Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Good point. "Pumping the Ridge!"..Just had to say it!..LOL Yes, these stronger Hurricanes can do that, we would just have to see how strong she gets. She would have to be a Major for something like that to happen. I don't believe it affects them as much as some may think, but when you have a storm moving parallel to the coast like Irene will be doing 50 or 100 miles could make a big difference. We will have to watch for that.
Me too. He is the EF Hutton of Wunderground.
I agree with your agreement. I don't think Florida ends up with a hell of a lot other than some high surf. I have a feeling it might only graze the SC coast.
This is why I told people yesterday that it was ridiculously too early to say Irene was an extremely dangerous threat to Florida. lol
When I saw the models this morning I decided to take a look at this, seems they are taking the eastern solution models with little confidence at least in the shorter term.
Just my hunch but I think the track is just gonna keep moving further and further east, until about 24-48 hours from now when Florida is completely out of the cone. Still keeping an eye on it though.
computer models and the NHC must also really annoy you then.
Radar and microwave scans of the system are two of the few ways tell you more or less where it is going.
I believe that Irene will make landfall in SC/NC coast, based off of the models. However, if it should miss the coast, and head farther east than expected, I don't see this as being a threat to the upper east coast/New England area.
BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Track now much closer to Floyd in 1999.. 1999,1954 was in preseason hurricane analog package issued by my company in May
So, my call of Irene heading N of Hispanola seems to be panning out. What do you think of the impact of that Shortwave trough on her movement? Or will the High build back in and steer her far more west?
They blew in from St Croix....;^)
Are you in Florida Reed?
At least you're living and Florida and not dying in pain for hurricanes to hit Florida. Thanks for not getting heart broken because Irene will most likely miss Tampa Bay ;)
I live in the Tampa Bay area, every freaking time a hurricane threatens, people either think some voodoo magic or some dome crap like that keeps them away, or everyone just runs around panicking
"ZOMG LIKE OH CRAP GUYS TAMPA IS OVERDOOOOO THIS ONE WILL DEFINTIELY BE ARE STROM I CAN FEEL IT!"
lolol
I hear ya and I expressed that in my blog today. But intensity forecasting is where we fail most times and we really wont know how strong she may get until she clears the Hispaniola coast. But yes the ingredients are there for a Major.
For those of you wondering what happened to the San Juan radar:
FTMJUA
MESSAGE DATE: AUG 22 2011 03:26:00
THE FAA SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TJUA) HAS GONE
DOWN...MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO A LOSS OF POWER AT THE CAYEY RADAR
SITE...AS RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IRENE MOVED
ACROSS THAT AREA. WE ARE UNABLE TO RESTART THE RADAR AT THIS TIME
AND FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED. RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.
Looks due west to me! :)
Growing more concerned for the NorthEast. Just a Cat 2 would devastate us.
Wishing a storm to hit you is a pretty sad thing. Aren't you supposed to be in school?
With the ECWMF calling for landfall near Wilmington, I am watching this storm path every chance I get.
Viewing: 7601 - 7651
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