the Atlantic had more named storms and hurricane-strength storms than the Western Pacific. The only other year this occurred was in 2005. Ordinarily, the Western Pacific has double to triple the amount of tropical cyclones of the Atlantic. One other notable feature of the 2010 season was the lack of a land-falling typhoon on the Japanese mainland. This is only the second such occurrence since 1988.
In 2010, there was only one super typhoon--a storm with at least 150 mph winds--in the Western Pacific. However, this storm, Super Typhoon Megi, was a doozy. Megi's sustained winds cranked up to a fearsome 190 mph and its central pressure bottomed out at 885 mb on October 16, making it the 8th most intense tropical cyclone in world history. Fortunately, Megi weakened significantly before hitting the Philippines as a Category 3 typhoon. Megi killed 69 people on Taiwan and in the Philippines and did $700 million in damage, and was the second deadliest and damaging typhoon of 2010. Category 3 Typhoon Fanapi was the deadliest and most damaging typhoon of 2010, doing over $1 billion in damage to Taiwan and China and killing 105.
The record quiet typhoon season in 2010 was due, in part, to the La Niña phenomena. During such events, the formation region for Western Pacific typhoons moves northwestward, closer to China. Thus, storms that form in the Western Pacific spend less time over water before they encounter land, resulting in a lesser chance to become a named storm, and less time to intensify. They also accumulate a lower ACE due to their shorter duration. Since the Western Pacific is responsible for 35% of the world's major tropical cyclones, the global ACE value is strongly tied to year-to-year variations in the El Niño/La Niña cycle.
Figure 2. Statistics for the global tropical cyclone season of 2010. The two numbers in each box represent the actual number observed in 2010, followed by the averages from the period 1983-2007 (in parentheses). Averages and records were computed using the December 23, 2008 release of NOAA's International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.
A record quiet 2010 Eastern Pacific Typhoon Season
In the Eastern Pacific, it was also a record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. In 2010, there were 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The previous record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and zero intense hurricanes. La Niña was largely responsible for the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. It is quite remarkable that both the Eastern and Western Pacific ocean basins had record quiet seasons in the same year--there is no historical precedent for such an occurrence.
Climate change and the 2008 global tropical cyclone season
We only have about 30 years of reliable global tropical cyclone data, and tropical cyclones are subject to large natural variations in numbers and intensities. Thus, it will be very difficult at present to prove that climate change is affecting global tropical cyclone activity. (This is less so in the Atlantic, where we have a longer reliable data record to work with.) A common theme of many recent publications on the future of tropical cyclones globally in a warming climate is that the total number of these storms will decrease, but the strongest storms will get stronger. For example, a 2010 review paper published in Nature Geosciences concluded: "greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2 - 11% by 2100. Existing modeling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6 - 34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modeling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre." Last year, I discussed a paper by Bender et al that concluded that the total number of Atlantic hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, but there could be an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms. The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors computed, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. A new paper just published by Murakami et. al predicts that Western Pacific tropical cyclones may decrease in number by 23% by the end of the century, primarily due to a shift in the formation location and tracks of these storms.
In light of these theoretical results, it is interesting that 2010 saw the lowest number of global tropical cyclones on record, but an average number of very strong Category 4 and 5 storms. Fully 21% of last year's tropical cyclones reached Category 4 or 5 strength, versus just 14% during the period 1983 - 2007. Most notably, in 2010 we had the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea (Category 4 Cyclone Phet in June) and the strongest tropical cyclone ever to hit Myanmar/Burma (October's Tropical Cyclone Giri, an upper end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds.) It is too early to read anything into this year's global tropical cyclone numbers, though--we need many more years of data before making any judgments on how global tropical cyclones might be responding to climate change.
Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Thursday, June 3, 2010. Record heat over southern Asia in May helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal, and the exceptionally warm SSTs helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Phet into the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone. Phet killed 44 people and did $700 million in damage to Oman.
