The global tropical cyclone season of 2010: record inactivity

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:14 AM GMT am 03. April 2011

Share this Blog
9
+

The year 2010 was one of the strangest on record globally for tropical cyclones. Each year, the globe has about 92 tropical cyclones--called hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, typhoons in the Western Pacific, and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. But in 2010, we had just 68 of these storms--the fewest since the dawn of the satellite era in 1970. The previous record slowest year was 1977, when 69 tropical cyclones occurred world-wide. Both the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific had their quietest seasons on record in 2010, the Atlantic had its 3rd busiest season since record keeping began in 1851, and the Southern Hemisphere had a below average season. As a result, the Atlantic, which ordinarily accounts for just 13% of global cyclone activity, accounted for 28% in 2010--the greatest proportion since accurate tropical cyclone records began in the 1970s. Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for 2010 was the lowest since the late 1970s (ACE is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed.)


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 2010's strongest tropical cyclone: Super Typhoon Megi at 2:25 UTC October 18, 2010. A reconnaissance aircraft measured a central pressure of 885 mb and surface winds of 190 mph in the storm, making Megi the 8th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Image credit: NASA.

A record quiet 2010 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season
The Western Pacific set records for fewest number of named storms (fifteen, previous record seventeen in 1998) and typhoons (nine, tied with the previous record of nine in 1998. Note that Tropical Storm Mindulle was upgraded to a typhoon in post-analysis after the season was over.) Reliable records began in the mid-1960s. For just the second year in history, the Atlantic had more named storms and hurricane-strength storms than the Western Pacific. The only other year this occurred was in 2005. Ordinarily, the Western Pacific has double to triple the amount of tropical cyclones of the Atlantic. One other notable feature of the 2010 season was the lack of a land-falling typhoon on the Japanese mainland. This is only the second such occurrence since 1988.

In 2010, there was only one super typhoon--a storm with at least 150 mph winds--in the Western Pacific. However, this storm, Super Typhoon Megi, was a doozy. Megi's sustained winds cranked up to a fearsome 190 mph and its central pressure bottomed out at 885 mb on October 16, making it the 8th most intense tropical cyclone in world history. Fortunately, Megi weakened significantly before hitting the Philippines as a Category 3 typhoon. Megi killed 69 people on Taiwan and in the Philippines and did $700 million in damage, and was the second deadliest and damaging typhoon of 2010. Category 3 Typhoon Fanapi was the deadliest and most damaging typhoon of 2010, doing over $1 billion in damage to Taiwan and China and killing 105.

The record quiet typhoon season in 2010 was due, in part, to the La Niña phenomena. During such events, the formation region for Western Pacific typhoons moves northwestward, closer to China. Thus, storms that form in the Western Pacific spend less time over water before they encounter land, resulting in a lesser chance to become a named storm, and less time to intensify. They also accumulate a lower ACE due to their shorter duration. Since the Western Pacific is responsible for 35% of the world's major tropical cyclones, the global ACE value is strongly tied to year-to-year variations in the El Niño/La Niña cycle.


Figure 2.
Statistics for the global tropical cyclone season of 2010. The two numbers in each box represent the actual number observed in 2010, followed by the averages from the period 1983-2007 (in parentheses). Averages and records were computed using the December 23, 2008 release of NOAA's International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.

A record quiet 2010 Eastern Pacific Typhoon Season
In the Eastern Pacific, it was also a record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. In 2010, there were 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The previous record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and zero intense hurricanes. La Niña was largely responsible for the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. It is quite remarkable that both the Eastern and Western Pacific ocean basins had record quiet seasons in the same year--there is no historical precedent for such an occurrence.

Climate change and the 2008 global tropical cyclone season
We only have about 30 years of reliable global tropical cyclone data, and tropical cyclones are subject to large natural variations in numbers and intensities. Thus, it will be very difficult at present to prove that climate change is affecting global tropical cyclone activity. (This is less so in the Atlantic, where we have a longer reliable data record to work with.) A common theme of many recent publications on the future of tropical cyclones globally in a warming climate is that the total number of these storms will decrease, but the strongest storms will get stronger. For example, a 2010 review paper published in Nature Geosciences concluded: "greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2 - 11% by 2100. Existing modeling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6 - 34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modeling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre." Last year, I discussed a paper by Bender et al that concluded that the total number of Atlantic hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, but there could be an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms. The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors computed, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. A new paper just published by Murakami et. al predicts that Western Pacific tropical cyclones may decrease in number by 23% by the end of the century, primarily due to a shift in the formation location and tracks of these storms.

