Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:30 PM GMT am 15. August 2011

+20

Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.

Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.

Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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2601. BahaHurican 02:22 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting scott39: I think the biggest problem with most people(outside of WU bloggers) is that they dont have a clue that 10 to 14 days from now a Major Hurricane MAYBE in thier backyard. I know this is no excuse, but 99% of people outside "our world" never think it will never happen to them. Especially if they have never been through one before.Procrastination, poor planning and not being educated raises its ugly head EVERY TIME! Sad, but true. I'm constantly amazed at the kinds of things people say - and believe - when a storm is approaching. And this from relatively "storm-savvy" Bahamians... Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17664

2602. weathermanwannabe 02:25 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Best thing that all the WU Bloggers can do (other than donate time or money after a storm to help victims)is to make sure that the give all of your friends and family a friendly call to give them a heads up if it looks like a storm may be threatening them so they can get check their disaster plan.....However, you cannot cry wolf on every blob or model run 10 days out because they won't take you seriously when 99% of those fizzle out or never materialize for them....... :) Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6698

2604. LADobeLady 02:25 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting MahFL: Where do you store 100 gallons of gas ? In an outside, vented shed away from my house, in gas cans. Stabil is used to keep the gas right and it is rotated out and replaced. Member Since: Juli 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794

2605. tropicfreak 02:26 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting ncstorm: so thats why they have the gates on those exits?? Correct you are! Basically, when NC gets affected, we get affected because of the way the coast bends and straightens out on the OBX, VA Beach gets some nasty weather though not as bad as NC does, still something to be reckoned with. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2606. BahaHurican 02:27 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Anyway, I gotta run. On my way out, I just want to say, these runs with the huge storm coming up over the Bahamas are really starting to get old, now.... could we not be having that so much today???? l8r Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17664

2607. Abacosurf 02:28 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting BahaHurican: I actually like this approach. If pple in a mandatory evac area insist on staying, it would help masses afterwards for local authorities to know they are/were there. As someone wrote rather harshly a couple years back [forget during which storm, now], don't forget to write your ssn on your torso so your body can be ID'd among the rubble of the storm... We certainly don't have anything that organized here... When Floyd came through Abaco in 99 Great Guana cay had only 42 people of the 150 residents on the island. We had a list of everyone who stayed and where they were. I was one of 4 Americans who stayed due to vested interests and because I wanted to see what a real hurricane was like. We stayed above the cemetary in a house built half into the lime rock about 40 feet above sea level. I would do it again in a heartbeat.... Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 911

2608. MyrtleCanes 02:29 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting robert88: I was sitting for hours in that mess when i lived in Myrtle Beach. Hugo was no fun as well. At least Myrtle has more ways to get out other than 501 now. not really, pretty much the same as always. 17, 9, 501. the only difference is 22, but it bottlenecks with 501 in Aynor, so thats not much help. I have lived here long enough that I can back road it out of here if nessasary Member Since: Mai 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 103

2609. ProgressivePulse 02:29 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
The positive phase of the NAO reflects below-normal heights and pressure across the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and above-normal heights and pressure over the central North Atlantic, the eastern United States and western Europe. The negative phase reflects an opposite pattern of height and pressure anomalies over these regions. Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4326

2610. LADobeLady 02:29 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting MahFL: Well I don't have a spare bedroom, or a boat :(. You can use sanitized 2 liter pop bottles, wash thoroughly in hot water with some non scented bleach. Fill the bottles and store them under beds, in totes that won't let light through. If you don't drink 2 liter pop, ask friends and family that do, to save the bottles for you. Do NOT count on government to take care of you. It can be days or weeks before someone shows up. Member Since: Juli 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794

2611. scott39 02:29 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting BahaHurican: Sad, but true. I'm constantly amazed at the kinds of things people say - and believe - when a storm is approaching. And this from relatively "storm-savvy" Bahamians... I wish they would intergrate some kind of program in school for kids( around the world) every season about Hurricane awareness and prepareness. Now that would be good money put to use. Member Since: Juni 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

2612. Nolehead 02:30 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
MahFL 1:42 PM GMT on August 16, 2011 +0 Quoting Nolehead: The GFS animated Link: Something of interest. that's not good at all...would be a lot of oil being slung around the al/fl beaches.. The oil is mostly on the seabed, 1000's of feet below the surface. that's where you are mistaken, I have been working this spill since last May and the things I have seen and heard would blow the publics mind. But hey tourism is hot, nothing to see here, then why are both mayors upset about a closed door meeting in NOLA regading clean up after a storm 2 to 3 years from now...not about this year?? But yes back to the oil, it's there...and a lot of it. time will tell the truth.. Member Since: Juni 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1919

