Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC
Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.
Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .
Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.
Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.
New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.
Jeff Masters
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economically speaking, it would be cheaper to buy bottled water and dump it in the rivers, lakes, yards, etc...
Yeah, it is. But I expect to see a small, weak system on the 18Z GFS which should start running within the next few minutes, lol.
that is for 93L correct? and is the change in movement due to the fact that it appears to be strengthening and the models now expect it to be pulled to the north instead of going due west?
No, that is a wave that is just now moving off Africa.
That's on the "pseudo" African system.
That is probably true, with a magical trough to pull it out into the open Atlantic!
Actually, the ECMWF and GFS both show the African wave, not 93L.
Was expecting this. 93L will continue to loose most of its deep convection throughout the night, with a blowup later.
Oh plese not New Orleans again... We are still listing to them whine from the last one.
GFS forecast for any storm in the Gulf is not surprising given that forecast track crosses through the 31C+ SSTs.
You've been saying you want the systems to come to New Orleans, but yet, when one of the models actually show it, you say you don't want it.
Make up your mind.
Kinda what I've been worrying about lately, with nothing to use up all that energy so far (Arlene and Don certainly didn't draw that much heat off the Gulf), if the lid *does* come off this year we could have some serious problems.
Cheaper, yes, but a huge waste of energy, petroleum and groundwater.
Um, never said anyting about wanting it to go to New Orleans..... I said we need it here in my neck of the woods, which is Houston,
Category 2 hurricane on both models.
That's almost two weeks out, I think. And only one run from one model. No reason to be worried about it, you have plenty of time, and more than likely this will not pan out.
Oops sorry, was thinking you were another person.
Sorry!! You guys have about the same avatar, it looks like.
Thinking of stormtop?
It means little. Always be ready to pack in a hurry all season long, but don't actually pack unless you see a major storm 3 days from landfall in your area. We're talking about 10-15 days from now, and a wave that is just fresh out of the womb. The GFS has already planted that storm in several different places, thousands of miles apart.
and flying water from the great lakes wouldn't be??
900hpa winds at 100 knots
968mb pressure
Cat 2/3
For what its worth.
Yes.
First off, BREATHE!
Second off it's way too early to say where it will go, it could very well being on its way to TD soon.
i know and understand that it is 10 days out...but will start now by saying.....NO THANK YOU PLEASE
Compare.
2011:
2010:
Yeah, that's a pretty serious system.
Anything is possible, but it is way too early to be talking about intensity or track, when a system hasn't even developed into a tropical cyclone.
the 1st one is 5N 30W
the 2nd one is 5N 35W
plzs ues this IR Link
and tell me what you see and think of them all so any mode runs show any thing on them?
It's 14 days out from now. It's pretty likely that wouldn't even happen at all.
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