The global tropical cyclone season of 2010: record inactivity
The year 2010 was one of the strangest on record globally for tropical cyclones. Each year, the globe has about 92 tropical cyclones--called hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, typhoons in the Western Pacific, and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. But in 2010, we had just 68 of these storms--the fewest since the dawn of the satellite era in 1970. The previous record slowest year was 1977, when 69 tropical cyclones occurred world-wide. Both the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific had their quietest seasons on record in 2010, the Atlantic had its 3rd busiest season since record keeping began in 1851, and the Southern Hemisphere had a below average season. As a result, the Atlantic, which ordinarily accounts for just 13% of global cyclone activity, accounted for 28% in 2010--the greatest proportion since accurate tropical cyclone records began in the 1970s. Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for 2010 was the lowest since the late 1970s (ACE is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed.)
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 2010's strongest tropical cyclone: Super Typhoon Megi at 2:25 UTC October 18, 2010. A reconnaissance aircraft measured a central pressure of 885 mb and surface winds of 190 mph in the storm, making Megi the 8th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Image credit: NASA.
A record quiet 2010 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season
The Western Pacific set records for fewest number of named storms (fifteen, previous record seventeen in 1998) and typhoons (nine, tied with the previous record of nine in 1998. Note that Tropical Storm Mindulle was upgraded to a typhoon in post-analysis after the season was over.) Reliable records began in the mid-1960s. For just the second year in history, the Atlantic had more named storms and hurricane-strength storms than the Western Pacific. The only other year this occurred was in 2005. Ordinarily, the Western Pacific has double to triple the amount of tropical cyclones of the Atlantic. One other notable feature of the 2010 season was the lack of a land-falling typhoon on the Japanese mainland. This is only the second such occurrence since 1988.
In 2010, there was only one super typhoon--a storm with at least 150 mph winds--in the Western Pacific. However, this storm, Super Typhoon Megi, was a doozy. Megi's sustained winds cranked up to a fearsome 190 mph and its central pressure bottomed out at 885 mb on October 16, making it the 8th most intense tropical cyclone in world history. Fortunately, Megi weakened significantly before hitting the Philippines as a Category 3 typhoon. Megi killed 69 people on Taiwan and in the Philippines and did $700 million in damage, and was the second deadliest and damaging typhoon of 2010. Category 3 Typhoon Fanapi was the deadliest and most damaging typhoon of 2010, doing over $1 billion in damage to Taiwan and China and killing 105.
The record quiet typhoon season in 2010 was due, in part, to the La Niña phenomena. During such events, the formation region for Western Pacific typhoons moves northwestward, closer to China. Thus, storms that form in the Western Pacific spend less time over water before they encounter land, resulting in a lesser chance to become a named storm, and less time to intensify. They also accumulate a lower ACE due to their shorter duration. Since the Western Pacific is responsible for 35% of the world's major tropical cyclones, the global ACE value is strongly tied to year-to-year variations in the El Niño/La Niña cycle.
Figure 2. Statistics for the global tropical cyclone season of 2010. The two numbers in each box represent the actual number observed in 2010, followed by the averages from the period 1983-2007 (in parentheses). Averages and records were computed using the December 23, 2008 release of NOAA's International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.
A record quiet 2010 Eastern Pacific Typhoon Season
In the Eastern Pacific, it was also a record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. In 2010, there were 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The previous record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and zero intense hurricanes. La Niña was largely responsible for the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. It is quite remarkable that both the Eastern and Western Pacific ocean basins had record quiet seasons in the same year--there is no historical precedent for such an occurrence.
Climate change and the 2008 global tropical cyclone season
We only have about 30 years of reliable global tropical cyclone data, and tropical cyclones are subject to large natural variations in numbers and intensities. Thus, it will be very difficult at present to prove that climate change is affecting global tropical cyclone activity. (This is less so in the Atlantic, where we have a longer reliable data record to work with.) A common theme of many recent publications on the future of tropical cyclones globally in a warming climate is that the total number of these storms will decrease, but the strongest storms will get stronger. For example, a 2010 review paper published in Nature Geosciences concluded: "greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2 - 11% by 2100. Existing modeling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6 - 34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modeling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre." Last year, I discussed a paper by Bender et al that concluded that the total number of Atlantic hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, but there could be an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms. The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors computed, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. A new paper just published by Murakami et. al predicts that Western Pacific tropical cyclones may decrease in number by 23% by the end of the century, primarily due to a shift in the formation location and tracks of these storms.
