Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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TCHP is really increasing across the carib.
I think we can all understand why! Those of you that remain are very much appreciated by the sane readers of this blog though. Thanks for your insights.
This speaks volumes........91L is heading into the Caribbean......well south of Puerto Rico it appears to me....
Not at 15N, IMO.
I am missing at this moment Drakoen. I have followed all his analysis and yes,sometimes debates with Levi.
Hey Levi -
We're still around...just lurking.
Quoting Tazmanian:
jasoniscoolman2010x
jasoniscoolman09
jasoncoolman2010xx
jasoniscoolman10
jasoniscoolman2010xx
jason2010xxxx
jasoniscoolman2010xo
jasoniscoolman2011xz
jasoncoolman2010zz
jasonweatherman2010
JasonWeather2012
jasonweather11
jasonweatherman2011
all so guys now that you have him or will be here is a list of 13 other of his names that you may want too add too your Ignore has he may bypass the one you this put on
The 15N that I stated was more of a rounded number. It's actually closer to 14.5N on satellite.
I also like IKE and hurricane23. I still see them pop up every now and then, but not as often as I'd like. Oh and there's also lefty...he was great as well.
Link
My comment was towards Levi stating the center around 15N. I noted 20kts of Swrly wind shear that could be displacing the MLC up to 15N. Both images you posted clearly show the strongest turning at the ATCF coordinates.
Well said!!!! And you know where i am coming from.
if you are say some in
Here's the synthetic image from 30. July at 1900 UTC.
Compare the region along the leeward islands it to the synthetic image from today at 200 UTC.
The field appears to be splitting up and if you watch the animation CIMSS MIMIC-TPW you'll perhaps see some interaction between the wave and the center. So perhaps with less interference from the wave out ahead of 91L's center it can finally gather up some circulation.
having the same problem. need rid X
I for one have no intentions of leaving.
Old school here as well. Seems this same stuff happens EVERY year. Its rather annoying.
Link
hey
plzs see post 5611
Well I'm glad at least some are.
I see ya Taz.
Its not off topic, its tropical. I think IMO that WPAC storms have more warm open water, thats why they are larger. I Could be wrong, feel free to correct me anybody.
(12:00 am EDT)
0400 GMT on 08/01/2011:
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):
1010.2 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):
-0.4 mb ( Falling )
Still very high pressure and not falling much. We must be seeing a very Strong Middle to Lower Level Spin with not much of a CLOSED Surface Low yet.
That's it in the simplest sense, yes. It is also because of the relatively steep pressure gradient typically found in that basin due to predominantly warm water.
cool
any one else plzs say some in
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