Not a trace of Don; What's next?
Don is dead
Tropical Storm Don, the fourth named storm of the 2011 season, made landfall near Baffin Bay, Texas yesterday evening around 10pm CDT in less-than-grand fashion. The storm was looking very weak for the 24 hours before landfall, but fizzled rapidly after landfall, and by early Saturday morning, there was barely a trace of the storm to show that it even existed in the first place.
NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake probably said it best in this mornings 5am EDT discussion on the storm:
THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.
Figure 1. Total precipitation accumulation for the storm, estimated by radar.
The heaviest rainfall was falling south of the storm's center yesterday, so it wasn't surprising that Brownsville saw the most rain, 0.63 inches. KBRO also recorded 18 mph wind gusts. But to the north of the center, where many of the media were located, not a drop of rain fell. Corpus Christi saw zero inches of rain, but did record gale-force wind gusts (39 mph). Harlingen, near Baffin Bay, and close to where the center made landfall, saw 0.20 inches of rain and 18 mph wind gusts. This storm did very, very little to relieve any drought conditions in Southern Texas. And so it continues.
What's next: Invest 91L continues to impress
Invest 91L, which is located near 12°N 48°W in the central Atlantic, continues to impress today, and has shown signs of more organization over the past 24 hours. 91L will probably develop into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the Lesser Antilles, so residents of these islands should remain watchful and prepared. Satellite loops show not only organized thunderstorm activity, but also the makings of a surface circulation. Something this wave has working against it right now is dry air—there's a large mass of Saharan air on the north and east sides of the system, which could at least prevent significant intensification. Also, University of Wisconsin CIMSS analysis shows some strong wind shear (30-40 knots) to the north of the wave. However, I don't expect this to prevent development of the wave. Wind shear out ahead of the system is relatively low (5-15 knots). Moisture is plenty high within the system, and sea surface temperatures are warm and toasty (28°C+) and will only get warmer as 91L moves west into the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite of invest 91L taken at 1:15pm EDT today.
Forecast for 91L
Most of the reliable forecast models (GFS, CMC, FIM, and the ECMWF) have come to agree that 91L will develop, however, they differ on how long-lived that will be. Some of the models are suggesting it will be a short-lived tropical cyclone, not making it out of the Caribbean alive, and some suggest that it will hold together and intensify as it moves north of the Caribbean islands. The forecast track for the system will most likely be to the northwest through the Caribbean, at which point it will take a northeast turn near the Bahamas, never reaching the U.S. coast. HWRF agrees with this track (and also brings the system to category 2 strength by August 3rd). However, there is still some uncertainty that the system could track west, south of the Caribbean islands, and potentially into the Gulf of Mexico. However, none of the models that suggest this solution actually show that the wave will be a tropical cyclone at that point.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this wave an 80% chance of developing into at least Tropical Depression Five over the next 48 hours. Chances are we will see Emily out of this system. A Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm EDT, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see them call this system this evening, given the threat to the Lesser Antilles.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
If 91L develops, I'll be back tomorrow with a post.
Angela
Reader Comments
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All the models are going to flop around 5 days + out. GFDL & HWRF are null and void until there is a depression. ATM the Lesser Antillies, PR, DR, Hispanola, Haiti, Turks & Caicos and other islands in the region need to prepare for a possible impact of 91L. Once it reaches a point N of PR we can be more sure of the track beyond. Any confident talk of a recurve or impact on the US at this point is 100% pure and simple guess and should not be taken seriously.
Invest91 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Levi is right. Clearly to be seen on the Mimic-Wave-Site:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/ natl/main.html
I personally do not think the level of "teen tricks" has been very high so far this season, mainly because most bloggers have been pretty quick to [-] and [!] specious posters. And while you may have a personal distaste for the posts of a particular blogger, that's not the same as reacting to a troll spamming the blog.
As for Taz and Jason, these guys have their foibles - as do we all - but they are here for the same reason we are. Their interest in tropical weather is clear, and they work hard to participate in this blog. I have my own hypotheses about poor spelling and frequent name changes that have nothing at all to do with spamming the blog or trying to be a nuisance. I like these guys because they remind us to live and let live. It is what it is. I say let them be; put them on ignore if it makes you feel better, but let them be otherwise.