In light of these theoretical results, it is interesting that 2010 saw the lowest number of global tropical cyclones on record, but an average number of very strong Category 4 and 5 storms. Fully 21% of last year's tropical cyclones reached Category 4 or 5 strength, versus just 14% during the period 1983 - 2007. Most notably, in 2010 we had the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea (Category 4 Cyclone Phet in June) and the strongest tropical cyclone ever to hit Myanmar/Burma (October's Tropical Cyclone Giri, an upper end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds.) It is too early to read anything into this year's global tropical cyclone numbers, though--we need many more years of data before making any judgments on how global tropical cyclones might be responding to climate change.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Thursday, June 3, 2010. Record heat over southern Asia in May helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal, and the exceptionally warm SSTs helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Phet into the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone. Phet killed 44 people and did $700 million in damage to Oman.


Figure 4. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010, just prior to landfall in Myanmar/Burma. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giri killed 157 people and did $359 million in damage. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 819 - 769

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

647
WFUS54 KJAN 042323
TORJAN
MSC031-035-073-091-050015-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0039.110404T2323Z-110405T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
623 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN FORREST COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 623 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BUNKER HILL
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
IMPROVE BY 630 PM CDT...
SUMRALL BY 645 PM CDT...
RAWLS SPRINGS BY 655 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3133 8992 3139 8993 3139 8982 3144 8982
3144 8958 3147 8958 3148 8939 3144 8939
3143 8938 3133 8936
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 268DEG 43KT 3141 8983



DHB


CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MS Page
The Nexlab AR Page
The Nexlab LA Page
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hypu-weather is pushing their gulf season forecast to far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Forgot to check to see if they launched at 18 Z.

Yep.

What cap? (okay, it's still there, albeit diminished in importance by surface temps.)


(Click for full size)

And check out the CAPE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
655
WUUS54 KLIX 042308
SVRLIX
LAC033-063-091-103-105-117-050015-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0060.110404T2308Z-110405T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
608 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...
LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COVINGTON...
TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...HAMMOND...AMITE...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 606 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF LIVINGSTON...OR
12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DENHAM SPRINGS...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.



LAT...LON 3044 8998 3028 9071 3072 9094 3084 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 249DEG 32KT 3041 9077




CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab LA Page
The Nexlab MS Page Main Text Page
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Helloooooo elloooo elloooo ellooo
lol. I totally agree. Will be back tomorrow after predictions...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Helloooooo elloooo elloooo ellooo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hellooooo.Anybody here?.Hellooooo?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:


Got the same error here on several products, atmo. Two minutes later-back to normal.

Luck of the server you hit I guess.
Webservers do have a limit to the number of simultaneous requests and I expect it's a busy day for SPC's server...

That number, of course, is configurable and probably turned up from the default for whatever software they are running (probably Apache).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
653
WFUS54 KMRX 042237
TORMRX
TNC009-107-123-042300-
/O.NEW.KMRX.TO.W.0012.110404T2237Z-110404T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
637 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BLOUNT COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
MCMINN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
MONROE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 634 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ETOWAH...OR
NEAR ATHENS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 65
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
MADISONVILLE...ENGLEWOOD...MOUNT VERNON...TELLICO PLAINS...
TARIFFVILLE...CITICO...CITICO BEACH AND TALASSEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.



LAT...LON 3545 8469 3563 8407 3546 8394 3541 8401
3537 8400 3535 8403 3529 8402 3528 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 248DEG 57KT 3540 8454




CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TN Page
The Nexlab VA Page
The Nexlab NC Page Main Text Page

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
149
WUUS54 KLIX 042236
SVRLIX
LAC005-033-047-063-121-042330-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0056.110404T2236Z-110404T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
536 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OAK HILLS PLACE...BATON ROUGE...
CENTRAL IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PLAQUEMINE...
WESTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DENHAM SPRINGS...
SOUTHEASTERN WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PORT ALLEN...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
MERGING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF PLAQUEMINE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3033 9153 3062 9089 3031 9073 3014 9144
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 250DEG 25KT 3028 9139




CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab LA Page
The Nexlab MS Page


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
803. beell
click graphic for storm reports

