The global tropical cyclone season of 2010: record inactivity
The year 2010 was one of the strangest on record globally for tropical cyclones. Each year, the globe has about 92 tropical cyclones--called hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, typhoons in the Western Pacific, and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. But in 2010, we had just 68 of these storms--the fewest since the dawn of the satellite era in 1970. The previous record slowest year was 1977, when 69 tropical cyclones occurred world-wide. Both the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific had their quietest seasons on record in 2010, the Atlantic had its 3rd busiest season since record keeping began in 1851, and the Southern Hemisphere had a below average season. As a result, the Atlantic, which ordinarily accounts for just 13% of global cyclone activity, accounted for 28% in 2010--the greatest proportion since accurate tropical cyclone records began in the 1970s. Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for 2010 was the lowest since the late 1970s (ACE is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed.)
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 2010's strongest tropical cyclone: Super Typhoon Megi at 2:25 UTC October 18, 2010. A reconnaissance aircraft measured a central pressure of 885 mb and surface winds of 190 mph in the storm, making Megi the 8th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Image credit: NASA.
A record quiet 2010 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season
The Western Pacific set records for fewest number of named storms (fifteen, previous record seventeen in 1998) and typhoons (nine, tied with the previous record of nine in 1998. Note that Tropical Storm Mindulle was upgraded to a typhoon in post-analysis after the season was over.) Reliable records began in the mid-1960s. For just the second year in history, the Atlantic had more named storms and hurricane-strength storms than the Western Pacific. The only other year this occurred was in 2005. Ordinarily, the Western Pacific has double to triple the amount of tropical cyclones of the Atlantic. One other notable feature of the 2010 season was the lack of a land-falling typhoon on the Japanese mainland. This is only the second such occurrence since 1988.
In 2010, there was only one super typhoon--a storm with at least 150 mph winds--in the Western Pacific. However, this storm, Super Typhoon Megi, was a doozy. Megi's sustained winds cranked up to a fearsome 190 mph and its central pressure bottomed out at 885 mb on October 16, making it the 8th most intense tropical cyclone in world history. Fortunately, Megi weakened significantly before hitting the Philippines as a Category 3 typhoon. Megi killed 69 people on Taiwan and in the Philippines and did $700 million in damage, and was the second deadliest and damaging typhoon of 2010. Category 3 Typhoon Fanapi was the deadliest and most damaging typhoon of 2010, doing over $1 billion in damage to Taiwan and China and killing 105.
The record quiet typhoon season in 2010 was due, in part, to the La Niña phenomena. During such events, the formation region for Western Pacific typhoons moves northwestward, closer to China. Thus, storms that form in the Western Pacific spend less time over water before they encounter land, resulting in a lesser chance to become a named storm, and less time to intensify. They also accumulate a lower ACE due to their shorter duration. Since the Western Pacific is responsible for 35% of the world's major tropical cyclones, the global ACE value is strongly tied to year-to-year variations in the El Niño/La Niña cycle.
Figure 2. Statistics for the global tropical cyclone season of 2010. The two numbers in each box represent the actual number observed in 2010, followed by the averages from the period 1983-2007 (in parentheses). Averages and records were computed using the December 23, 2008 release of NOAA's International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship.
A record quiet 2010 Eastern Pacific Typhoon Season
In the Eastern Pacific, it was also a record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. In 2010, there were 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The previous record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and zero intense hurricanes. La Niña was largely responsible for the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. It is quite remarkable that both the Eastern and Western Pacific ocean basins had record quiet seasons in the same year--there is no historical precedent for such an occurrence.
Climate change and the 2008 global tropical cyclone season
We only have about 30 years of reliable global tropical cyclone data, and tropical cyclones are subject to large natural variations in numbers and intensities. Thus, it will be very difficult at present to prove that climate change is affecting global tropical cyclone activity. (This is less so in the Atlantic, where we have a longer reliable data record to work with.) A common theme of many recent publications on the future of tropical cyclones globally in a warming climate is that the total number of these storms will decrease, but the strongest storms will get stronger. For example, a 2010 review paper published in Nature Geosciences concluded: "greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2 - 11% by 2100. Existing modeling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6 - 34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modeling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre." Last year, I discussed a paper by Bender et al that concluded that the total number of Atlantic hurricanes is expected to decrease by the end of the century, but there could be an increase of 81% in the number of Category 4 and 5 storms. The net effect of a decrease in total number of hurricanes but an increase in the strongest hurricanes should cause an increase in U.S. hurricane damages of about 30% by the end of the century, the authors computed, assuming that hurricane damages behave as they did during the past century. A new paper just published by Murakami et. al predicts that Western Pacific tropical cyclones may decrease in number by 23% by the end of the century, primarily due to a shift in the formation location and tracks of these storms.
In light of these theoretical results, it is interesting that 2010 saw the lowest number of global tropical cyclones on record, but an average number of very strong Category 4 and 5 storms. Fully 21% of last year's tropical cyclones reached Category 4 or 5 strength, versus just 14% during the period 1983 - 2007. Most notably, in 2010 we had the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea (Category 4 Cyclone Phet in June) and the strongest tropical cyclone ever to hit Myanmar/Burma (October's Tropical Cyclone Giri, an upper end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds.) It is too early to read anything into this year's global tropical cyclone numbers, though--we need many more years of data before making any judgments on how global tropical cyclones might be responding to climate change.
Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Thursday, June 3, 2010. Record heat over southern Asia in May helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal, and the exceptionally warm SSTs helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Phet into the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone. Phet killed 44 people and did $700 million in damage to Oman.
