Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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My questions is. I live in Fort Lauderdale. Is this something I need to start preparing for? I have seen some chatter saying it is going up the coast. I know it is too early to tell but it just scares the bagebeez outa me.
kinda wondering about that GFDL track...this could get intersting
Radar ominous for PR...center headed straight there....
...this radar also shows a messy center fundamentally...Irene NOT on her way to hurricane status right now...and if she stays like this through PR and Hispaniola...will be disrupted and weak for a while and do something more like GFDL....
I'm gonna need some new Levi's...
This is not good.
Nope...not this time for Fla IMO...cone shifting this eve....eastward and Bahamas in big trouble, we will see. obviously to soon to bank on anything.
poof GA
:)
I wonder if they even know what's out there...how are communications there? Truly, truly sad. Blessings to those in those tents!
Don't speak to soon my friend, This does not show Irene missing Fl. Weather is not an exact science, things can and will change. Just be prepared.
And, given the synoptic setup, the 2 western tracks of yesteryear shown above can be discounted entirely.
Is that a 975 mb or 915?
If i was there, I wouldn't want to know Irene was coming, It would set off mass panic which could be worse.
dispite what all the GA SC and NC wishcasters say who havent had a storm in like 5 yrs it will be very hard for this system not make a landfall in southflorida all the models that are being liked have a tendency to be right biased
Best make ready for Cat-1 conditions there.
Shes gonna roll thru after dark.
Take advantage of the Daylight to rush them preps and Good Luck.
Link
Invest 98L and the next threat
These were the predictions last night.
ships- 105 in 48h, 65 in 120h
gfdl- 100 in 48h- 135 in 120h
ivcn-130 in 130h
hwrf-75 for a while, 120 in 132h
Now, in 12 hours, the models have COMPLETELY changed, and still contradict each other.
Cue the denial about the uselessness of the models in 3, 2, 1....
Is that a developing storm in the central Atlantic?
communication within the camps is primarily through rumor...which will only serve to exacerbate worry, panic, etc....on the very best day, it's a bleak situation...at times like this, it becomes unimaginable for us comfortable Americans...
Irene is just getting into the radar's view, which explains why it's center looks messy. When it gets closer, Irene's true colors will be unveiled.
Show me the updated cone you have seen?
Here is the link to the site I use.
Link
To those asking for intensity, 970s mb. and 910s mb.
Bloggers are just guesses of future tracks based on model runs. We need to wait and see...
Definitely not true.
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