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16200
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
620 PM EDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM TSTM WND DMG KNOXVILLE 35.97N 83.95W
04/04/2011 KNOX TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
616 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
NORTHEASTERN KNOTT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEASTERN MARTIN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...
NORTHERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 612 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EASTERN...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF
PRESTONSBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BETSY LAYNE...JUSTELL...HAROLD AND BOLDMAN AROUND 625 PM EDT.
GULNARE...ZEBULON...MCCOMBS AND PIKEVILLE AROUND 630 PM EDT.
META...VARNEY...PISO AND JARAD AROUND 635 PM EDT.
CANADA...SIDNEY AND HEISEY AROUND 640 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 3741 8283 3759 8289 3773 8232 3770 8230
3767 8229 3766 8224 3763 8221 3764 8218
3760 8216 3759 8213 3756 8214 3755 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 254DEG 49KT 3753 8274

$$

GREIF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NWS Severe Reports last 3 Hours,


1952 5 NNW JENA LA SALLE LA 3175 9216 EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ... WITH SOME HOUSES DAMAGED. (SHV)
2007 8 ESE OLLA LA SALLE LA 3186 9211 EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ... SOME HOUSES ARE DAMAGED ... ALL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF LA SALLE PARISH. (SHV)
2054 4 N ST. JOSEPH TENSAS LA 3198 9124 *** 1 INJ *** SEVERAL HOUSES WITH ROOFS DESTROYED ... PARISH WIDE WATER SYSTEM BUILDING SEVERELY DAMAGED ... NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAYS. ONE CONFIRMED INJURY. POSS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The March JMA forecast still shows the warming backing off this fall/winter and going back to a modest La Nina into next year, which again, makes sense given that we're moving into a climatic period similar to the 1950s. The CFS, CFSv2, and ECMWF are also now all hinting at coming onboard with this idea.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
674
WFUS53 KJKL 042208
TORJKL
KYC071-119-195-042300-
/O.NEW.KJKL.TO.W.0011.110404T2208Z-110404T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
608 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
SOUTHERN KNOTT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 604 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AMBURGEY...OR NEAR HINDMAN...AND MOVING EAST
AT 55 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PUNCHEON...HALL...DRY CREEK AND KITE AROUND 615 PM EDT.
HALO...WHEELWRIGHT...GREENLEAF AND MELVIN AROUND 620 PM EDT.
MYRA...LIGON...SPEIGHT AND BUCKHORN HOLLOW AROUND 625 PM EDT.
VIRGIE...JONANCY AND DORTON AROUND 630 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE PUNCHEON...
MARROWBONE AND CEDARVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.



LAT...LON 3726 8235 3724 8241 3723 8261 3725 8264
3723 8268 3728 8274 3727 8279 3727 8283
3725 8287 3721 8292 3720 8301 3722 8305
3738 8308 3747 8231 3731 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 263DEG 50KT 3730 8294



GREIF


CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KY Page Main Text Page
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
536
WFUS54 KMRX 042209
TORMRX
TNC011-065-107-121-042245-
/O.NEW.KMRX.TO.W.0011.110404T2209Z-110404T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
609 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BRADLEY COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
HAMILTON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
MCMINN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
MEIGS COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 607 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
SODDY-DAISY...OR 14 MILES WEST OF CLEVELAND. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED
THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DECATUR...ATHENS...BIRCHWOOD...BIG SPRING...HILLSVIEW...
RICEVILLE...CLEAR WATER...NIOTA AND MURRAY STORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.



LAT...LON 3527 8525 3545 8496 3544 8494 3544 8491
3548 8491 3549 8487 3551 8486 3564 8465
3548 8446 3512 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 234DEG 53KT 3525 8508




CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TN Page
The Nexlab VA Page
The Nexlab NC Page Main Text Page
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:




SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 95
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL ALABAMA
NORTHERN GEORGIA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 455 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROME
GEORGIA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SELMA ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 91...WW 93...WW 94...

DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TRACKING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MS/AL WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR IS
PRESENT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WARM SECTOR COUPLED
WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AL PORTION OF THE WATCH THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.