In light of these theoretical results, it is interesting that 2010 saw the lowest number of global tropical cyclones on record, but an average number of very strong Category 4 and 5 storms. Fully 21% of last year's tropical cyclones reached Category 4 or 5 strength, versus just 14% during the period 1983 - 2007. Most notably, in 2010 we had the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea (Category 4 Cyclone Phet in June) and the strongest tropical cyclone ever to hit Myanmar/Burma (October's Tropical Cyclone Giri, an upper end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds.) It is too early to read anything into this year's global tropical cyclone numbers, though--we need many more years of data before making any judgments on how global tropical cyclones might be responding to climate change.
Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Thursday, June 3, 2010. Record heat over southern Asia in May helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal, and the exceptionally warm SSTs helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Phet into the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone. Phet killed 44 people and did $700 million in damage to Oman.
Figure 4. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010, just prior to landfall in Myanmar/Burma. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giri killed 157 people and did $359 million in damage. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Ha Ha!!! Press is always kvetching about "the Carolinas" and now you start with "that being said." Same thing, but different. LOL.
I think it is funny.
TOTAL STORMS 17 TO 19
TOTAL HURRICANES 9 TO 11
TOTAL MAJORS 5 TO 7
TOTAL CAT 5's 2 TO 4
Well I must agree with u. I dont know about the part with 15+ storms but this could approach the record-breaking level, my prediction is 17-24 named storms, see if u agree. This should be very much like last year or 1995 in total activity, MAYBE even worse (better to me).
16-17 could be reasonable, perhaps. I'd say a bit more, but I dont wanna appear to be a doomcaster or whatever you call peoople like that so I'm not gonna get up there and say 30+ named storms or whatever some are saying.
Not as in the damage totals, as in more activity. I do NOT want any Katrina for New Orleans.
You do know, suh... that this means woah !
Depends whatcha mean by 'Yucatan', 'mountain', and 'peninsula'. If we go by your geology quotation, then exclude everything that doesn't fit...
"The peninsula is the exposed portion of the larger Yucatan Platform, all of which is composed of carbonate and soluble rocks, being mostly limestone although dolomite and evaporites are also present at various depths. The whole of the Yucatan peninsula is an unconfined flat lying karst landscape. Sinkholes, locally called cenotes are widespread in the northern lowlands."
...we're gonna be manuveuring around alotta terrain that don't exist, what with everything that ain't flat ain't bein' a part of the YucatanPeninsula.
But I think most folks here picture the northward spur of land that separates the westernCaribbean from the Bay of Campeche (southern Gulf of Mexico).
So let's draw a line from the westernmost point of the Caribbean at 15.963n88.935w to the southernmost point of Laguna de Terminos at 18.442n91.563w on the Gulf of Mexico.
Then say that everything north of that line is part of the YucatanPeninsula.
The unconnected dots represent (from north to south) Cancun, CerroBenitoJuarez, CerroElCharro, CerroChamperico, and Doyle'sDelight.
Since you challenged, I get to choose the weapons. Rapid fire coil guns launching myriads of myriads of BIG Saturnian snowballs at hundreds of billions paces. Targeting the atmosphere over the Arctic, the Antarctic, and the ThirdPole: ie the TibetanPlateau and the HimalayanRange.
(We may not be able to stop the fuss over AnthropogenicGlobalWarming, but we can sure melt the ice caps with 25thousand-plus-mph reentry heat. Then more vaporized snowballs cuz the icecaps won't supply enough water.)
Florida, Delaware, and Louisiana go underwater before Yucatan(state), then QuintanaRoo.
.. 345feet -- Florida -- Britton Hill
.. 448feet -- Delaware -- Ebright Azimuth
.. 535feet -- Louisiana -- Driskill Mountain
.. 689feet -- Yucatan -- Cerro Benito Juarez (210metres) 19.945n89.393w
.. 689feet -- Campeche -- Cero El Gavilan (210metres)
.. 755feet -- Quintana Roo -- Cerro El Charro (230metres) 18.099n88.9w
Then Mississippi, RhodeIsland, Illinois, and Indiana are flooded over before Campeche(state).
