Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Center visible on radar and visible
FULL IMAGE (HUGE!)
is this a new run ?
12z hwrf 126 hours out
who says there having a cat 4 so far the nhc hasnt even said anything about it becomeing that strong...
Not a chance. S. Florida will definitly be in the cone at 5pm.
I didn't discount it. Levi did.
Yeah.
What does it see? What about the UKMET?
Maybe he thinks the ridge will build back in when the trough lefts out.
You think it's going to become a hurricane before impacting PR? It has a lot of work to do.
Augusta is inland on the border between SC/GA....right?
For a storm to be very siginficant there...it would have to make landfall in GA going northwestward (not going to happen here)...the most I could see for Augusta is getting sideswiped with the not nearly as severe west side (if it goes up the east coast).
Another scenario is you you get the center with it coming up from the west coast of FL and tracking NNE through Georgia...but it will have already tracked for several miles inland before Augusta though...so you would get at the very most tropical depression or minimal TS winds if it ever did that....so I don't see how Augusta can get hit hard with Irene in either scenario....
12z gdfl 72 hours out
the levees had mountains of ocean water flooding into NO..storm surge is totally different from what happened in New Orleans..
so i find it hard too be leve the mode runs are worng on this sorry too say
Yesterday the GFDL had Irene going through the Yucatan Channel. I'd say that is a pretty big shift in track in 24 hours.
I LOVE when people start talking about New Orleans Levees and Katrina. All they remember is New Orleans. It ticks me off because Mississippi got the worst of the storm's wrath. I have a friend who lived there during Katrina and he lost his house in the storm as it wiped it right off the beach.
The person above was stating that a CAT 3-4 in SC would be like Katrina in Mississippi. I understood what they meant. Enough on the freaking levee stories.
OK...obviously the UKMET is really out to lunch on this one...LOL....
That graphic shows the wind at 900 mb, not at the surface. 12Z HWRF surface winds at the end of the run:
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -76.70 LAT: 26.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 101.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -77.30 LAT: 27.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 104.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -77.90 LAT: 28.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 102.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -78.70 LAT: 29.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 103.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -79.20 LAT: 30.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 108.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -79.90 LAT: 31.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 107.00
Still a strong storm.
There are no levees on the MS Gulf Coast. Doesn't anyone remember that Katrina actually smashed MS and not just New Orleans? The disaster in New Orleans was largely manmade and occurred after the worst of the storm was past.
12z gdfl 84 hours out...
12z GFDL is already out...
Anything before that is outdated.
IMO...its a close call because pressure dropped to 999 mb...but I don't see a brilliant convective burst over the center either...so I am getting mixed messages about strengthening....
...if this hasn't strengthened wind-wise by 5 PM at all...then I don't see this ever becoming a hurricane before PR....
OMGosh..I was speaking of the flooding in New Orleans..not going to get into a discussion over Katrina..
I think they are all on "Holiday" in Aug. - LOL!
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
yup thats why i say cat 3 4 or 5 storm
From the home of Frances and Jeanne, thanks for your concerns and well-wishes!
People are so dramatic it's unbelievable... "Crush the city off the map" is untrue and ridiculous, it's still standing and doing better than ever after Hugo, eh? Major problems yes, crush it off the map, no...
r u on crack
Relax..Im not calling any storm possibly heading my way one of the worst weather disasters as some people are saying..in good time, we will know what is coming for the South East
Fortunately, it's not going to have time to strengthen much. I would put hurricane chances under 50% before it hits PR. Not really anything going on convection wise right now to get it there.
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