...HART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RastaSteve:


The Gulf is going to be very, very warm come May. I've never seen te Gult SST's this warm in early April. It almost looks like our SST's are a month ahead of schedule.
An Arleane,or Allison scenario is possible this year.Well that's my take on it.Although CeyberTeddy think's our first storm will form in May possibly.I'm giving this a slim possibility.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
785. beell
That's all we need is for a bit of a mesolow to pop up...a bulls eye of pressure falls in central MS. Even without a low, winds will back some and increase.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0428 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...NW GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 042128Z - 042230Z

NEW TORNADO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR AN EXPANSIVE AREA FROM
SE LA NEWD INTO NW GA.

EXTENSIVE QLCS SPANS THE OH VLY TO THE WRN GULF COAST AT 21Z. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG TWO-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 4.5
MB FROM NEAR JACKSON NEWD TO BIRMINGHAM
. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND BOOST RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES

ACROSS THE ZONE LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG CAP AHEAD OF THE QLCS
WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT SUPERCELLS
WITHIN THE LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...BOWS/LEWPS WILL BRING CORRIDORS OF VERY STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

..RACY.. 04/04/2011
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16200
Maybe we'll have a storm in June and send drenching rains over TX, due to the higher than normal water temps
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
783. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

Forbidden

You don't have permission to access /climo/reports/today.html on this server.

(atmo: WTH?)


Got the same error here on several products, atmo. Two minutes later-back to normal.

Luck of the server you hit I guess.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16200
Right now it's in it's mid 80's!!!.Woot!!Also I made a hurricane forecast.Go to member blogs,and check it out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


One from da future?

504
WGUS54 KJAN 042140
FFWJAN
MSC007-019-025-087-103-105-159-042345-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FF.W.0050.110404T2140Z-110404T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
440 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ATTALA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN NOXUBEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
WINSTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LOUISVILLE...
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
LOWNDES COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COLUMBUS...
OKTIBBEHA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF STARKVILLE...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 439 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM EASTERN
ATTALA COUNTY...TO NEAR COLUMBUS. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA. ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES...HAVE OCCURRED IN
THE PAST TWO HOURS.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BENT
OAK...STEENS...WAVERLY...TIBBEE...SESSUMS...OKTOC. ..LONGVIEW...
CRAIG SPRINGS...DEERBROOK...CRAWFORD...BROOKSVILLE AND ACKERMAN

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT
TWO HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.



LAT...LON 3325 8945 3350 8884 3361 8829 3319 8848
3303 8901 3294 8944



AEG


CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MS Page
The Nexlab AR Page
The Nexlab LA Page Main Text Page
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
778. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
775, that's the back shield of the cirrus clouds in East Tx and Louisiana
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
678
WFUS54 KJAN 042127
TORJAN
MSC049-089-042215-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0035.110404T2127Z-110404T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
427 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HINDS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BYRAM...JACKSON...CLINTON...
SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RIDGELAND...MADISON...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 428 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES WEST OF
UTICA MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
NEWMAN...EDWARDS...DRY GROVE...RAYMOND...BOLTON...TERRY...
POCAHONTAS...ANNANDALE AND GLUCKSTADT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3236 9069 3236 9063 3239 9062 3257 9001
3239 9008 3230 9018 3226 9020 3220 9018
3217 9024 3206 9023 3206 9072
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 249DEG 47KT 3211 9077



JA


CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MS Page
The Nexlab AR Page
The Nexlab LA Page
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Wrong Pat, were talking about over the water of the Gulf
IMO, it looks more like dust than smoke. I don't see anything to kick up that much smoke over Mexico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah,,,Ok ..

LOL


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wrong Pat, were talking about over the water of the Gulf
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
770. Skyepony (Mod)
Looks like KS & OK are on fire too. Flood in Australia.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
769. Skyepony (Mod)
More than 80 families in Kanungu district are homeless after a recent hailstorm blew the rooftops off their houses, destroyed plantations and injured animals. The most hit areas are in the newly-created sub-county of Nyanga and Bihomborwa ward in Kihiihi town council, where the rain forced people to flee. Kihiihi sub-county chairperson Nelson Natukunda said the rain, which lasted more than five hours, left Kinyangwe Church of Uganda in Bihomborwa ward and the entire residential house of the lay leader, Bernard Nkirirehi, roofless. The rooftop was thrown about 20 metres away, said Rev. Edward Kabareebe, a witness. He said another building under construction was also brought down by the rain. "I thought the world was coming to an end, but kept on praying," Kabareebe said. Nkirirehi and his family of eight have since rented a house in a nearby trading centre.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 819 - 769

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.