Figure 4. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010, just prior to landfall in Myanmar/Burma. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giri killed 157 people and did $359 million in damage. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
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NOUS44 KOHX 041648
PNSOHX
TNZ005>007-023>027-042245-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1143 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011
...CLARKSVILLE NOAA WEATHER STATION DOWN...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO SITE...STATION WWH37 IN CLARKSVILLE...WILL
BE DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. PLEASE ADJUST YOUR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO TO EITHER THE NASHILLE TRANSMITTER AT 162.550 MEGAHERTZ OR
THE WAVERLY TRANSMITTER AT 162.400 MEGAHERTZ. BOTH OF THE THESE
TRANSMITTERS WILL EFFECTIVELY PROVIDE YOU WITH LIFE SAVING WEATHER
INFORMATION.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR FURTHER
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WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE..
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MDAVIS
Water Vapor Loop
Just embedded eddies I guess, but it's mean looking...
I'm honestly surprised we haven't seen them already.
I fully expect the next map (coming out Thursday) to look drastically different... and drastically more severe.
I don't think you know me as well as you think. Find an example, any example, of myself cheering any behemoth of a corporation and any disregard for the laws that protect life and welfare of people or environment.
In general, corporations serve a purpose and provide opportunity for that middle class guy to make a living, if regulated correctly and only up to a point. Teddy Roosevelt is my hero and I am the first to hope for anti-trust suits when Exxonmobil, texacoshellchevron, at&bellbellbellcingularbellbellbelltmobil come to exist. Disgusting that we have returned to the good ol days...and in the very same industries.
I thought it equally repulsive when the champions of the to too big to fail mantra were the same that bash the big corporations at every turn.
I don't know what you think, nor will I hazard a guess.
A bit worse than that. Along the coast of IwatePrefecture and northernMiyagiPrefecture, (from north to south) Otsuchi, Ofunato, Rikuzentakata, Kesennuma, and Minamisanriku were nearly totally obliterated by the tsunami generated by the magnitude9 earthquake.
(The southernmost line connects to FukushimaDaiichi. The lone red dot represents centralTokyo.)
They happen often enough that "You will experience a tsunami twice in your lifetime" has long been a folk saying amongst those who live on the Iwate and Miyagi coastline. ie No need to even make reference to the SanrikuEarthquake of 869.
Deliberate ignorance and deliberate stupidity are the main cause of this nuclear disaster; not the earthquake, not the tsunami. Heck, TEPCO executives and Japanese government officials even ignored the lessons that they should have learned in 2007 from the Niigata-Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake that took out TEPCO's Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NuclearPowerStation.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 92...
VALID 041825Z - 041930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 92 CONTINUES.
AREAS N/E OF WW 92 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW.
LEADING EDGE OF HIGH REFLECTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST-MOVING QLCS
WAS ROUGHLY BOUNDED FROM SPENCER TO SIMPSON COUNTIES IN KY AS OF
1815Z. EXTRAPOLATION OF 50-60 KT FORWARD PROPAGATION SPEED SUGGESTS
THIS QLCS WILL APPROACH THE NRN/ERN EXTENT OF WW 92 BETWEEN 20-21Z.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LINE...THE AXIS OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
/CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS AOA 60 F/ REMAINS FROM PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/WRN KY SWWD. GIVEN THE FAST PROPAGATION OF THE QLCS
INTERCEPTING THE RETURNING HIGHER-QUALITY BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE
SEVERE THREAT FARTHER TO THE N/E OF WW 92. NEVERTHELESS...50-60 KT
SWLYS AT 1 KM AGL AMIDST STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /PER AREA VAD WIND
PROFILES/ WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND TRANSIENT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
..GRAMS.. 04/04/2011
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 36828665 37788575 38738486 39098351 38988286 38628220
38178202 37298226 36958263 36598312 36518364 36478432
36538536 36568610 36688643 36828665
oh my, the irony
Current Convective Watches
Updated: Mon Apr 4 18:38:11 UTC 2011
How about you working with the insurance companies to help them deny policy holder claims after Katrina? Not really siding with the little guy, were you?
As odd as this sounds, this is one reason why I don't like southwest.
Yes, they get cheap airfare. And thats about all they get.
Inconvenient/small/congested airports, no international flights, no assigned seats.
