Dangerous Tropical Storm Irene headed for the Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Irene roared into life last night, transitioning from a tropical wave to a 50 mph tropical storm in just a few short hours. Irene is getting organized quickly, and has the potential to become a hurricane by Monday morning. All interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida should prepare for the arrival of this dangerous storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the strongest winds near 18°N latitude to the north of Irene's center at 8am this morning. After passing through the center, the plane returned to the area of strongest winds two hours later, and found that flight level winds at 5,000 feet had increased by about 5 - 8 mph. However, the pressure in the latest center fix taken at 10am EDT remained the same as two hours previously, 1007 mb, and the plane noted that Irene's center was not circular, signs that the storm still has some work to do before serious intensification can begin. Visible satellite loops and radar out of Martinique show the storm has rapidly organized this morning, with well-developed spiral bands forming and a large area of intense thunderstorms to the north of the center. Irene has shrugged off the dry air that was bothering it yesterday, and wind shear has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. Torrential rains and strong gusty winds are affecting the northern Lesser Antilles this morning. A wind gust of 41 mph was recorded at St. Eustatius at 8am local time.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.
Track forecast for Irene
The computer models are in agreement that Irene will pass just south of Puerto Rico tonight, then hit the south coast of Hispaniola in the Dominican Republic or Haiti on Monday afternoon. Irene should then emerge into the channel between Haiti and Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, when the storm will have 12 or so hours over water before having to contend with Cuba. A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene to the northwest and north by Thursday. The timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most likely path for Irene is a track just east of the Florida Peninsula and into Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina by next weekend, but a landfall near Miami then directly up the Florida Peninsula is also a reasonable solution--like Tropical Storm Fay of 2008 did. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives.
Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.
Harvey hits Belize
Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall at 2pm EDT on Saturday near Dangriga Town, Belize, as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Harvey continues to dump very heavy rains on southern Mexico, but dissipation is expected tonight as the storm pushes inland. Harvey was a small storm, and the strongest winds were confined to a short stretch of coast near where the center came ashore. Winds at Belize City, Belize on Saturday topped out at 15 mph.
Figure 3. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.
Invest 98L northwest of the Cape Verde Islands
A tropical wave few hundred miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, Invest 98L, has become disorganized and lost most of its heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving over colder waters and encountering drier air, and NHC is giving 98L only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The latest set of model runs keep 98L well out to sea away from any land areas over the next five days.
Links
Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Anywhere in the CONE ..is not in the clear.
I know. Making me verklempt.
We all know how it's his favorite number... :o)
Thanks. Is it swarming season? I think I've just indentified them on google as carpenter ants. From the pictures carpenter ants bodies look bigger than termites. Guess I have to look at where they are coming from during day light tomorrow. (no big worries as the house is CONCRETE BLOCK with a few wood posts out here on the patio.) Just creepy and annoying. I LIVE out here!
And if you see them parachuting out of the sky, you are in a bad "B" movie.
Looks nearly identical to Hugo's track over Puerto Rico. Albeit being more westward.
In my opinion that would count!
That sounded so...wrong.
Well I will say it again. Irene is not going into the Eastern GOM.
Moved about a year ago. Still own my house in Jax.
Can't sell it in this market. Have it rented however. I do have an interest in Jax effects from Irene! Glad to see you blogging here on occasion.
Gotcha and also respect your opinion.....You think Irene can make Cane status in spite of her pending brush with PR (rather than post-PR)? She really appears to firing on all cylinders at the moment....
I'm chilled...You're the one who needs to chill. It was also a joke, smart one.
I doubt they will move it. If they did, it would be no further than the TVCN, just offshore EFL
how can u tell
how long in is recon is end there be for noaa fight takes overe?
Trough isn't lifting out yet.
Yep..PR is about to get smacked!!
by looking at the rader
San Juan is getting some pretty strong gusts but no new bands of rain.But it will not be long before the real deal arrives.
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve
Well in that case, we are just fine.
Occasionally is the key word. You can see how that is working out tonite!..LOL If you have a Facebook account hit me up there EJ. I update all the time on the tropics.
ROFL! Yes, if they are over 20 stories tall and "flying" space ships, you are in a B movie.
well well well look oh we have here
hi atmosweather long time no see
It depends on if we still have recon investigating up until landfall. I've said all day that I thought Irene didn't have enough time to become a hurricane before making landfall in PR. If she can manage to scoot south of the island, then it's certainly possible. However, I think it'll stop just shy of hurricane status before making landfall. Luckily, we should have recon to confirm what's happening up until landfall.
Omg this graphic is playing tricks on my eyes!
winds picking up in Ponce, nothing bad yet
calling my friends in the southeast, no response
my dad was reporting strong gusts an hour ago in the north northeast (metro)
Yikes Miami!!
Who needs papers? It's obvious that it happens...
al092011_track.png (1280×1024)
5:12pm, 31.1 kts (during storm approach, sw quadrant)
8:06 pm 36.9 kts (as storm departed, se quadrant)
This confirms a couple of things:
1) The stronger winds in the SE "eyewall" that is reportedly forming
2) The field of strong 30+kt winds will have a diameter of about 45 miles (because in 3 hours at 15mph the storm moved 45 miles)
Puerto rico has a width, top to bottom, of 40 miles according to Wikipedia. So the center of the storm will likely be disrupted and will need a half day or so to reorganize after PR.
Viewing: 4501 - 4551
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