2613. Grothar 02:30 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting wxmobilejim: Do you know where I can find an AL evac. route map? Here it is. Just click on what you want Link Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

2614. Buhdog 02:31 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting P451: It would be a good time to reconnect with family in safe regions within a reasonable reach. That's is what family is for anyways...even if today's American society seems to balk at such an idea as if it's an intrusion. A tank or two of gas and go hole up with relatives. Those are plans that a quick phone call can set up right now. "Hey, if we get a bad hurricane hitting us, can we come stay with you guys for a couple of weeks? We don't have the money for hotels for three weeks." I mean, if that's considered an imposition, that's ridiculous. I was about to say, for a lot of people here [The Bahamas] the "evacuation plan" is to move from their house near the sea to a family member's house further inland. There's no way to get 250,000 people off the island in the 3 or fewer days before a hurricane hits, even if people could afford it, and that's true of each of our islands with smaller population to a certain extent. Now, that doesn't mean you go sponge off your family for two weeks; you have to carry your storm supplies including bedding etc, for the time you will be there. But there has to be a way for people to help each other more during storms. It was something I wondered about during Katrina in NOLA. There were some people who couldn't afford to evacuate, yes. But I think some could have left with neighbours, family and didn't. I have a hard time thinking Americans are so disconnected from others around them that there is NO one they can turn to in a storm. Not that we don't have storm shelters too. People use them, because sometimes ALL your family lives in at risk areas [entirely possible when many island communities are coastal ones with serious vulnerabilities to surge and wave action]. But aren't shelters community-run? my wife built an online non profit site 5 years ago with these exact same principals...its a buddy system, but i wont post it and get banned. Member Since: Juli 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 950

2615. E46Pilot 02:32 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting LADobeLady: Water not exposed to light will last years, the gallons come in thick cardboard cases. Worst case in a few years I'll water my garden with them and refill the jugs. Yeah but imagine all of the plastic chemicals leaching into the water from the bottles. Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 285

2616. Stormchaser2007 02:33 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
The MJO is here to stay for 2-3 weeks Week 1 Member Since: Juni 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

2617. atmoaggie 02:33 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting tropicfreak: VA is well prepared for any storm to hit. On I-64 east of Richmond, they have gates on on ramps blocking anyone who's trying to go east on 64, and I also do believe they would do contraflow. I credit VDEM for being this prepared, they learned their lesson during Isabel. ? 1.5 M people in the Hampton Roads area cannot all take a single 4-lane (2 lane each way) interstate... I had the exact opposite opinion of the area's evac capabilities when I lived there. (Unless they have expanded that one and added in at least 2 more roads since I was last there, 5 years ago.) Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2618. Grothar 02:34 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting NASA101: 06 HWRF brings 93L to 140 knots winds at 900mb! Ridiculous given what it looks like right now... This was Wilma just a few days before you know what. Everyone thought she would dissipate. Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

2619. LADobeLady 02:35 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting E46Pilot: Yeah but imagine all of the plastic chemicals leaching into the water from the bottles. We all have to die from something, I'd rather it be from the plastic, than dehydration. I cannot count on my government to save me. I have to have personal responsibility for me and my family. That is a lesson everyone needs to learn and live by. Member Since: Juli 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794

2620. weathermanwannabe 02:35 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Another point on the evacuation issue is to consider the vulnerable in your own immediate family. Some of the "tough" folks might laugh at an incoming storm and decide to ride it out, even with evacuation orders, but don't make that decision for your children or elderly and put their lives at risk. Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6698

2621. K8eCane 02:35 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting MyrtleCanes: shocking, I know I live in NMB. LOL the gov is so inept in this state its pretty much a joke, from the local levels and up.... Myrtlecanes you arent far from me at all...Im in Wilmington Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2375

2622. Neapolitan 02:36 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166

2623. Some1Has2BtheRookie 02:37 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting MahFL: Where do you store 250 gallons of water, and how much did it cost to buy ? Never overlook the obvious. Should you know that you are about to be hit by a hurricane you can easily sterilize your bathtubs using bleach a few hours ahead of the storm. Fill your bathtubs with water. You can pre-purchase a sheet of plywood to cut down to fit over the tub. Cheap, no lugging in water over a few weeks and should last you a good while. Remember, this water is for drinking and cooking only. Don't be using it to give the dog a bath. LOL Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102

2624. AussieStorm 02:38 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting scott39: I wish they would intergrate some kind of program in school for kids( around the world) every season about Hurricane awareness and prepareness. Now that would be good money put to use. At my son's school they have weather info during lunch 2-3 times a week. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13351