.. 806feet -- Mississippi -- Woodall Mountain
.. 812feet -- Rhode Island -- Jerrimoth Hill
.. 830feet -- Campeche -- Cerro El Doce (250metres)
1,115feet -- Campeche -- Cerro El Ramonal (340metres)
1,214feet -- Campeche -- Cerro Los Chinos (370metres)
1,235feet -- Illinois -- Charles Mound
1,257feet -- Indiana -- Hoosier Hill
1,280feet -- Campeche -- Cerro Champerico (390metres) 17.9n89.467w
Finally Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, NewJersey, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Connecticut, Alabama, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Massachusetts, NorthDakota, and SouthCarolina go under... leaving Doyle'sDelight shorter but still dry.
1,549feet -- Ohio -- Campbell Hill,
1,670feet -- Iowa -- Hawkeye Point
1,772feet -- Missouri -- Taum Sauk Mountain
1,803feet -- New Jersey -- High Point
1,951feet -- Wisconsin -- Timms Hill
1,979feet -- Michigan -- Mount Arvon
2,301feet -- Minnesota -- Eagle Mountain
2,380feet -- Connecticutt -- Mount Frissell
2,405feet -- Alabama -- Cheaha Mountain
2,753feet -- Arkansas -- Magazine Mountain
3,213feet -- Pennsylvania -- Mount Davis
3,360feet -- Maryland -- Backbone Mountain
3,487feet -- Massachusetts -- Mount Greylock
3,506feet -- North Dakota -- White Butte
3,560feet -- South Carolina -- Sassafrass Mountain
3,852feet -- Belize -- Doyle's Delight (1174metres) 16.494n89.046w
There are other peaks within the MayaMountainRange of Belize and Guatemala that are higher than the highest point in Campeche.
Note the Mounts and Mountains that go under. Unfortunately collateral damage would include SaintLucia, Trinidad&Tobago, Montserrat, NetherlandsAntilles, Grenada, the BritishVirginIslands, the USVirginIslands, SaintMartin, Antigua&Barbuda, Barbados, SaintBarthelemy, SaintPierre&Miquelon, Aruba, Bermuda, Navassa, Anguilla, the Bahamas, the Turks&Caicos, and the CaymanIslands.
What if they held a hurricane and there was no one there to attend?
sigh... So much for my flooding the world to prove a point.
Just saying, you know. LOL
I live in a hurricane prone region, and the more the merrier I always say. I don't want Katrina's, but I do so enjoy the threat of a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane.
I don't think I could live outside a hurricane prone area, to be honest.
Even I'd consider evacuating from a Category 4, and I'm 60 miles inland. lol
I do have my limits.
irregardless, it does become repeatedly repetitive.
(runs and hides, giggling)
You better run and hide after using a word like irregardless. LOL Why you little funster you!
I KNEW that would get yer goat!!! baaa-aa-aaaa!!
Agreed. I'd like some action (like what we got in S FL from Katrina), even minor damage is fine by me like brief power outages wont harm me but nothing too devastating. I dont really want something like Andrew, Wilma has an exciting-enough experience for me and even that would have to be a tad bit over the top.
Now how would you know that? (smiley face)
Everyone knows you on here LOL
See, to me that's NOT over the top. I actually have every intention of eventually chasing hurricanes when I get the equipment.
Why I most certainly do stand corrected,,and I most enjoyed the factual Geographical lesson as well.
..lets celebrate with "Mint Juleps" all around !
Sounds good to me....
Cheers!
If the Yucatan's rough southern terrain hadn't broken it, Alex woulda probably turned as nasty as the worst of Wilma (or nearly) after it reached the Bay of Campeche.
If memory servers, that was the disturbance that would not quit for a week or more. Cranking up at the shore line.
Patrap, do you remember the odd looking system the drooped over the S/SE US at about that time? It was not simultaneous, but in close prox to that system. I gotta go look.
Clickable
One of my favorite Eastwood movies (he is an Army vet) next to Unforgiven. I can relate to the song. Recon Scouts Out front.
Katrina did damage all the way to Jacksonville, MS
Recon,,
Ooh Rah
1. No death, destruction, and mayhem.
2. The trolls... I mean posters on this blog would be absolutely hilarious to watch. Just think of the freaking out that would happen! We would have to sell tickets!
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