Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I disagree with that statement. Emily was different. Emily was a much smaller storm, and models such as GFS and ECMWF had a difficult time picking her out. Irene is a large system that the models have seen for days. The models will be more precise with Irene.
Whoa...what weatherman said that?
This is getting very serious....no joke anymore....
That's the first time that SHIPS has shown real intensification. Slightly alarming.
I live in Cary. They have had hurricane issues in Wake CO. Most problems were due lots of big trees falling in high winds: roads were closed, many houses damaged, and loss of power for up to 2 weeks in the past. So, even though we're not right by the ocean, we can be affected by a hurricane.
How serious is this getting? Especially if she doesn't weaken much from crossing the islands?
I agree, definitely moving at around 285/290 degrees to my eyes.
IRENE IS NOT EMILY....
Did Emily ever look this impressive on radar/satellite, or track WNW toward PR like Emily....?
Hopefully, you will lose neither one. But there's always insurance.
sure looks like it
100 kts.....
There is a lot of info for them to take into account I'd expect the update to come very close to 5pm. I'd say start F5ing in 25 mins.
Definitely not true.
Dude...me and you must have been riding out Fran real close...when I said Raleigh...I mean southern Cary...toward the Apex side....
we're in for quite a ride tonight
Oh heck, is it getting that time again?
That's what I said...I think so.
They brought it up when the jetstream pattern changed last week. That it would open up the SE coast for a tropical hit like Fran.
People are over dramatic IMO. Getting scared before there is a reason. I am currently in the cone and I'll be scared when there is a reason to, not because of what MAY happen. Come on people.....
Well, 5pm EDT is around lunch time for Levi, isnt' it?
Thank you, I just posted that.
Emily also had multiple areas of circulation for most if its life. A true mutant.
I don't know where you're seeing that because radar doesn't support your claim.
Fran was a Cat 3 when it came onshore. By the time it crossed Central NC, it was not even a Cat 1.
Radar doesn't support what he said...It definitely shows the circulation just to the east of St. Croix, and moving WNW.
Ask the others, you'll get the same answer.
+1000
SHIPS is based on the GFS model run, and the 12Z GFS is the first GFS run to take Irene only over extreme north Hispaniola, which I assume is the reason for the sudden intenification by SHIPS.
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