Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting WxLogic:


We'll see how 93L evolves through the day and see what happens by 2PM.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Still at 20%.

Quoting NASA101:
00Z HWRF with a CAT 4 with 93L....LOL

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Not too much that can be said for 93L this morning other than it is doing what one would expect and that is very little.

It just never had enough time or organization to get it together before entering the eastern Caribbean and the opportunity to do so now falls to 75W and beyond.The HH for 65W will probably be cancelled unless it realy gets cranking today and that is unlikely IMO.

The ASCAT pass last night did not show even a wind shift at the surface near the islands and certainly no sign of a surface low. The surface map at 2:46 last night showing a surface low was certainly not supported by that pass and I was never convinced that the map accurately depicted conditions on the surface.

Be that as it may, we are back to a wait and see game.

The other feature to watch is obviously the vigorous wave that has just come off the coast of Africa. I would wait a couple of days for it to pull away from the coast and get to 40W before focussing too heavily on what it may do or where it may go.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Quoting stormhank:
could someone send me a link to the map that shows the total water precipitation and list the pouch numbers thanks

Quoting USAFwxguy:


Link

all kinds of great links there, including the major models

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Quoting P451:


You mean to tell us that the US coastline at risk for hurricane landfalls extends beyond NOLA, South Florida, and Cape Fear?

Reading this blog... you'd think nothing outside of those three areas even exists. Except for Haiti. But only the deforested mountains of Haiti.

Thankfully the few reasonable individuals here, and the rest of the US coastline, happen to know and think differently.

Just one of many reasons that this is just a public hobbyist blog meant for friendly storm discussion - and not a place to get official information - let alone base your plans off of.

----

As to preparedness it amazes me that some individuals apparently are not prepared despite being in high risk areas. Yet a few 360 hour model runs suddenly have them *thinking* about getting prepared?

Wow....

Quoting stormhank:
could someone send me a link to the map that shows the total water precipitation and list the pouch numbers thanks

Quoting stormhank:
could someone send me a link to the map that shows the total water precipitation and list the pouch numbers thanks

Quoting hydrus:
This was a horrific hurricane that does not get much attention..

Quoting ncstorm:
Unfortunately, not everyone has the financial ability to be "prepared"..people are out of work these days so you are going to have a lot of people this season buying supplies at the last minute because frankly they dont have the means to buy extra stuff right now..

Quoting hydrus:
Good morning K-man..Always like reading your posts..:)

Quoting P451:


DMax has now run it's course. Now you should expect a general leveling off of convection and then a decrease to follow. How much will be the important factor here.

As it moves further west and nears a region more conducive for cyclogenesis you should see it lose less convection each cycle around.

Finally finding itself in good enough shape to take the next step in organization.

This thing has work to do. It still has no surface features to speak of. It has a very large and broad mid level circulation. It is very disorganized.

Quoting islander101010:
1928

Quoting scott39:
A little taste of fall this morning on the gulf Coast....68 degrees.

Quoting robert88:
93L reminds me a little of Alex. A big envelope that takes forever to consolidate. It could easily crash into SA or the Yucatan as an open wave.