Figure 4. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010, just prior to landfall in Myanmar/Burma. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giri killed 157 people and did $359 million in damage. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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First of all, the teacher's pension isn't for 'the greater good' it's for the good of the teacher. Like it or not, teachers are paid by the taxpayers. In rough economic times, tax revenue is down. Teachers, like every other public employee groups, have to take a bit of a hit.
What other professions work 196 days per year and get paid full time and have good benefits and a pension plan? You guys keep bringing up millionaires and billionaires. That has absolutely nothing to do with this argument.
Radar Lub
Jeff, i'm not sure where your getting your 9-11 hour work days. I have many family members that are teachers that work 7-4 and have little take home work to do with the age of todays technology. Most test are graded at school and each teacher has a 1 hour per day for prep. So, i am not sure where your getting this time of overwork you talk of. Now, if you choose to be an Administrator then, yes they put in the extra time with sports events but, their compensated nicely for that time and responsibility.
hahaha- good one, cat5!
More Arctic lights are in the offing. A solar wind stream is buffeting Earth's magnetic field, and NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% - 25% chance of high-latitude geomagnetic activity during the next 24 hours."
The picture has more to do with Arctic circulation patterns. Pretty clouds in the Arctic skies...
...can herald ozone depletion. "By the end of March, [up to] 40% of the ozone in the stratosphere had been destroyed [in the NorthernHemisphere's worst affected areas], against a previous record of 30%."
The Scandinavians and the Russians are gonna have an easy time tanning up before bikini season.
Just kidding. The amount of the most radiation-damaging UltraViolet increases more in comparison to the less harmful tanning UV when the ozone shield weakens. So it ain't as healthy to be out in the Sun as in normal times.
As an example we find that the probability of Florida being hit by a major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricane this year is 34% which is substantially higher than the yearly climatological average of 21%.
South Florida is much more prone to being impacted by a hurricane on an individual year basis compared with northeast Florida. For instance, the probability of Miami-Dade County being impacted by hurricane-force wind gusts this year is 19%. For Duval County, the probability of being impacted by hurricane-force wind gusts is only 5%. However, considering a 50-year period, the probability of Duval County experiencing hurricane-force wind gusts is 75%.
For the island of Puerto Rico, the probability of a named storm, hurricane and major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the island this year is 50%, 26%, and 8%,
thanks!
interesting
Study: Maine Most Peaceful State; Louisiana Least
The next round, welcome to April
ACUS48 KWNS 060907
SPC AC 060907
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CDT WED APR 06 2011
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
COMPARISONS OF THE PAST 1-2 DAYS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED LESS
INTER- AND INTRA-MODEL SIMILARITIES...THOUGH THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT
THE WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE CONUS MOVING INTO
THE ERN STATES ON DAY 6 /MON APR 11/. IN THE WEST ON DAY 6...THE
NEXT UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WHILE
TENDENCIES FOR A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION.
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A SYSTEM ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DAY 7 /TUE APR 12/
AND DAY 8 /WED APR 13/. FARTHER S...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE SRN PLAINS ON DAY 8...BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.
...DAY 4 /SAT APR 9/...
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...THERE IS AGREEMENT IN
THE LOW LEVELS SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO WRN WI BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE NWD BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER-MID
MO VALLEY AND SPREADING NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
...DAY 5 /SUN APR 10/...
THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY HAS DIVERGED FROM ITS EARLIER RUNS
AND IS NOW INDICATING A CLOSED COMPACT LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS MAINTAINS MORE OF A
OPEN LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAINS REACHING THE GREAT LAKES
TO LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...EACH
MODEL SHOWS STRONG SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR
A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...WITH
A W/SWWD EXTENSION ADDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE SLOWER 06/00Z
ECMWF.
...DAY 6 /MON APR 11/...
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE PORTION OF THE
ERN HALF OF THE U.S. THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY TSTMS ON MONDAY...A
REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL NOT BE INCLUDED AT THIS
TIME.
..PETERS.. 04/06/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
cool video
It is VERY GOOD>>>
That's ok, because yall are gonna dry up come summer wishing for rain with high pressure in control and Texas will be getting the rains and hopefully not the big canes going around the ridge of high pressure steering the storms our way
Looks like Tampa is the big winner for the year
They normally Decrease over time as the Earth shakes itself off after the Big one.
Sorry for making Mother Nature into a person with that analogy, but it seems to be true.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aftershock and OMORI's Law.
About Education and Teachers.
See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxsOVK4syxU
palmharborforecastcenter says:
April 5, 2011 at 11:03 pm
Greg, the Gulf may be a concern, due to the sst anomalies are heating up for one, and if we hit the neutral ENSO pattern, the Azores/Bermuda (A/B) High could set up to where some storms may get steered from the Caribbean, into the Gulf.
Yea that is amazing since were in our DRY season. But as you know have to take it when we can get it. Example in Jan / Feb 1998 we were responding to extreme flooding in the area, historic tornado event which killed many, and a couple of months later was fighting huge wild fires through out CF with extreme drought. Was a crazy year. Thing change.
yes
The odds of a storm are great because there has not been one. I am not sure how long or what the longest length of time between a major cane in the GOM. Wish i had the time to look at that.
Awesome stuff there. And the part about Shakespeare - BRILLIANT!!!! LMAO
We had one last year, and very nearly two.
Hurricane Karl was a Cat 3.
Gustav had a peak intensity of Cat 3 in the gulf.
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