Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Exactly.
Do you think that at the 5 pm update that parts of south florida will be out of the cone?
Lets just say we don't know where its going right now, and until we get a better appearance, we won't know. Saying its headed to PR and the Carolinas is premature, at best. Not that it couldn't happen, but there is no responsible reason to put up red flags this early out.
No. Florida is still very much in it. Only a degree or two of latitude/longitude shift could mean the difference between Florida and Georgia/Carolinas with a northwest-moving storm. The NHC will move down the model consensus anyway, which is up the east coast of Florida.
Oh Boy, here we go...LOL.
Agree with all the main points in his video.
True dat. Patience.....
there we go
Excellent video update. Thanks and keep up the good work!
pic or link?
The question is...
will we still be at 9-0-0 in 48 hours?
And, yes, a new center has formed. Recon just updated, and expect the location of the new center to be around 17.367 N 63.525 W.
Did press jus tell Levi that the Clip 5 is taking it to the Carolina's ?
Tap, Tap
Is this thing on.......?
Oh please Press...an A- would take my GPA below 3.0...have mercy!
Give 'em hell Paul! LOL
Brave statement to say that west Florida has been taken out of the equation.
Hope your not eating those words in a day or two....
Why is the NHC showing such a NW track through day 5.
Because the AB high is building back to the west???
This is when the individual observer sees something that the other observer simply DOESN'T. For example, one poster sees, in a radar loop, the storm moving more north, whereas I see it moving more westerly and someone else could see it moving even WSW. Several frame loops are very bad for judging actual motion in my experience. Sometimes you're seeing the movement of storms within the system, or the expansion of the system in particular directions.
And as for the model runs, there are always things to consider in each run. The first and foremost is initialization; if that's wrong, then you might as well toss the entire model out. The second thing to consider is if the run is actually doing something that makes sense within the weather pattern forecast BY the model. The third thing to consider is that, over three days out, even the best model is saying "this is an educated guess at best." With Irene, you're dealing with a storm that is still organizing, with a possible path that could either carry it over warm waters or disruptive mountains, and depending on the strength of troughs a few days down the line for track. Don't become married to the notion that a couple of runs for the GFS means Florida is out of the clear, or that South Carolina isn't in play.
Remember always to observe the actual conditions, not a few frames on a loop. I can't count how many times the more over excitable here have thought a storm was moving in a direction it actually wasn't because of a loop. The NHC goes with general motion over several hours for a reason; these things aren't riding rails on the water out there after all.
Good luck to anyone in the path of Irene!
seems that would be accurate.
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