I don't want to see this blog become the stodgy, back-slapping entity other "erudite" blogs have become. A great attraction of this blog is the wide variety of bloggers of every shape, size, age, creed, nationality, political stripe possible. It makes us a bit more fractious than other blogs, perhaps, but it also gives this blog a dynamism and vitality that many other blogs lack.
YMMV
coast sticks out like a sore thumb putting them more at risk.
I guess that makes me one of the early birds.
The Invest Envelope is well know and the runs depict the most "Likely" scenario based on the available info.
They will change as thats what the ensembles do,,improve over time with better input.
By far, it would have to be JFV.
Or so it seems from his posts...
Different basins are different.
For the time being it resembles that of 2010 but there maybe some changes in the works come 2nd week of august or so.
Just about the highest you'll find anywhere in the world. If you watch the TCHP loop, it is clear that Muifa has been draining the TCHP in the Philippine sea, but there is still plenty of TCHP left. The real limiting factor for this storm is some rather poor upper level winds to the north of the system.
Far removed, to the NW of Muifa, is a trough strung out across the NW pacific, off Japan. To the East of Muifa is a massive ridge sitting over Asia. These two systems are producing winds out of the north to the north of the system. This is pushing air toward the system, causing upper level convergence to the north of the system.
This is causing air to sink to the north of the system, and additionally, as this air sinks, it warms. The warming process means the relative humidity with that parcel of air drops, and thus it the upper level convergence is creating dry air to the north of the system. This is limiting convection and outflow to the north of the system, and as a result, we are seeing most convection and outflow in the other three quadrants of the system. This can be seen on microwave, WV. and IR imagery.
Obviously, Muifa does have a nice anticyclone aloft, which has allowed this system to literally explode under the warm SSTs, light shear, and moist environment. However, these upper level conditions should prevent Muifa from becoming too much stronger...although, gradual intensification could continue for a little while longer.
He really does not look impressive.
she* :)
Not looking good. Me and Baha are on the same island :P
I truly hope it doesn't resemble '08 at all! I have no desire to relive anything like Hurricane Ike.
thing is the tropical wave is being pushed faster than the actual low pressure but that will change as the low pressure will pick up some speed and try to catch up to the wave
Woah, we still have hours left till the update, alotta things can happen. I'll be back in a bit, gotta take care of a few things.
The Western Atlantic Basin can spit one out right under yer nose if you focus on one invest/AOI only
Heavy t-storm moving over us now
One of the analog years for this season is 2008, so yes, this season could resemble 2008. Highest risk areas include the Carolinas and SW/W Gulf.
not so much the dry air but the tropical wave is getting steered faster than the low pressure and the tropical wave wants to seperate away but the low pressure is desperatly trying to catch up with it. NHC wont really lower the chances but just wait and see. it has 8-10 hours overnight to catch up with the wave
91L doesn't look as impressive as it did a couple hours earlier, but I have no doubt it's normal.
That Cell shows up here as well Cayman2010
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
This is still a very impressive wave, and hasn't changed much in organization.
Watching a northwest Caribbean disturbance
A broad area of disturbed weather is producing some heavy thunderstorms in the northwest Caribbean, southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Little to no low-level circulation exists with this feature, and none of the models are picking up on it. The Hurricane Center has "blobbed" this item (as I like to say) with a "near 0%" chance of developing over the next 48 hours. This disturbance could cause major flooding in the region given the amount of thunderstorm activity, and predictability for systems like this (potential Bay of Cempeche tropical cyclones) is very low. Models have a short lead time on development, and they spin up very fast once they enter the Bay of Campeche given the favorable topography of the land surrounding it. The difference between this system, though, and one like Arlene, is that there is very, very little low level circulation already present. Pre-Arlene was a bit more organized before it crossed the Yucatan, and so it's hard to imagine that this disturbance will be able to hold together, should it get that far.
did you read what levi posted about the wave trying to seperate from the low pressure? thats whats happening although by tomorrow it should catch up with it. Also it DMIN time and DMIN does have a significant effect on invests like don aswell. we shall see what it looks like tomorrow morning
430 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION THROUGH THU.
Every time, every system. Wax in convection 'TD at 11 am' wane in convection 'not impressive, RIP'
But the Actual GFS takes it over puerto Rico in the 18Z run...
Something is fishy! or not...personally fish would be nice..
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