Hurricane Irene continues to become better organized, takes aim at Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale, and continues to be a U.S. landfall threat for anywhere from southern Florida to North Carolina. In the 5pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Irene had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Irene is moving west-northwest at 13 mph along the northern Hispaniola coastline. Estimates from radar suggest Puerto Rico has seen anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rain from Irene so far, with the heaviest rain probably being enhanced by topography. Satellite imagery shows a new burst of intense thunderstorm activity began near the center of the hurricane this afternoon, and despite land interaction, Irene continues to become larger and better organized, with tropical storm-force (39 mph) winds extending 160 miles away from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found maximum sustained winds just above 80 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 988 millibars. The strongest winds continue to be found on the north side of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for this evening, and a NOAA Gulfstream is on its way to Irene as I type.
Figure 1. True-color image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:20am EDT Monday August 22, 2011, shortly after Irene moved off the coast of Puerto Rico. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Track forecast for Irene
The models agree that the center of Irene will stay north of Hispaniola, which will allow the storm to continue to organize. The question that remains is how the trough of low pressure, which is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, will affect Hurricane Irene. The timing and strength of this trough, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, will determine just how quick Irene will turn away from the U.S. coast, if at all. This afternoon, the GFDL has finally started to inch its forecast track to the east, with a landfall in southern Florida. Both the HWRF and the UKMET models are suggesting a landfall in South Carolina, and the ECMWF and the GFS are forecasting a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a track north of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, and through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. While the center of the Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has Irene making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction. The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas.
Intensity forecast for Irene
The environment around Hurricane Irene remains moist, and wind shear is expected to remain relatively low (5 to 15 knots) along its forecast path over the next 5 days. Sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough (29-30°C) to support intensification to a major hurricane (category 3+). Irene is still disorganized on its south side due to land interaction and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 2 hurricane tomorrow evening as it moves away from Hispaniola. Beyond that, Irene will most likely intensify into a category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. Like Jeff said this morning, however, Irene could just as easily remain a category 2, or even reach category 4 wind speeds. In any case, Irene will be a powerful hurricane and a serious threat to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.
Angela
Reader Comments
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That looks pretty accurate. Lol
ah...Hugo hit South Carolina...Levi referenced North Carolina....they are, contrary to popular belief, entirely different places....
I have been monitoring that, agreed that isnt good at all! banding on the south, over land!?!?
wow wow wow
they this found 978mb
978.0 mb
(~ 28.88 inHg)
? Where? HH nowhere near the centre yet.
Don't quote a troll, a lot of people have it on ignore.
Similar tracks mean anything but similar conditions.
Based on the satellite imagery, the coast of Hispaniola isn't affecting the storm much, if at all. The storm's nearly symmetrical now, and rapid intensification is becoming more likely. Expect, at the least, a solid and steady strengthening trend to begin shortly...
You're just bitter because she's heading due west toward the Bahamas like I predicted.
Lol yah Mass doesn't not need a hurricane. Just moved from eastern Mass to Colorado for school and might have been good timing. GFS has been pretty consistent on another landfall between Long Island and Cape Cod. Euro has shown it too.
Where?
Not all...Max Mayfield is keeping it real! Says we still have to watch it but it is looking a little better for us, however, we are still in the cone so still have to watch and be prepared. Didn't overhype it though imo.
on the recon report
You got that right...Bahamas could be in trouble here shortly...
...maybe the storm will go a little to the right...but not nearly enough to avoid the US east coast...this is because the steering winds are somewhat deep-layered in this case...and it doesn't matter if the storm is super strong or a moderate storm...it pretty much is heading the same direction at the end of the day...
Love Hurricane cos(x).
I think there is valuable information on this blog. Yes, you have to weed through the trolls and misinformation to find the realities, but there is a huge wealth of info on here. This, and the NHC, is where I turn to get the low-down... and doing my own research.
That might be Irene.
850.7 mb
(~ 25.12 inHg)
on whats up with the recon
People to listen to are.
Levi, MississippiWX, Patrap, Drakoen, MiamiHurricanes09, and a few others I know I'm missing.
But really, NHC is usually the best people to listen too as they've got all the fancy fun toys that none of us have.
I will say that I find it highly unlikely that Irene will recurve out to sea without a CONUS hit. Less likely than it hitting Florida. That's just my opinion, however.
Unfortunately, it's 2011 and times have changed. Waters are warmer. Since we've never seen it before, it doesn't mean it won't happen. Millions of people need to watch this storm. Mother nature is unpredictable no matter how hard we try to forecast her.
It's amazing how something so vicious can be so beautiful...
what an odd surface wind layoutr
Ok first off, they don't update track at 8pm, and what evidence do you have to show that it will shift east? Show me.
18.000N 66.150W
978.0 mb
Is that even near the center?
not sure what your looking at its on track from what im looking at but if it is going more north the less chance the lower 48 will be hit.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg
When you look at this visible over the infrared....I am thinking otherwise...this almost looks like Rita just before she exploded in the Florida Straits....
Viewing: 451 - 501
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