Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC
Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.
Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .
Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.
Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.
New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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If I believe the GFS everytime it had a storm hitting NC, I would have evacuated at least 10 times this season already..
LOL..exactly..
13Aug2011 0.18812E+00
14Aug2011 0.45135E+00
15Aug2011 0.35263E+00
I think in more terms of going up the EC.. Though it's wayy to early to tell, hasn't even developed. It may not..
lol
Well the theory behind it is that the hot, dry weather in Trinidad in recent times was caused by a lack of water vapour in the atmosphere and an unusually timid ITCZ. However, with the arrival of 93L, there's more moisture today and that, in conjunction with the usual daytime heating would result in thunderstorm development today.
At this time of day, that's pretty impressive !
So could we be looking at a Charley-like track? (Not necessarily intensity-wise)
And we needs lotsa libation time at a few, er, establishments here.
To discuss matta's and such..
..of course.
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REED model is only ran when a formidable storm is forecast to affect the CONUS.
/delurk
Sadly, that's a trait of a lot of people here. They have forecast bias. Reed constantly calls for east coast hits. Others historically have called for every storm to ignore troughs, break ridges, and veterans of this place need only hear "pump the ridge" to know of one particular bias.
Using models-and only ONE model-beyond five days out is a fool's game. Anyone remember last week when 92L and 93L danced all over the east coast in one run? How'd that pan out?
Every time I come here and see someone say this is a great place for people to get the REAL information about storms, I laugh. It's a great place to get a lot of hyperbole, and despite a few good people who know what they're talking about, it's a great place to see the phrase "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing" in action.
/relurk.
Lol..Yup. The GFS shows a huge hurricane hitting me in 15 days. I've already called and told crane operators to lift my house off its foundation...I'm moving to Canada.
If pottery is impressed,,Im paying attention.
Possible, but look at the convergence.
Then we have the dry air to the west, probably going to get into the minuscule circulation.
That means that 93L will loose most of its heavy thunderstorm activity within the next 5 hours, and won't look as pretty. I think it will stay at 10%.
Hey...Emily wasn't formidable. Emily just got special treatment?
Here comes the however. I really like this blog site. There are some very informed people on this blog when it comes to the Tropics, but somtimes it seems there are some who throw out facts as though they came straight from the NHC OR SOME OTHER SOURCE OF REPUTATION. And yes it is subject that I have studied for 35 years, because of the stories my father told me about watching 7 people die in front of him when he was 9 YEARS OLD IN HURR AUDREY IN 1957. I have a deep respect for experts on this subject and those on this blog who take it very seriously and do give out honest information, and even try to self predict what might happen given factual ifo and not on cause I want something to devastate my area for just the excitement factor so THANKS TO THE ONES WHO REALLY CARE AND DISCUSS HONESTLY OR EVEN OUT OF A CURIOUS MIND. BUT FOR THOSE WHO JUST LIKE TO THROW IN A MONKEY WRENCH. I THINK BREAK.COM IS MORE OF YOUR FORTE
Actually Levi, another message I am seeing from the 00Z/06 runs of the GFS and 00Z EURO is that the pattern is setting up for an East Coast run. In other words, no more OTS systems near the CONUS. The high builds and the troughs are a bit further west allowing a potential storm to touch the CONUS.
Well, he's been posting here longer than you have.
Your history goes back two months?
At least he's not using data from the Stormtop Weather Service.
THAT's the kind of stuff that scared people...
Sorry meant "classified system"
True
But it would be a fairly boring blog without conjecture and prognostication.
As long as the newbies understand this blog is for information and discussion,Not the final word.
All should be good.
WU is:
A good heads up.
A good place to learn.
An interesting social gathering.
Wu is Not a place to make life or death decisions about your safety in a storm.
True!
I was expecting rain today, and I'm getting it now.
But I WAS surprised to see how far north the main convection had jumped between midnight and 8:00am.
I anticipated the rain would be part of what is now 93L , but it is more convective and is also being pulled into the disturbance from the south.
Hence the SSE winds mentioned earlier.
Ehh, bit more east.. Like the 06Z and 00Z GFS runs.. Again, wayy to early to tell.
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
"mischief"
Nice spin starting.....and the intensity models are going against history of development in the Eastern Caribbean.......NEED TO WATCH 93L
See post #304. NAO went positive for the first time in 68days. Implications are for increased ridging on the east coast if it stays positive.
The break in the ridge is farther west, over the central-eastern GOM during the next 6-10 days, but it all depends on where the storm comes from and how strong it is. A storm developing and coming in north of the Caribbean will still be hard-pressed to reach the coast, as the pattern remains fragile there. A storm becoming strong in the Caribbean, as the 12z GFS shows, would have a much better chance of affecting the United States, as the Gulf of Mexico is now more open for business for the first time this season.
Buy more Fresca!
:):))
These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.
I doubt you remember 92L from last year. Same situation here.
Intensity models brought it up to about a Cat3/4 in the WCARB.
Obviously never happened there.
Actually relurk is correct
Link
Their respective ensembles agree decently though.
GFS ensembles Day 8:
ECMWF ensembles Day 8 (left frame):
See post's 260-261 and 262
Viewing: 301 - 351
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