Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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GODERICH, Ont. — A severe storm some suspect may have involved a tornado struck the Ontario community of Goderich Sunday afternoon, causing widespread damage in the town centre.
Col. Morris Brause, commanding officer of the Essex-Kent Scottish regiment, was caught in the midst of the storm as he drove through Goderich, a community on Lake Huron, while hail, the size of golf balls, rained down.
He described the scene as chaotic. Roofs were torn off the tops of houses, trees were uprooted, windows in the business centre were blown out.
“The downtown has been completely devastated,” Brause said by telephone. “There’s no doubt in my mind this was a tornado. Goderich has been very badly hit.”
The Ontario Provincial Police is asking the public to stay away from the town as emergency crews attempt to respond to calls. Traffic is being detoured and police are not allowing motorists to enter the downtown area.
Witnesses to the storm have been posting their accounts on Facebook.
One witness said she was still shaking after the storm passed through her yard.
“Mass destruction. Goderich is completely shut down. I have no hydro but hear that houses are gone.”
Brause said the sky darkened very quickly as he drove on Highway 21, approaching the bridge that leads into Goderich’s downtown area. It began to hail so hard that it appeared as though the surroundings were being blanketed in a grey fog.
“We couldn’t drive,” he said, adding that cars had to stop at the side of the road because it was impossible to see.
“It was the worst kind of hailstorm,” he said, adding that it reminded him of a scene in the movie Twister. “People are shaking their heads in disbelief.”
Goderich is about 225 kilometres west of Toronto.
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too funny!!!!!
levi if u can take a look at this (if you can) the ridge appears to be alittle stronger and could move back quicker what do u think
Its going to be hard for the models to shift too far East with the Subtropical High locked in place. Once we finally got a definite center with Irene, when it was organizing last night and this morning it relocated farther North, that's when we saw that bit of an Eastward shift. I really don't see many more big shifts coming with this track unless Irene really dies over Hispaniola and then maybe the track changes a bit. But that I don't see happening either. So for the next 48 hours for the U.S its going to be tweaking that forecast and seeing if Irene will make it all the way to Florida or East of Florida, and then is trouble for points North(Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina). Intensity is an entire different matter and that will depend on its interaction with Hispaniola.
yes that is the correct layer
A page full of damage photos here. (Looks like EF-3 damage in most of the photos.)
Lol...I still laugh every time I see that picture, but my computer doesn't like having to show that face. It makes my poor computer sick. :-(
Irene Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
270 is due west, so 285 is a 15-degree angle north of west.
In fact, it appears as if it has shifted slightly westward this evening as opposed to earlier this afternoon. But there is still a decent spread to the models beyond day 4, so it is anyone's game really. I also noted too the same with the GFDL... it has also shifted WWD back into the far eastern GOMEX. Still think the UKMET and GFDL are outliers, but waiting to see if other models begin to shift slightly westward as well. Time will tell
i dont mean too be blog cop but i would re move that or you end up with a 24hr banned i think drtleg post a photo of JFV and has soon has the admin saw it he got banned
26 mph sustained
38mph gusts
Thanks!
I'm in NJ too and if this pans out at best we will get a little more damp than usual around here...
A Tornado was also Spotted around Greenfield, Massachusetts.
Press, you always know how to make me laugh.. lol.
+!
Be very careful.
Hoping you will weather Irene alright. Be safe!
Or you could end up hating yourself like some in here. :|
The strength of ridges and troughs are not easily gauged on those maps - only their general shape. To me the models have a decent handle on the trough coming down over the northeast U.S., and much of the long-term track will depend on how much interaction Irene has with Hispaniola. The location at which she emerges from the island, as well as how much it weakens her, will determine how fast she tries to move into the weakness left by the trough.
Link
NEXRAD Radar
Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile
for the storms current intensity yes
That IS the feature!!!
That IS bizarre!! Especially noting it is located right on Lake Huron....I worked Joplin and Tuscaloosa this yr...not fun.
Out of curiosity..what topic?
AP/IB classes...oh so many years ago. I turned out fine.
Meanwhile over at the Western Africa coast...
ooopes nevere mine then but it did look like they did re move your post but not banned
soory for the mix up
Hey now :)
Another one? Springfield, Mass. was hit very hard earlier this year.
Sorry, but can you help a newbie learn how to interpret these? TIA
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