I see Southwest as a big reason why the airlines went to the ala carte route, with fees for everything. They didn't have the foresight to pre-purchase fuel (their own fault for not doing so), so they have more overhead. With more overhead, you have to find ways to generate new revenue. If you can't raise airfare because of one stubborn airline, you turn to nickel and diming everyone to death.
Of course, now that the cat is out of the bag, the nickel and diming - and Southwest's stubborn attitude - is here to stay.
Yep.
The MDR is a bit cooler but not by a lot.
The SSTs have held up surprisingly well out there considering we're coming off a La Nina. Much better than in a certain recent season when we had the 16 named storms and two category 4 hurricanes bearing down on the Gulf Coast (they would weaken significantly before landfall, but they were still a force).
If a corporation "sides with the little guy" all the time... they go out of business. If a corporation goes against the little guy all the time, if the little guy has a voice... they go out of business.
Yep. Good ole communists...
I worked with a few dozen homeowners against ins cos. and few other cases that were business against business.
Apparently no one here knows each other as well as they think they do.
I haven't stopped talking about it, though some have moved on to the next big thing--Charlie Sheen, Rebecca Black, baseball season getting underway, whatever.
The fact of the matter is, what's happening at Fukushima is BAD. Four reactors--count them, four--in or near or beyond meltdown. Millions of gallons of radioactive seawater intentionally dumped into the ocean today as there's nowhere to hold it on site, and that in addition to countless gallons before it. High levels of radiation being released into the air and ground. More than 600 square kilometers of land around the plant irradiated and evacuated, with the Japanese government suggesting an additional 900 square miles outside that stay vacated, while the U.S. government "suggests" that a total of 10,000 square kilometers be off-limits for years, or decades, or centuries. Workers being exposed to radiation well beyond lethal limits. Crews receiving a year's worth of "normal" radiation in just minutes. Radiation from cesium-137 in Iitate, 40 kilometers northwest of the plant, at more than twice the levels seen near Chernobyl. Radioactive drinking water in every part of Tokyo. The fact that Chernobyl had a total of 180 metric tons of fresh and spent nuclear fuel on-site, while Fukushima has nearly ten times as much (1760 metric tons). The fact that reactor #2's fuel will remain carcinogenic and mutatagenic for a quarter of a million years. (One of the truly horrifying things about radiation: it kills with silent patience; it's in no hurry.)
So, yeah, I'm still talking about it. And I will, so long as the best they can come up with there is diapers, newspapers, and sawdust. That's what you put in a cat's litter box to absorb urine--not what the brightest nuclear minds in the world should be using to stop what will certainly go down as the worst nuclear accident ever.
At least up to now.
Sorry, I hadn't seen the revisionist version. Thanks for the update.
Some do! Just dropped in. Who's winning today's argument?
You being ornery again?
And, I simply don't care enough about your opinion to fabricate anything. Not to mention that I don't have the memory to tell lies. (See: Mark Twain).
But, hey, enough about me. You'll have to save it until Doc pens a blog about atmoaggie.
GE didn't pay any taxes in 2010 by the way which is less than you and I paid.
I'm not terribly pleased either, since I liked Continental. United was my second choice for airlines, but their service is a step down from Continental's, but definitely a step up from AA and Delta. Their networks meshed together well (United has more of a focus on East/West routes, while Continental is more North/South). I don't like how they are consistently more expensive now, and I have to connect more often to get anywhere now. (I live 20 minutes from IAH in Houston... which is Continental's HQ - I'm not used to connecting to get to ANY major airport)
That said... Continental had to find someone, or they would not have survived in the current industry environment. United was in the same boat, and it was either Continental, or US Airways... and US Airways would have faced a LOT of regulatory hurdles.
Maybe their funding was cut.
There aint nobody gonna be flying as long as these fuel prices keep going up, were on the brink of hitting $4 a gallon gas, and that is the pivitol point where people begin to shut it down and drive less, fly less, go anywhere, and BOOM, your stupid economy and everything takes a hit
Click for MCD 341 discussion
Any thoughts, severe weather gurus?
I feel your pain, 19.
Plenty cape... but no rain.
:)
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