Hurricane Irene continues to become better organized, takes aim at Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale, and continues to be a U.S. landfall threat for anywhere from southern Florida to North Carolina. In the 5pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Irene had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Irene is moving west-northwest at 13 mph along the northern Hispaniola coastline. Estimates from radar suggest Puerto Rico has seen anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rain from Irene so far, with the heaviest rain probably being enhanced by topography. Satellite imagery shows a new burst of intense thunderstorm activity began near the center of the hurricane this afternoon, and despite land interaction, Irene continues to become larger and better organized, with tropical storm-force (39 mph) winds extending 160 miles away from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found maximum sustained winds just above 80 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 988 millibars. The strongest winds continue to be found on the north side of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for this evening, and a NOAA Gulfstream is on its way to Irene as I type.
Figure 1. True-color image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:20am EDT Monday August 22, 2011, shortly after Irene moved off the coast of Puerto Rico. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Track forecast for Irene
The models agree that the center of Irene will stay north of Hispaniola, which will allow the storm to continue to organize. The question that remains is how the trough of low pressure, which is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, will affect Hurricane Irene. The timing and strength of this trough, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, will determine just how quick Irene will turn away from the U.S. coast, if at all. This afternoon, the GFDL has finally started to inch its forecast track to the east, with a landfall in southern Florida. Both the HWRF and the UKMET models are suggesting a landfall in South Carolina, and the ECMWF and the GFS are forecasting a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a track north of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, and through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. While the center of the Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has Irene making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction. The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas.
Intensity forecast for Irene
The environment around Hurricane Irene remains moist, and wind shear is expected to remain relatively low (5 to 15 knots) along its forecast path over the next 5 days. Sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough (29-30°C) to support intensification to a major hurricane (category 3+). Irene is still disorganized on its south side due to land interaction and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 2 hurricane tomorrow evening as it moves away from Hispaniola. Beyond that, Irene will most likely intensify into a category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. Like Jeff said this morning, however, Irene could just as easily remain a category 2, or even reach category 4 wind speeds. In any case, Irene will be a powerful hurricane and a serious threat to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.
Angela
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 — Blog Index
Irene looking good on satellite. Happy I get to watch her from afar on the west coast of FL.
Now to go back to the old one and try to catch up a tiny bit. :)
Jo
the ECMWF and the GFS are forecasting a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina
Thanks Angela but the ECWMF is actually going inland into NC and then riding up the east coast..
When the 00z information comes in, we will know where Irene will go.
From the previous blog
1927. ProgressivePulse 9:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2011 +1
Quoting DookiePBC:
As expected the cone shifted eastward. I just wonder how much further east the cone can shift. Will be really interesting once all the HH data and weather balloon information is taken into account. Starting to feel safer with each shift in SE FL though. Lotta friends in Freeport though!! :-( for them!!
The cone shifted east above the closest approach to SEFL. Still splitting Grand Bahama, same as 11am. 56 miles from West Palm to west end, looks to be about 80 miles at the closest approach on the current track.
Im working out of town, staying in sanford, nc. Just watch wral forecaster really downplay the system. Big difference from the mets around home. the wral met pretty much said yeah, its projected to come over us, but 1 out of three times the storm is outside the cone.....what kinda screwed up mets yall get in this neck of the woods?
They're right. If the center tracks east of Raleigh, the effects will be minimal in the Triangle area.
From previous:kman had answered it already, and did a good job of it, I might add.
...and as big as she is,
her aim doesn't require much skill!
Thanks Angela
saw it...Thanks Kman!!
"Like Jeff said this morning, however, Irene could just as easily remain a category 2, or even reach category 4 wind speeds."
Will the wind field on Irene's western side be large enough to bring tropical force winds to portions of so. Fla.?
You can never truly know anything in meteorology. It's all a game of educated guessing and inferring.
THAT would be interesting!
I can agree with that. Maybe not a strong 4....
This looks really bad. I hope our friends up the east coast are getting prepared.
Even a slight chance of rain here in Texas would keep my spirits up.
I would think we would see light TS conditions 30-40mph with gusts to 50 or so.
The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas.
It's a never-ending fight Press!
West side is improving from the dry air......should become very circular in formation soon.
Most storms tend to be more powerful in the northeast quadrant vs the others. The only exception are annular hurricanes which are very rare. She is asymmetrical right now due to the land interaction that she had with PR and will have to its south with Hispanola.
im ready :)
Intensifying storm no doubt. Convective burst over the center.
Maybe even western Mass! I live there, I am watching her closely for my area. I can't believe I have to do that! haha.
Do you expect that to continue to ease eastward? Or joggle back and forth for a couple of days?
btw...there is no such place as the "Carolinas"...ya gotta pick one or the other...
Hurricane Irene - a major threat to the United States 8/22/11
I've given up, even the local WFO says it.
MSNBC has this interesting hurricane tracker web app.
From the latest NHC advisory it would seem so on the coast.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.
so....you're sayin'....Charleston is completely in the clear? ;-)
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2011 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 19:41:58 N Lon : 68:18:54 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 983.6mb/ 69.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.4 4.4
Viewing: 1 - 51
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 — Blog Index