2625. E46Pilot 02:38 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting LADobeLady: We all have to die from something, I'd rather it be from the plastic, than dehydration. I cannot count on my government to save me. I have to have personal responsibility for me and my family. That is a lesson everyone needs to learn and live by. What about filling up the bathtubs? That's like pretty much free. Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 285

2626. FtMyersgal 02:42 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting Grothar: Here is a link for the Florida Evacuation maps. I think it is a good idea for people living in different areas to post the links on here. It could come in handy some day. Just click on your County, and the the details show up Link That is an excellent idea Grothar. Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1001

2627. barotropic 02:43 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting scott39: I think the biggest problem with most people(outside of WU bloggers) is that they dont have a clue that 10 to 14 days from now a Major Hurricane MAYBE in thier backyard. I know this is no excuse, but 99% of people outside "our world" never think it will never happen to them. Especially if they have never been through one before.Procrastination, poor planning and not being educated raises its ugly head EVERY TIME! Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652

2629. tropicfreak 02:50 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting atmoaggie: ? 1.5 M people in the Hampton Roads area cannot all take a single 4-lane (2 lane each way) interstate... I had the exact opposite opinion of the area's evac capabilities when I lived there. (Unless they have expanded that one and added in at least 2 more roads since I was last there, 5 years ago.) They can also take US 60, which runs alongside 64 from the beach through Richmond. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

2630. wxmobilejim 03:08 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting Grothar: Here it is. Just click on what you want Link thanks for the link. The info is great Member Since: Mai 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 230

2631. BahaHurican 03:17 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting Abacosurf: When Floyd came through Abaco in 99 Great Guana cay had only 42 people of the 150 residents on the island. We had a list of everyone who stayed and where they were. I was one of 4 Americans who stayed due to vested interests and because I wanted to see what a real hurricane was like. We stayed above the cemetary in a house built half into the lime rock about 40 feet above sea level. I would do it again in a heartbeat.... These little 40 ft outcrops are what have been saving Bahamian lives for hundreds of years. The list thing u mentioned is akin to the "check on family" that Family Island communities have done for a very long time. In the cities, it's a little different, a bit more difficult, to do this. Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17664

2632. BahaHurican 03:22 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting scott39: I wish they would intergrate some kind of program in school for kids( around the world) every season about Hurricane awareness and prepareness. Now that would be good money put to use. Knowledge is power. There is a certain amount of hurricane teaching incorporated into primary social studies curriculum here, but I think more general awareness can be raised. Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17664

2633. serialteg 04:40 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
strong gusty winds in PR's south shore, squalls Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1966

2634. AWXWatcher 05:07 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting atmoaggie: ? 1.5 M people in the Hampton Roads area cannot all take a single 4-lane (2 lane each way) interstate... I had the exact opposite opinion of the area's evac capabilities when I lived there. (Unless they have expanded that one and added in at least 2 more roads since I was last there, 5 years ago.) The roadblocks are designed to allow ALL lanes to flow in the same direction Member Since: August 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9

2635. AWXWatcher 05:09 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
Quoting ncstorm: so thats why they have the gates on those exits?? Yup! Member Since: August 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9

2636. Jedkins01 06:31 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING PRC025-035-057-063-069-077-085-103-109-123-129-15 1-161845- /O.NEW.TJSJ.SV.W.0009.110816T1823Z-110816T1845Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 223 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CAGUAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAGUAS... CAYEY MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAYEY... GUAYAMA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... GURABO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GURABO... HUMACAO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PUNTA SANTIAGO...HUMACAO... JUNCOS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JUNCOS... LAS PIEDRAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAS PIEDRAS... NAGUABO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NAGUABO... PATILLAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... SALINAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... SAN LORENZO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SAN LORENZO... YABUCOA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO... * UNTIL 245 PM AST * AT 217 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ANTON RUIZ TO 7 MILES EAST OF CAYEY TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF CAYEY...MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LA FERMINA...CELADA AND BAIROA PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. && LAT...LON 1825 6588 1829 6578 1822 6566 1817 6569 1818 6572 1815 6573 1815 6578 1812 6577 1815 6578 1809 6599 1798 6621 1813 6622 1815 6610 1821 6611 1823 6608 1831 6606 1831 6597 TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 099DEG 28KT 1818 6583 1810 6608 1803 6622 $$ ROSA Strong squalls in Puerto Rico Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

2637. benheb 08:27 PM GMT am 16. August 2011
The rainfall in New York over the weekend was incredible - here is more on it, with some staggering stats: Link Member Since: Juli 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3

2638. hurricanehunter27 12:41 AM GMT am 17. August 2011
Im tearing up after watching this. One of the better news reports. Link Member Since: Juli 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3471

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