Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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You're not alone. I see a more N component as well.
Finally - would be nice to put the Libya Civil War behind us - let them rebuild and get on with life.
Don't go off of recon, the NHC may not take it to 75 mph......
The original list we made over two years ago had Carolina casters in it.. I thinks we had over 100 casters in the list including but not limited to....
Caster Caster.... LOL
It wouldn't let me open it.
possibly Hurricane Irene at 11pm
ok I just got a strange feeling. Irene is up to something and has a tricks up her sleeve. You all better watch out for her because no one should trust this girl lol :-P
I think a lot of people here WILL be surprised when she continues west and PR and the Dominican Republic really take a toll. I still think she'll get her act together again though...
000
URNT12 KNHC 220213
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 22/01:59:00Z
B. 17 deg 53 min N
065 deg 19 min W
C. 850 mb 1376 m
D. 66 kt
E. 024 deg 13 nm
F. 105 deg 67 kt
G. 024 deg 17 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 14 C / 1533 m
J. 22 C / 1522 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0309A IRENE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 67 KT NE QUAD 01:53:40Z
;
Hey, Pat, keep posting the Radar, I'm being guided by it...
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 02:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 1:59:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°53'N 65°19'W (17.8833N 65.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 61 miles (98 km) to the SE (127°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,376m (4,514ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNE (24°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 105° at 67kts (From the ESE at ~ 77.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NNE (24°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,533m (5,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 1:53:40Z
Hurricane Irene!
I doubt it will be a continuous motion, will rather just a wobble. General motion of still be WNW.
about time
Is that another jog?
The silver lining...Finally we'll get some surf (max. 15ft) later in the week(thurs). and the winds will be offshore for us east coasters in south FL once the storm heads farther to the north (central fl).
ahh hurricane season
MARK
17.79N/65.19W
LOL.
Why shouldn't it be raining in a storms eyewall? That is its strongest part.
Patrap-
Suddenly cold tops!
Yup apparently it was not suspect or rain-contaminated enough to discount...they will upgrade at 11PM.
I am not surprised personally...once that CDO fired up just before I went to get groceries (8 PM EDT)...it is imminent that Irene will become a hurricane....
We'll see. The steering would suggest a move back to the WNW, especially with the pressure fall and more deepening likely on the way. Uncontaminated hurricane force winds found.
Recon probably homing in on the center with radar.
Uh-Oh....
all timing...if it ramps up could be on the eastern side of those spaghetti models...and not go up the center of the penn...
I am in Gulf Breeze as well.
that is a very reliable model..I wont feel comfortable until it shifts farther to the east with the rest of them........I think FL will get a direct hit from Irene...
Due west movement is what I like to hear!
There isn't an eye structure...there is a burst of central dense overcast right now...so they could still have rain even at the very center...
Viewing: 5051 - 5101
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