Caribbean disturbance 93L to drench Honduras; 97L disturbance worth watching
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica, Invest 93L, has continued to increase in organization, and is close to tropical depression status. 93L is a small system, but has built up a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms around its center. A few low-level spiral bands are apparent on satellite imagery, but there is almost no upper-level outflow apparent, and a surface circulation is not obvious. 93L has moistened its environment somewhat over the past day, but dry air is still in evidence around the storm, particularly to the southeast, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Wind shear continues to be low, 5 - 10 knots. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 93L.
Heavy rains from 93L will begin spreading over Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua tonight. The forward motion of 93L will slow to 5 - 10 mph by Friday, so the storm could be a major rain event for Northern Honduras, with rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches likely by the time the storm reaches Belize on Saturday. Heavy rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night or Saturday morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening over the next two days, which should allow 93L to reach tropical storm strength. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Honduras, or Saturday near the Belize/Mexico border. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome, and the possibility that the storm will pass too close to the northern coast of Honduras. Regardless, heavy rain will be a major threat from 93L. NHC gave 93L an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook. If 93L does cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, a strong ridge of high pressure should keep the storm moving due west to make a second landfall along the Mexican coast, well south of Texas.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa.
Invest 97L midway between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near 14°N 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave, designated 97L by NHC this morning, has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. 97L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Over the past day, all four of our reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis have predicted that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Saturday through Monday, so 97L needs to be watched carefully. NHC gave 97L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning in their 8am outlook, and it is unlikely that this storm will pose much of a threat to the Lesser Antilles. It will take several days for the storm to overcome the large amount of dry air surrounding it, even though wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. By Saturday, the wave will find a moister atmosphere and warmer sea surface temperatures near the northern Lesser Antilles, and more rapid development may occur. However, there is expected to be high wind shear associated with an upper level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico at that time, and this wind shear may interfere with development. 97L is expected to take a west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday. Long-range model runs, which are highly unreliable, foresee that 97L could be a threat to Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the middle to end of next week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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the other thing that comes to my mind is that how strong or not strong this storm could get
too much dry air then wind shear at the end
I hope I am not wrong but somehow I do not see this getting worse than a Category 1
if I am really wrong or sound weird feel free to chime in and laugh :)
However, I will say that 93L is pretty close to being a TD/Weak TS. The SE portion of the circulation might be open still. We'll see.
Yeah, even the EURO is consistent.. Everyone on the Southeast Coastline should no longer take this is as a funny model mayhem.. This is reality, the invest, while not fully developed yet, is already good in organization and once it clears 55W, this should really start to get going.
I agree the 6Z runs this morning were almost like looking at the same model over and over its eery almost!!!
Yeah. I know I sound like a broken record. Sorry. :)
Direction of Travel: WSW (242°)
Location: 170 miles (273 km) to the SSW (192°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Recon Location...
agree for 3 days in a row they dont budge lol
right now I would say that Florida is more at risk than the carolinas but you are correct in what you are saying
I just have a hard time seeing how this thing (unless there is a weak or semi strong trough) could curve up and go to the Carolinas with the High that will be sitting right on the east coast steering the storm into the Bahamas and Florida.
Then again, the storm could stay weak and go further south and enter the caribbean. any thoughts?
Will definitely keep a close eye on it here in VA. Don't need another Floyd, Fran or Isabel.
Have you ever seen models be this consistent this far out on a storm that hasn't fully developed?
in there ATM.
Time: 15:19:00Z
Coordinates: 16.0833N 70.4333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.3 mb (~ 11.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,737 meters (~ 25,384 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 419 meters (~ 1,375 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 351° at 9 knots (From the N at ~ 10.3 mph)
Air Temp: -18.0°C (~ -0.4°F)
Dew Pt: -25.2°C (~ -13.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
Check the NHC Home page, left side, Aircraft RECON
Reedzone,
Since you seem to have a burden for people to be prepared how about giving us all advice on what being prepared involves. Thanks.
WHXX01 KWBC 181512
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1512 UTC THU AUG 18 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110818 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110818 1200 110819 0000 110819 1200 110820 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 37.9W 14.0N 40.8W 14.6N 44.6W 15.7N 49.0W
BAMD 13.5N 37.9W 14.1N 40.9W 14.8N 44.4W 15.6N 48.0W
BAMM 13.5N 37.9W 14.1N 40.8W 14.9N 44.5W 16.0N 48.7W
LBAR 13.5N 37.9W 14.0N 40.6W 14.7N 43.7W 15.8N 46.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110820 1200 110821 1200 110822 1200 110823 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 53.8W 18.9N 62.9W 19.9N 70.6W 19.4N 76.2W
BAMD 16.4N 51.6W 18.4N 58.3W 20.2N 63.1W 22.0N 66.6W
BAMM 17.1N 53.1W 19.3N 61.5W 20.7N 68.8W 20.8N 74.6W
LBAR 16.6N 50.1W 18.1N 56.2W 18.9N 60.9W 18.1N 53.6W
SHIP 51KTS 68KTS 77KTS 80KTS
DSHP 51KTS 68KTS 77KTS 80KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 37.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 35.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 33.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
yes it took of a while ago now located 154mi south of santo domingo flying WSW
not sure how it could get to New Orleans
Some nice thunder, too.
The upper level low is predicted to propagate out according to the models, enough so to actually provide ventilation to the system.
Anyone got the landfall pressure for the lastest model run on 97L?
Making sure ur sticked with food and water, batteries, making sure you keep tabs very closely on 97L.
Looks like Pre-Don. :)
hmm well in that case I say it need to be further N and a bit E
Morning Cyberteddy,
These models are in very good agreement with a storm that hasn't even formed. Even the EURO is in line with the GFS on location... I predict the 12Z GFS to take 97L up the East Coast of Florida. What's ur thoughts on all of this?
Its possible, but they're still pretty far out to track atm.
WV
LBAR FTW!
What about Cheetos? Are those not on the list anymore?
can you please explain why you think this will go up the east coast of florida and not across the state?
is there something that is going to start curving north and eastward?
I ask because of the High that is supposed to steer this thing westward, thanks
latest ice coverage northern hemisphere as of mon aug 15
Viewing: 51 - 101
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